Thread by @FiGuide

Observations on #FootballIndex order books so far, a thread:

1) It’s clear right now that prices *seem* volatile (in comparison to a pre sell order world) This is only due to the lack of ‘weight’ behind offers, if you compare it to the entirety of the FI market.

2. Someone can come in and undercut a £10 player with a 5% spread, to £9.70 with 300 futures as an offer. This then shows as a player ‘decreasing’ by 30p, when in reality - all it’s showing you is the lowest offer.

3. Would I like there to be 1000 or more shares behind each ‘offer’, probably. Would I like depth of market to be seen, absolutely.

Both of these would likely stop traders being scared about the price they see on screen, whichever way you look at it.

3a) More ‘weight’ behind each offer would show a more well rounded price, reflecting what more of the market is offering that player at.

It would be more reflective of the true demand for players at certain prices.

3b) Depth would allow people to see that just because trade X is offering player Y at £_, there are loads of traders offering him at above that price. On the other hand, there may not actually be that much depth as this is still such a small market in the grand scheme of things.

4. How can you take advantage of this as an FI trader?

4a) it’s harder to miss ‘the boat’ on players. Lots of traders would have bitten your hand off for TAA under £10…so, what are you waiting for, bite their hands off?!

*Not a TAA pump, just a popular, volatile hold ATM*

4b) This is currently a game of chicken being dictated by the ‘offerers’ due to lack of weight behind each price. Take advantage of it by buying players or just ignoring it. Selling at a price you don’t want to is not what sell orders are designed to help you do.

4c) Embrace or ignore volatile prices. If you can trade them to make money, trade them. If you don’t want to or don’t enjoy it, ignore them, build a portfolio of holds who you believe will yield good divs and be higher in price 6-9 months from now

4d) Traders are currently looking for instant rewards due to 5x IPDs and the novelty of new divs. If you have a strategy and plan, don’t let the fomo of the reallocation of capital into short termism derail that plan. If your plan is short termist, revel in the current volatility

Few more notes:

1) This isn’t THAT volatile compared to traditional exchanges, crypto and stock markets.

2) as @FiSamf has stated - FI was volatile before full OBs - but only on the bid side of OBs.

3) When we only had MB, we saw ‘real’ 70% drops in an hour on £7 players.

Lastly, dividends are so large, that a lot of fucking players on the index will likely be a lot higher than they are now, in 3 months, 6 months and 12 months time.

Love and rockets 🚀