taha Profile picture
11 Sep, 25 tweets, 5 min read
The single most important paper written about the post-9/11 era is "The epistemological crisis of counterterrorism" by Richard Jackson's in 2015.

Here is what he said, a thread:
Jackson identifies the troubling idea at the core of the American, and ultimately the western, post-9/11 response.

It’s this idea that leads to the occupation of Iraq, Afghanistan, Guantanamo Bay, The Patriot Act and much more.

It starts with a dude called Donald Rumsfeld.
Donald Rumsfeld was the Secretary of Defense during the Bush Administration (from 2001 - 2006).

In a 2002 news briefing he introduced the world to the idea that is now the basis of all major counterterrorism strategies across the world.
He said:

“There are known knowns. There are things we know we know.

We also know, There are known unknowns... We know there are some things we do not know.

But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”

Okay. That’s all pretty confusing. Lets unpack that.

• Known Knowns: Things I am sure I know.

I know my name, I know what the colour of the sky is, I know how an apple tastes etc. Pretty simple.
• Known Unknowns: Things I know I don’t know.

Idk how tall Usain Bolt is & I can identify that I don’t know that.

I can google the answer but right now I don’t know.

To find something out, you need to be able to identify the gap in your knowledge and then find the answer.
This is the basic method of intelligence gathering, research and generally how we find stuff out.

You say, “hmm - I don’t know this, lemmie google it.”

You know that you don’t know the answer and then you try to find out.
Then there’s the third category:

Unknown unknowns.

These are things we don’t know AND we are oblivious to the fact we don’t know.

A literal newborn baby doesn’t know how tall Usain Bolt is either.

BUT the baby doesn’t even know it doesn’t have that knowledge (what an idiot).
There is no way that you can seek out a piece of information if you literally don’t even know that you are oblivious.

This is what Donald Rumsfeld identifies as a major problem for intelligence and counterterrorism.
Rumsfeld’s idea goes like this:

How do we prevent another attack?

• If we know how & when it’s going to happen we can stop it.

• If we known we don’t know we can work to find out and then to stop it.
BUT if we don’t know and we are completely oblivious that we are unaware (unknown unknown) we literally can’t even find out because we don’t even know that there is a gap in our knowledge.

So what do we do?
This is where “The Cheney Doctrine” comes in:

Essentially, to solve this, they decided that if something COULD happen, they should treat it as if it WILL happen.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_One_P…
This is different from before.
It used to be that if there is evidence that something will happen, the response will reflect the evidence.

Seems reasonable, it’s how we live our life.

If it’s likely to rain, we’ll take an umbrella. If you’re in a heatwave, you don’t.
The Cheney Doctrine means that, they don’t need to consider how likely something is or even if there is any evidence for it to be a reasonable response.

They just need to imagine if it is even possible and if it is, act as if it is definitely happening just in case.
This way, they problem of “unknown unknowns” is ‘solved’.

We no longer need to find out about the attackers plans, when they plan to attack or even if attackers exist.

We just need to imagine every possibility and respond as if it is a certainty.
This is a complete departure from the traditional world of intelligence gathering and responding to the intelligence.

Decisions are no longer based on information, they are based on if it CAN happen.
This is how the new era of pre-emptive, aggressive post-9/11 counterterrorism was born.

Is it possible that Iraq has WMDs? Yes.

Do we have evidence? No.

Does that matter? No. We must treat it as a real & imminent threat because there MIGHT be evidence that we don’t know about.
This type of counterterrorist paranoia as seeped into all types of counterterrorism policy decisions.

These decisions are not only ineffective but actively dangerous.
If we are no longer measuring our response to the evidence, can we even use our resources effectively?

Are we not creating a culture where the norm is to be terrified and suspicious of everyone? Especially everyday muslims?
If the everyday muslim is actively demonised, the culture being created plays directly into the propaganda ISIS uses to recruit and radicalise. (their propaganda is based on the idea that muslims have no place in the west and are unwelcome)
We know that when pre-emptive action is taken without evidence, it breeds radicalisation.

When people feel unjustly victimised and unreasonably demonised - people are vulnerable to radicalisation.
Counterterrorism needs to be about preventing radicalisation whilst also preventing threats.

When it tries to solve the issue of “the unknown unknown” by treating every possibility as a known known.

The consequences are disastrous.
If you see this type of thinking or rhetoric I hope this thread gives you the tools to understand why it is dangerous and resist this dangerous way of conceptualising counterterrorism.

“A wise man proportions his beliefs to the evidence” - David Hume
I have linked Richard Jackson’s full article here.

However, this tweet may get taken down for copyright but I don’t really know how that works.
dropbox.com/s/2x0b0k3oobp4…
Twitter is a garbonzo bean of a website so I imagine this thread will result in a large amount of bots, spam and racism in the replies.

Don’t engage with trolls, it only helps them algorithmically.

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More from @KhanStopMe

20 Feb 19
I fly a lot. A thread of what I learned:

• Never check bags. Pack for max 10 days & do laundry.

• Jetlag hits you on the second night. Use melatonin.

• When you get off the plane, speed walk to passport control. You save a minute of queuing for every person you pass.
• Cabin pressure & lack of movement is bad for blood circulation. Regular stretches & movement prevents aching.

• Cabin air is dry. Moisturise skin & lips often.

• Watching films dries your eyes quickly, you’ll feel rough afterwards. Podcasts, music & audiobooks are better.
• Ask for upgrades at the gate everytime. Sometimes they’re really cheap.

• Noise cancelling headphones are essential.

• Neck pillows aren’t worth the hassle. Eye masks are worth it.

• Always have a powerbank. Don’t count on inflight power or entertainment.
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