Jawad Mian Profile picture
Sep 11, 2020 18 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1) It has been exactly nineteen years since the 9/11 attacks.

I suspect there’s not a single person who does not remember where they were, or what they were doing when they heard the news.
2) It was my first day of class at university in Canada. I was seventeen and far away from my family for the very first time.
3) I nervously left my room in the morning, worrying about getting lost looking for the building where I was meant to go for my history course.
4) I took two steps and a dorm mate struck me as he hurried across the floor.

“The Twin Towers were attacked,” he shouted, as I leaned down to pick up my folders.
5) I was dazed. “What Twin Towers?” I thought. I had no idea what he meant.

As I proceeded to walk from one building to another, I noticed students crowd around the television sets.
6) I could tell they were watching news but I couldn’t figure out what had happened. I did not want to be late for my very first class so I did not stop to inquire either.
7) Finally, I arrived at the lecture hall. The professor was already standing at the front of the room. I felt uneasiness in the air as I took my seat.
8) And then, almost in slow motion, the professor broke the news. So many concerned hands darted up in the air, and a chorus of questions filled the room.

But nobody had answers.
9) I was still unable to fathom what had transpired. I tried to jog my mind for an image of the World Trade Center but I came up with nothing.
10) I did not know what the Twin Towers even looked like.

The names Al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden were just as unfamiliar.
11) But deep down, I sensed the world had changed. I’m sure so did everyone else.

But no one could fathom or articulate how exactly it had changed.
12) The immediate response was America’s woefully misguided "War on Terror" that wreaked havoc in the Middle East.
13) "Once citizens have seen the terrorist drama of the World Trade Center collapsing," wrote @harari_yuval, "the state feels compelled to stage an equally spectacular counterdrama, with even more fire and smoke."
14) The war did not only fail to stop the spread of terrorism, it strengthened terrorists and slid the world into a vicious cycle of escalating violence and increasing insecurity.
15) By 2016, terrorism was at an all-time high, battle deaths from conflict at a 25-year high, and the number of refugees and displaced people (57 million) at a level not seen in 60 years.
16) There had been over 61,000 terrorist attacks globally, killing more than 140,000 people. Nine times more people were killed from terrorism than there were in 2000.
17) I feel that way again in 2020.

We will all remember where we were when Covid struck and the world shutdown.
18) We can all sense the world has changed in a big way.

But it's hard to fathom how exactly or what will transpire next.

It just feels ominous.

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More from @jsmian

Jun 27, 2023
1) There are times when you learn something that explains everything.

While manufacturing activity is acutely sensitive to business cycles, did you know that services GDP did not shrink from one year to the next between the Korean war and the Great Recession?

That was a period… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
2) Monthly business surveys show manufacturing has been contracting since November, and the downturn is confirmed by falls in container freight, diesel consumption, and industrial electricity sales. 

The ISM manufacturing PMI is below the 50-point threshold, consistent with the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
3) We are in a period very much like those ten recessions between 1950 and 2007, which saw manufacturing contract but services continue to expand.

This is an economic recession without a labor market recession. 

Are we going to see the labor market crack?

Is the recession… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 5 tweets
Jun 12, 2023
1) If you are waiting for a recession or trying to figure out why the US economy has not yet entered a recession...

What if I told you something else is going on? 🧵
2) Historically, manufacturing has been acutely sensitive to business cycles.

Services GDP has not really shrunk from one year to the next from the Korean war until the Great Recession. That was a period encompassing 10 recessions.
3) Monthly business surveys show manufacturing has been contracting since November, and the downturn is confirmed by falls in container freight, diesel consumption, and industrial electricity sales.
Read 14 tweets
May 24, 2023
1) I didn’t think it was possible, but I returned from my New York trip even more bullish.

I hosted a breakfast with long/short managers, a dinner with a younger group of CIOs and portfolio managers, and met one-on-one with various investors.

🧵
2) The macro folks are worried about rates volatility, the contraction in money supply, and tightening lending standards. 

The equity guys are puzzled by the resilient earnings season and stock market going up despite bad breadth.

The credit investors are surprisingly not as… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
3) Could it be the popularity of private credit is more of a business development opportunity than an investing one?
Read 7 tweets
Apr 1, 2023
1) “What’s your dream?”

My friend’s question surprised me.

Even more surprising was my silence; I didn’t have an answer.

🧵
2) That is so strange, I thought. I had spent my entire twenties dreaming.

When did I stop?
3) “It’s the possibility of a dream coming true that makes life interesting,” Paulo Coelho wrote in The Alchemist.

It was the book that first got me dreaming.
Read 15 tweets
Mar 24, 2023
1) Fasting has become popular for its health benefits. But what has always interested me is the spiritual dimension.

In every culture and religion in history, fasting has endured as an instinctive and essential practice. 

Learn more 🧵
2) Prophet Moses fasted for 40 days and 40 nights when he was waiting for the revelation on the mountain of Sinai.
3) The gospels record Prophet Jesus fasted for 40 days before undergoing an intense confrontation with Satan.
Read 18 tweets
Mar 21, 2023
1) Since mid-June, we have believed that the stock market is in a bottoming phase that will result in new highs.

Others believe that the sideways consolidation is a continuation pattern with a soon-to-be completed break to new lows.

Who is correct? 🧵 Image
2) Why it matters: More investment mistakes arise from a dogmatic mindset than from uncertainty and confusion.
3) “The constant lesson of history is the dominant role played by surprise,” as Peter Bernstein once said.

“Just when we are most comfortable with an environment and come to believe we finally understand it, the ground shifts under our feet.”
Read 11 tweets

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