Things not looking good in the UK (massive understatement). We all need to act like we could have COVID-19 & minimise close physical contact with those outside our household. Need to avoid awful decisions about COVID v non COVID harm.
And if hospitals start filling up with patients arriving needing emergency care, going to put other NHS services at risk. Everyone loses if numbers continue to increase.
I won’t say much more bc I’m sure everyone is sick of my repeating of the same message for months now. But I truly hope we will not pay for all the summer holidays abroad with winter lockdowns. nytimes.com/2020/08/14/opi…
There was a window of opportunity this summer to go for zero Covid & avoid the current situation. Get back to more normality but with virus largely gone. Instead people were encouraged to go abroad on holidays. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Prof Baker’s NEJM NZ paper: cases first imported -> community transmission takes off (imported cases negligible) -> lockdown measures crunch local transmission. Then new cases largely imported- if these aren’t caught, they set off community transmission again. Back to square 1. Image

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More from @devisridhar

9 Sep
Questions I get from young people:
1. Am I immune from this virus? -> No, you are likely to have mild symptoms, but this is a nasty virus & you could face a long recovery. You don't want to get COVID- you could have an underlying health issues you don't know about. (1/n)
2. Should I just get infected & get an 'immunity passport'? -> We still don't know how long immunity lasts, & there have been some instances of documented re-infection. We don't yet know if 2nd time will be asymptomatic re-infection or more severe & how rare/common it is. (2/n).
3. If only young people are getting COVID, then what's the problem? -> No country has been able to fully shield the elderly/vulnerable as they live with us & among us. Vulnerable young = hypertension, diabetes, asthma, overweight, cancer survivors, immuno-compromised. (3/n)
Read 5 tweets
11 Aug
On a panel & was asked if COVID-19 will help world prepare for the 'real' big one. I actually think SARS-CoV-2 is the big 'Disease X' experts warned about. We shouldn't underestimate the current crisis which has no simple solution.
If it were as lethal as MERS (33% CFR) then all gov'ts would aim to eliminate. If it had similar health outcomes to flu then gov'ts let it go. It falls in-between leading to muddled strategies, conflicted scientific advice & in the process, economy/health both taking a hit.
The challenge is to re-open economy/society while controlling COVID-19. Robust test/trace/isolate supported by face coverings, hygiene & border checks can help. But 'super-spreading' events still a big challenge. E.g. 91 people testing positive from night at club in Barcelona.
Read 4 tweets
1 Aug
Would love to have a word with the guy who wrote this Guardian piece. theguardian.com/world/commenti… Image
Always makes me laugh 😂
That's from Herald Scotland: heraldscotland.com/news/18621934.…
Read 4 tweets
29 Jul
To re-open safely, universities have to:
1. Test all students on arrival & 5 days later
2. Mandatory use of face coverings
3. Ventilation of classrooms
4. Ensure monitoring of students during quarantine with app & check-ins (to ensure compliance)
5. Clear outbreak response plan.
Drafting that up into a background note & happy to share with any faculty involved in re-opening. Just email pressoffice@ed.ac.uk.
Read 4 tweets
22 Jul
Latest alleged comments by Pompeo (US Sec of State) in the UK are blame-shifting- Trump administration rattled by upcoming 2020 Elections with its appalling COVID-19 response resulting in a high number of cases, deaths & unemployment. Are these attacks on WHO fair? (thread)
WHO was established in 1948 as the chief director and coordinator of international health work in the United Nations. It has 3 functions with outbreaks.
First, its International Health Regulations require countries to report outbreaks (China did on 30th Dec), share this info with the world (5th Jan) & it can raise the highest level of alarm-PHEIC (30th Jan). At that point up to countries to prepare (or not to prepare)
Read 6 tweets
8 Jul
I look at what’s happening in several U.S. states including my home state Florida; I look at Israel and Spain and Iran and...and I know that everyone wants the economy to go full steam ahead in the UK. But I fear we will be in another lockdown within months, if not weeks.
Why would the UK be any different? This is what I asked myself also on Feb & March when the UK stayed fully open while others moved in opposite direction. Eliminate the virus over the summer then open up safely. Otherwise enter winter & flu season in a dangerous halfway house.
I know the economy is suffering & jobs are being lost. I recognise the toll that lockdown has taken and I’m not ‘pro-lockdown’ at all. In fact my worry is about a second lockdown & how to avoid this happening. Lockdown/release cycles will destroy society & the economy.
Read 6 tweets

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