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Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷 Profile picture
@OliverStuenkel
Sep 12, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
In a remarkable strategic bet, Brazil's president Bolsonaro decided to renew a tax-free ethanol import quota used entirely by US producers. The move will help Trump with rural voters, but was bitterly opposed by Brazil's farm lobby, integral part of Bolsonaro's support base.
Over the past weeks, Brazil's Foreign Minister Ernesto Araújo, a staunch Trump ally who described the US president as the "savior of the West" repeatedly clashed with Tereza Cristina, Brazil's Minister of Agriculture over how to respond to US pressure.
Araújo's decision to lobby on behalf of Trump is in part motivated by his effort to keep his own job. Araújo is seen as very obnoxious by the entire foreign policy establishment in DC, and he would probably not be seen as a credible interlocutor by the Biden administration.
Another reason why Bolsonaro may have decided to cede to US pressure is that he has so far failed to deliver what Trump wanted from Brazil's president: help the US get rid of Maduro, and reduce Chinese influence in Latin America.

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More from @OliverStuenkel

Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷 Profile picture
Mar 11
O Haiti, país hoje marcado pela anarquia e extrema pobreza, já foi uma potência econômica com ampla influência geopolítica. 🧵👇
Às vésperas de sua independência em 1804 – fruto da primeira e única revolta escrava bem-sucedida nas Américas – Haiti (ainda chamado Saint-Domingue) era o principal produtor mundial de açúcar e café,o que fazia do país caribenho uma peça central do sistema escravista atlântico.
A guerra da independência viu as forças revolucionárias de Saint-Domingue derrotarem ninguém menos que um exército francês de 80.000 homens enviados por Napoleão.
Read 9 tweets
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷 Profile picture
Feb 24
Os EUA pressionaram, durante boa parte do ano de 2022, as Forças Armadas brasileiras a respeitarem o resultado das eleições presidenciais, e parecem ter tido um papel altamente relevante e possivelmente decisivo. 🧵👇
Os EUA montaram uma campanha diplomática cujo principal alvo foram justamente as Forças Armadas brasileiras – identificadas pelos EUA como ator-chave em um momento de fragilidade democrática no Brasil.
Os emissários de Biden deixaram claro que o não reconhecimento do resultado das urnas por parte dos generais levaria a um redução drástica da relação militar dos EUA com o Brasil, ciente de que a cooperação entre os dois países é muito valorizada pelos fardados no Brasil.
Read 7 tweets
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷 Profile picture
Feb 21
One of Joe Biden’s most significant foreign-policy achievements to date remains curiously overlooked. Mounting evidence suggests the US government was crucial to keep pro-Bolsonaro generals at bay in 2022 when Brazil's democracy was on the brink 🧵👇
Court documents related to a recent police raid suggest that Bolsonaro personally edited a decree that would have overturned election results & imprisoned a Supreme Court justice; a general loyal to the president confirmed he would provide the troops needed to carry out the coup
In the end, however, the coup-mongers did not get their way—in part due to divisions within Brazil’s armed forces that were the target of concerted pro-democracy efforts by U.S. President Joe Biden.
Read 8 tweets
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷 Profile picture
Feb 15
The recent revelations of coup-mongering among Brazil's armed forces in late 2022 provide an opportunity to initiate a broader process of reforming civil-military relations in Brazil to assure that the military commits to staying away from politics for good. 🧵👇
The Brazilian military’s impunity after democratization allowed it to propagate myths about its role in Brazilian society. These include the idea that the members of the armed forces are more patriotic than civilian leaders.
Security forces also continue to brand themselves as a “moderating power”: an independent center of political power able to stabilize the country in moments of tension or volatility.
Read 10 tweets
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷 Profile picture
Feb 13
As recentes revelações sobre iniciativas e planos antidemocráticos por integrantes do governo Bolsonaro sugerem que um golpe não aconteceu, acima de tudo, por falta de apoio mais amplo das Forças Armadas brasileiras. 🧵👇
Ainda devem emergir numerosos detalhes daqueles meses conturbados da segunda metade de 2022, mas há indícios de que uma análise mais profunda terá que incluir não apenas o cenário doméstico, mas também o externo.
Os EUA, que pressionaram, durante boa parte do ano de 2022, as Forças Armadas brasileiras a respeitarem o resultado das eleições presidenciais, parecem ter tido um papel altamente relevante e possivelmente decisivo.
Read 9 tweets
Oliver Stuenkel 🇧🇷 Profile picture
Jan 17
O que mais surpreendeu na retórica chinesa durante a campanha presidencial em Taiwan foi o amadorismo na comunicação bruta e deselegante do governo de Xi Jinping em sua tentativa de influenciar o voto taiwanês. 🧵👇
Enquanto as interferências russas nos debates públicos em países democráticos são sutis para que pareçam notícias domésticas ou conteúdo espontâneo, ao governo chinês ainda parece faltar habilidade para interferir na opinião pública em democracias.
Enquanto o governo russo produz vídeos engajadores e muitas vezes divertidos para viralizarem nas redes sociais no país-alvo, a comunicação chinesa mantém muitas vezes um tom oficial, previsível e tosco com pouco potencial para alterar a opinião pública no exterior.
Read 7 tweets

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