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Jawad Mian Profile picture
@jsmian
Sep 11, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
The latest issue of Stray Reflections has been published.

Since it’s been a year of lingering regrets for investors, we explain why regret persists in a bull market.

You only have two choices to do something about it.

stray-reflections.com/article/153/Wo…
After outlining the bullish case in April and May, next we turn to the reasons for our cautious tactical stance.

While Masa is in the news again as the “Nasdaq whale” there are good reasons why market weakness persists.

stray-reflections.com/article/154/Th…
Regretfully, we also reverse our long-standing optimism for peace in the Middle East. This seems paradoxical to the recent news of UAE-Israeli friendship.

We present a theological perspective in which to place contemporary events.
The Middle East is undergoing a major transformation, but it is entirely possible to know exactly what will happen in the future.

Within the field of eschatology, the Abrahamic religions display certain convergences. This is a must read. 👇stray-reflections.com/article/155/Wo…
Finally, we turn to Bruce Lee for wisdom. He wove the spiritual and physical aspects of martial arts into a way of life.

If I could choose one person to learn from in the past one hundred years, it would be him.

stray-reflections.com/article/156/St…

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More from @jsmian

Jawad Mian Profile picture
Jun 27, 2023
1) There are times when you learn something that explains everything.

While manufacturing activity is acutely sensitive to business cycles, did you know that services GDP did not shrink from one year to the next between the Korean war and the Great Recession?

That was a period… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
2) Monthly business surveys show manufacturing has been contracting since November, and the downturn is confirmed by falls in container freight, diesel consumption, and industrial electricity sales. 

The ISM manufacturing PMI is below the 50-point threshold, consistent with the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
3) We are in a period very much like those ten recessions between 1950 and 2007, which saw manufacturing contract but services continue to expand.

This is an economic recession without a labor market recession. 

Are we going to see the labor market crack?

Is the recession… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 5 tweets
Jawad Mian Profile picture
Jun 12, 2023
1) If you are waiting for a recession or trying to figure out why the US economy has not yet entered a recession...

What if I told you something else is going on? 🧵
2) Historically, manufacturing has been acutely sensitive to business cycles.

Services GDP has not really shrunk from one year to the next from the Korean war until the Great Recession. That was a period encompassing 10 recessions.
3) Monthly business surveys show manufacturing has been contracting since November, and the downturn is confirmed by falls in container freight, diesel consumption, and industrial electricity sales.
Read 14 tweets
Jawad Mian Profile picture
May 24, 2023
1) I didn’t think it was possible, but I returned from my New York trip even more bullish.

I hosted a breakfast with long/short managers, a dinner with a younger group of CIOs and portfolio managers, and met one-on-one with various investors.

🧵
2) The macro folks are worried about rates volatility, the contraction in money supply, and tightening lending standards. 

The equity guys are puzzled by the resilient earnings season and stock market going up despite bad breadth.

The credit investors are surprisingly not as… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
3) Could it be the popularity of private credit is more of a business development opportunity than an investing one?
Read 7 tweets
Jawad Mian Profile picture
Apr 1, 2023
1) “What’s your dream?”

My friend’s question surprised me.

Even more surprising was my silence; I didn’t have an answer.

🧵
2) That is so strange, I thought. I had spent my entire twenties dreaming.

When did I stop?
3) “It’s the possibility of a dream coming true that makes life interesting,” Paulo Coelho wrote in The Alchemist.

It was the book that first got me dreaming.
Read 15 tweets
Jawad Mian Profile picture
Mar 24, 2023
1) Fasting has become popular for its health benefits. But what has always interested me is the spiritual dimension.

In every culture and religion in history, fasting has endured as an instinctive and essential practice. 

Learn more 🧵
2) Prophet Moses fasted for 40 days and 40 nights when he was waiting for the revelation on the mountain of Sinai.
3) The gospels record Prophet Jesus fasted for 40 days before undergoing an intense confrontation with Satan.
Read 18 tweets
Jawad Mian Profile picture
Mar 21, 2023
1) Since mid-June, we have believed that the stock market is in a bottoming phase that will result in new highs.

Others believe that the sideways consolidation is a continuation pattern with a soon-to-be completed break to new lows.

Who is correct? 🧵 Image
2) Why it matters: More investment mistakes arise from a dogmatic mindset than from uncertainty and confusion.
3) “The constant lesson of history is the dominant role played by surprise,” as Peter Bernstein once said.

“Just when we are most comfortable with an environment and come to believe we finally understand it, the ground shifts under our feet.”
Read 11 tweets

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