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Tom Bonier Profile picture
@tbonier
Sep 11, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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A quick thread on where the vote by mail (VBM) requests stand at this point. Sorry for the megachart, I'll explain as I go! Image
First, all of the partisan data in here is modeled party, for the sake of consistency.

Looking at this column, we see that Dems lead in VBM requests in every state but 4 (AR, ID, IN, MI).

Keep in mind, this includes automatic/permanent VBM requests, which may explain MI. Image
Compare this to the partisan distribution of the 2016 electorate in these 15 states, where Dems trailed in all but 5 of the 15 states. Again, this is generic modeled partisanship of the voters who cast a ballot in '16. Image
Comparing the Dem ID margin of the VBM requests in these states to the Dem ID margin of the '16 electorate we find that the VBM requests are more Dem than the '16 electorate in every state. Wide margins in several states, including VA, WI, PA. MI also looks better in this context Image
Looking at the share of VBM requests coming from voters who did not cast a ballot in '16, Dems lead Republicans in key states, including FL, ME, MI, PA, and WI. Image
That's all for now, work to do, will share more thoughts later. Thanks for following!

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More from @tbonier

Tom Bonier Profile picture
Sep 13
I've seen a lot of mostly GOP-aligned accounts here in recent days/weeks sharing voter registration stats for the past 4 years showing GOP advantages in voter registration. These stats are generally quite misleading, here's why.
The biggest reason: their exclusion of unaffiliated voters in their stats, and a failure to further explore who is registering unaffiliated. The reality is that Gen Z is less likely to register with a party, but still overwhelmingly Dem.
Here's PA new voter registration data, as an example. Notice how each cycle has seen an increase in voters registering unaffiliated. Image
Read 5 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Sep 6
So over the past couple of days, Nate Silver has been tweeting multiple times a day insisting that things are looking worse and worse for the Harris campaign.

One state he claims has moved 1.2 pts to Trump since the convention is WI. Let's take a look at the recent polls there. Image
6 of 10 post convention polls show Harris leading, by an average margin of 7 points. But the two GOP highschool kids' poll has the race even, Trafalgar (leaders of the red wave polls of '22) have Trump up 1, and then one Dem pollster I'm not familiar with had the race even.
Silver showed the most movement towards Trump in NC. So let's look at the post convention polls there...

It's the highschool kids again! And InsiderAdvantage, one of the four horseman of the red wave polling of '22 apocalypse. And a new red-waver.. SoCal strategies, a GOP firm! Image
Read 4 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Sep 6
We now have voter file updates for 38 states that cover the week of July 21st, affording us the opportunity to quantify the reaction of the electorate to VP Harris as the nominee.
Our analysis compares new registrations during the week of 7/21/2024 to the same week in 2020, for the sake of consistency. Overall, total registrations were actually slightly down in 2024, relative to 2020 (289k to 283k). But what do the subgroups show?
First, looking at partisanship. We use modeled party ID, because not all states allow voters to register with a party. The results are stark. The 2020 new reg was +3 GOP. As Harris took over the ticket, new registrants were +22 D. Image
Read 8 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Sep 6
At long last, we have a PA voter file update that includes the week of July 21st, after VP Harris ascended to the top of the ticket....
Okay, first, when compared to the same week in 2020, total new registrations increased by 34.3% in PA in the week following Biden's withdrawal. Dem registration increased by 46.6%, GOP by 21.1%.
Demographically, once again (as we have seen in other states over this same time period) young voters led the way. New registrations among voters under 30 increased by a shocking 59.6%, relative to 2020.
Read 4 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Aug 27
The Harris Effect - in the 13 states that have updated voter files since July 21st, we are seeing incredible surges in voter registration relative to the same time period in 2024, driven by women, voters of color, and young voters. Image
Young Black women are leading the way, seeing their registration almost triple, relative to the same point in 2020. Young Hispanic women aren't far behind, with a 150% increase in registration. Black women overall have almost doubled their registration numbers from 2020.
These changes are, unsurprisingly, substantially to the benefit of Democrats. Democratic registration has increased by over 50%, as compared to only 7% for Republicans. These new registrants are modeled as +20 pts Dem, as compared to +6 during the same week in 2020.
Read 4 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Aug 25
Okay, when I have time I'll do a deeper dive on post-candidate changeover voter registration trends, because it seems we are witnessing something important happening, and while we obsess over polls, quantifying actions taken by voters can be more helpful.

First up, Michigan.
Looking at the week after July 21st, we saw an immediate increase in women registering to vote. In that time period, the gender gap was +7 women, while there was effectively no gender gap in new registrations during that same week in 2020. We also saw 26% more new registrations. Image
Also, compare the +7 women gender gap in new registrantions in Michigan during the week immediately after Harris stepped up to the top of the ticket to the week immediately preceding where there was a gap of just 1.3 pts. Image
Read 7 tweets

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