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Tom Bonier Profile picture
@tbonier
Sep 11, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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A quick thread on where the vote by mail (VBM) requests stand at this point. Sorry for the megachart, I'll explain as I go! Image
First, all of the partisan data in here is modeled party, for the sake of consistency.

Looking at this column, we see that Dems lead in VBM requests in every state but 4 (AR, ID, IN, MI).

Keep in mind, this includes automatic/permanent VBM requests, which may explain MI. Image
Compare this to the partisan distribution of the 2016 electorate in these 15 states, where Dems trailed in all but 5 of the 15 states. Again, this is generic modeled partisanship of the voters who cast a ballot in '16. Image
Comparing the Dem ID margin of the VBM requests in these states to the Dem ID margin of the '16 electorate we find that the VBM requests are more Dem than the '16 electorate in every state. Wide margins in several states, including VA, WI, PA. MI also looks better in this context Image
Looking at the share of VBM requests coming from voters who did not cast a ballot in '16, Dems lead Republicans in key states, including FL, ME, MI, PA, and WI. Image
That's all for now, work to do, will share more thoughts later. Thanks for following!

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More from @tbonier

Tom Bonier Profile picture
May 2
Debunking the popular theory that Nikki Haley's relatively substantial support in GOP primaries has been due to Dem leaning voters flooding the GOP primary vote, thereby suggesting that Haley's strong showing isn't actually a bad sign for Trump...
We recently analyzed the GOP primary individual turnout history in the NC primary. Haley won 23% there. Looking at the unaffiliated voters who comprised one-third of the GOP vote, there is no indication that these voters were Dems seeking to stop Trump.
They were not substantially younger than the GOP voters (41% over 65 vs 45% among reg GOPs). They were overwhelmingly white (94% of Inds vs 97% of GOPs), and were actually more likely to be men (51% of Ind GOP primary voters vs 50% of GOPs).
Read 4 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Apr 18
Here's my grand* unified theory of this presidential race, and why I feel like the Biden team should feel pretty good about their standing:

*this is not all that novel or deep
Polls are consistently showing Biden faring much better among "likely voters" relative to all registered voters or American adults. We can quibble about what a likely voter is, but the same thing is apparent if you filter on past turnout history.
If I can channel @DougJBalloon (and invert things), here's why this is good news for Biden:
Read 8 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Mar 13
I've got a few mins, so I'll share my observations as I go through the new Suffolk poll released this morning.

suffolk.edu/-/media/suffol…
On the first page of tabs, a look at the sample. Remember, this is registered voters. So voters age 65+ are 22% of this poll's sample, but will be closer to 35% of ballots cast. More in a second on what that means... Image
On Biden's job approval, you get the first sign of what I'd call "age inversion". The older the voter, the more likely it is they approve of the job the President is doing. This isn't new, but traditionally younger voters would be stronger. Image
Read 18 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Mar 3
Lots of fun dismissive jokes today about "crosstab truthing" towards anyone raising any concerns about this poll, but this is perhaps the more insidious counterweight to questioning crosstabs: lending them lots of credibility when they support your priors, ignore when they don't.
If you're going to write a story about how Biden is hurting with young voters based on one poll, shouldn't you write a follow up story now talking about how Biden has miraculously rallied back support among young voters? (trick question, you should write neither)
"Crosstab truthing" isn't the problem. Crosstab credence is. Remember in 2022 when, prior to the election, many stories were written about supposed wild swings to the GOP among independent women? Crosstab credence was to blame.
Read 6 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Feb 18
Some of the loudest messaging right now is Dems/progs demanding that we all admit that Biden is old, and "deal with it".

Here's a newsflash - everyone is aware of his age. I understand why it might worry you, because the stakes are so high. But what are we asking for here?
Not a single voter will be convinced to change their mind if they think Biden's age is a concern. They can be convinced of two things:

- All evidence suggests he has been a very capable president, regardless

- The alternative is far, far worse

So maybe let's focus on that?
These Dem voices are a problem. They validate more press coverage and keep the message front and center. If we are talking about signs of aging, Trump is clearly far worse, yet you don't see those stories written because GOPers don't handwring about it endlessly.
Read 5 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Feb 12
NY3 Special Election Eve Wrap Up Thread:

The early in person votes have all been cast now, with >60k votes ready to be counted. By party reg they are +10 Dem (ie, the share of early votes cast by reg Dems is 10 pts higher than that of GOPs). That's a 2.8 pt improvement on '22.
The mail votes will continue to trickle in over the coming days, but I wouldn't expect to see more than a few thousand more come in. About 13k have been returned, and by party reg they are +29D, compared to +26 in '22.
So the early vote overall is just under two points more Dem than it was in '22. The most common question I've heard over the past few days is if Dems lost the seat by 7.5 pts, does a roughly 3 pt improvement in the early vote mean they are running behind?
Read 9 tweets

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