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The Passenger Profile picture
@gordonschuecker
Sep 13, 2020 • 9 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
@rustneversleepz @ProfSteveKeen @RichardTol Well, economists should be system thinkers & have a deep understanding of all aspects of the natural world (i.e. not limited to the narrow scope of human-created markets). But somehow, mainstream economists are our most blind members of society!

1/9
@rustneversleepz @ProfSteveKeen @RichardTol 2/9 Just a few things mainstream economics gets wrong:

mostly conflating the role of technology with the role of energy:

@rustneversleepz @ProfSteveKeen @RichardTol 3/9 Assuming that low resource prices mean low dependence on said resources:

@rustneversleepz @ProfSteveKeen @RichardTol 4/9 Seeing any negative effect outside of market relations as "externalities" when our biggest issues are 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘭 to the way our economies work.

@rustneversleepz @ProfSteveKeen @RichardTol 5/9 Completely ignoring the financial system and supposing that any resource scarcity can always be overcome by substitution.

@rustneversleepz @ProfSteveKeen @RichardTol 6/9 Assuming that GDP growth is both the most important and most desirable aspect of any economic system.
@rustneversleepz @ProfSteveKeen @RichardTol 7/9 𝘌𝘢𝘤𝘩 𝘰𝘯𝘦 of these "assumptions" are so fundamentally flawed that 𝘦𝘢𝘤𝘩 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘰𝘸𝘯 can bring down civilization and in general all life on Earth. Now don't hold your breath when you combine all of them. And there are many more.
@rustneversleepz @ProfSteveKeen @RichardTol 8/9 And one wonders why we are "right on track"...
@rustneversleepz @ProfSteveKeen @RichardTol 9/9 So sorry, I have an econ major too and don’t think I should take back this assertion:

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More from @gordonschuecker

The Passenger Profile picture
Sep 2, 2023
Paper Notes [Remastered] | The Appallingly Bad Neoclassical Economics of Climate Change

by @ProfSteveKeen

Why are economists so less concerned about climate change than natural scientists? Because they assumed so to begin with?

#ClimateDamage



1/11 researchgate.net/publication/34…
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2/11 A one-time experiment at a planetary scale vs debating about the economics. Especially when considering the following.

"Given the magnitude of the stakes, it is perhaps surprising that much of the debate about the climate has been cast in terms of economics..."
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3/11

Method #1 - Insulate 90% of the economy for climate change damages because "weather".

"Nordhaus excludes 87% of US industry from consideration, on the basis that it takes place ‘in carefully controlled environments that will not be directly affected by climate change." Image
Read 11 tweets
The Passenger Profile picture
Nov 1, 2022
Thread | Climate Tipping Points (TPs)
by Tim Lenton

Fantastic lecture on TPs and early warning indicators - the flicker before the "take off".

My new favorite chart (#2) that shows TP risk assessment increasing with understanding.

1/8




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2/8 Simple tipping point example:


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3/8 The usual tipping point overview. C.f. also the thread below:


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Read 9 tweets
The Passenger Profile picture
Aug 25, 2022
War and Industrial Policy

Another must-read

"Wars cannot be fought with supply chains that crisscross a globalized world."

"Things make no sense to continue like they used to, be either from a real (trade/production) perspective or a financial (FX reserves) perspective."

1/25
2/25 Chimerica & Eurussia symbiotic relationship is becoming (China + Russia) vs the West.
3/25 "The special relationship between China and Russia (”Chussia”) is a powerful one: a marriage of commodities and industry, uniting the largest commodity producer (Russia) and the factory of the world (China), potentially in control of Eurasia..."
Read 25 tweets
The Passenger Profile picture
Aug 5, 2022
Rabo Friday, another great read!

"Meanwhile, government ministries are busily pushing out silly policies. Picking an example would be like shooting fish in a barrel, but closing down nuclear power plants in an energy crisis is very high on the list."

1/6
2/6 "90% of people in most professions don’t know what they are doing. Worse, 90% of those who don’t know what they are doing don’t know that they don’t know what they are doing."
3/6 No recession ahead for the U.S.?

"The White House and Paul Krugman dispute what recession actually means, taking us into more surreal comedy."
Read 6 tweets
The Passenger Profile picture
Jun 12, 2022
Thread | The Economics of Oil Pricing

Demand curves are always a bit debatable, this thread will focus more on the production side, which for geological reasons is a lot less subjective.

This is how the production cost curve looks in practice:

1/11
2/11 Cheapest oil to produce is in the Middle East, most expensive in North America. With oil here = world liquid fuels, which have a nice round number for their production of ~100 million barrels per day (mmb/d). (Forget oil grades for now.)
3/11 The area under the curve represents the cumulative costs for the oil industry, the green area (price*volume - costs) represents its profits. Of course, the split between cost and profit is a bit blurry depending on accounting.
Read 11 tweets
The Passenger Profile picture
Jun 11, 2022
Rabo Friday (long one)

"To not see the underlying links between geopolitics, national politics, supply chains, inflation, and where rates ultimately end up is to say ‘fiddle Didi’ in Shangri-LaLaLand. As many were happily still doing on 23 February."

1/6
2/6 Isreal vs Iran war next? #WW3

Reminder, only 20% of world production at risk just through the Straight of Hormuz.

eia.gov/international/…
3/6 Tsar Putin the great.

"Russia’s President Putin has shifted from talk from Nazis and NATO to boast that he is following the Peter the Great in ‘taking back our lands’, and the Russian Duma has proposed legislation to remove recognition of Lithuania’s exit from the USSR."
Read 6 tweets

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