Thread by @Milhouse_Van_Ho

SEPT. 13 - Canada/Ontario/Québec daily update

#COVID19Ontario #covid19canada #covid19quebec

7 deaths reported in all of Canada (population: 37,971,020).

22,922 additional tests to confirm 515 additional cases (2.2%).

1.8 active cases per 10,000 people in Canada.

Canada - Covid-19 still presents a risk primarily to the elderly, not to children and hardly to working-age adults.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)

Deaths among those over 80 account for 71.3% of covid deaths.

This contrasts to overall deaths, for which the 80+ cohort accounts for 50.9% of deaths (based on 2016-2018 averages).

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)

Bear in mind that the risk of death will always rise in line with one's advancing age. Such is life.

In a given year, like 2018 as an example, 9.2% of those in the over-80 age cohort pass away.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)

Children and young adults are at lower risk from Covid-19 than from influenza and pneumonia.

The risk of death by Covid-19 is higher than that by influenza and pneumonia as one's age advances.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)

If considered as a wholly distinct and separate cause of death in Canada, Covid-19 may be the 6th leading cause of death in 2020, much like influenza and pneumonia.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)

Ontario has reported 3 covid deaths so far in September.

- That's an average of 0.25 deaths / day.

Ontario now reports:

- 1.2 active cases per 10,000 people

- 43 in hospital (-6)

- 12 in ICU (-6)

- 8 in ICU on a ventilator (-1)

Ontario now reports:

- 1.2 active cases per 10,000 people

- 43 in hospital (-6)

- 12 in ICU (-6)

- 8 in ICU on a ventilator (-1)

Ontario - The proportion of cases resulting in death (yellow line) is now close to zero, vs. ~15% at peak.

This is what 2020 might look like in Ontario month-to-month if:
1. All-cause deaths (excl. Covid-19) are in line with 2016-18 averages
2. All Covid-19 deaths are single-cause excess deaths

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)

This is what 2020 might look like in Ontario year-to-year if:
1. All-cause deaths (excl. Covid-19) are in line with 2014-18 averages
2. All Covid-19 deaths are single-cause excess deaths

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)

This is what 2020 YTD might look like in Ontario on a cumulative basis, using 2016-18 average monthly deaths as a proxy for 2020 data.

Ontario - Growth in cumulative cases is outpacing growth in cumulative deaths.

September so far:

- 664 cases per 1 death (0.15%)

- Cumulative cases up 4.7%

- Cumulative deaths up 0.1%

Ontario - Growth in cumulative tests conducted is outpacing growth in cumulative cases.

September so far:

- 158 tests conducted per 1 positive test (0.6%)

- Cumulative tests up 11.0%

- Cumulative cases up 4.7%

Québec has reported 11 covid deaths so far in September (to Sept 11th).

- That's an average of 1/day.

Québec now reports:

- 2.2 active cases per 10,000 people

- 125 in hospital (+2)

- 16 in ICU (+4)

Québec now reports:

- 2.2 active cases per 10,000 people

- 125 in hospital (+2)

- 16 in ICU (+4)

Québec - The proportion of cases resulting in death (yellow line) is now close to zero, vs. ~15% at peak.