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Chris Hanretty Profile picture
@chrishanretty
Sep 12, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Strong, strong political reasons to support Osaka in this match #USOpen
Azarenka and Lukashenko have a "friendly" relationship nytimes.com/2020/09/09/spo…
But god-damn, she's started well 😖
Yaaasssssssss, what a turn around 🇯🇵🇯🇵🇯🇵🎉🎉🎉
Best women's final in some time - that first set by Azarenka was incredible, but Osaka is so so mature

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More from @chrishanretty

Chris Hanretty Profile picture
Jun 1, 2023
In response to UCU's Marking and Assessment Boycott (MAB), my employer @RoyalHolloway has decided to implement emergency regulations which in my view seriously call into question the rigour of degrees awarded (1/7)
The regulations include allowing marks for a module to be scaled proportionately (you did 50% of the coursework; that counts for 100%) (2/7)
(cont.) to permit an unlimited number of "allow" outcomes for modules (previously used where sickness or other extenuating circumstances affected students' performance) (3/7)
Read 7 tweets
Chris Hanretty Profile picture
Nov 20, 2022
Everyone knows the most fun way to watch the World Cup is to support the more democratic nation in each game. So here, thanks to @vdeminstitute data, is your group-by-group rundown! (1/n)
We start in Group A, where the Netherlands is clearly in pole position, and Qatar clearly in last place (2/n) Image
In Group B, England and Wales are in a dead heat (until and unless V-Dem produces estimates of sub-state democracy), with Iran placing last. (3/n) Image
Read 11 tweets
Chris Hanretty Profile picture
Jul 16, 2022
This use of MRP makes me incredibly anxious. There are considerable technical difficulties here. Begin nerdgasm... (1/15)
MRP works by modelling responses as a function of different demographic and political characteristics, and then making predictions for different voter types (2/15)
It works well when responses can be accurately predicted by these characteristics, or when you have a stupidly large sample size (3/15)
Read 15 tweets
Chris Hanretty Profile picture
Sep 24, 2020
Towns are sexy in UK polisci, aren't they? Let's talk a little bit about the super-sexy Towns Fund gov.uk/government/pub… (1/n)
As @estwebber and @georgegrylls reported this morning, the Perm. Sec at MHCLG gave evidence to the Public Accounts Committee this week thetimes.co.uk/article/robert… (2/n)
Jeremy Pocklington said that ministers had ignored civil service advice concerning the £3.9bn Towns Fund, and had instead applied [ahem!] "their own qualitative assessment" (3/n)
Read 20 tweets
Chris Hanretty Profile picture
Sep 11, 2020
I have some reservations about the claim that Covid-19 divisions now run deeper than Brexit (1/n)
The basis for the claim is that the proportion of mask-wearers who hate, resent or think badly of non-mask wearers (58%) is greater than the proportion of Remainers who think badly of Leavers (33%) (p. 11 of report) (2/n)
First problem with this: in order for something to be divisive, it's got to divide society, and the more evenly it divides society, the more divisive it is. But the (short) report doesn't show what % of the population wear a mask. (3/n)
Read 6 tweets
Chris Hanretty Profile picture
Sep 9, 2020
Tonight I'll be presenting my #APSA2020 paper, "The voting power of demographic groups". You can find the paper at drive.google.com/file/d/1G-SHiy… and a video presentation at (1/n)
The idea behind the paper is simple: the power of a voter group is the number of seats where the result would have been different had that voter group not voted—or alternately, the number of seats in which that voter group was pivotal (2/n)
The implementation is also simple, in a sense, and relies on multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) plus some post-hoc adjustments (3/n)
Read 10 tweets

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