SBF Profile picture
13 Sep, 14 tweets, 4 min read
1) Is yield farming sustainable? Is it stupid? Is it revolutionary?
2) This is *not* trying to answer the question of whether food tokens will go up or down short-term. It's trying focus on the long-term ramifications of it.

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. I OWN SOME FOOD TOKENS.
3) What is the core financial transaction behind yield farming?

Well, basically: new projects drop most or all of their tokens on DeFi users in return for valuation and TVL.

Are those justified?
4) A lot for this will come down to what you think DeFi should be worth.

For now, I'm going to make the following arbitrary assumption: that ftx.com/trade/DEFI-PERP is "fair". DEFI-PERP is currently basically made up of the largest DeFi projects pre-yield-farming.
5) So, the projects in DEFI-PERP are worth about $200m-$2b right now.

I think that optimistically, vegetables all together are worth about as much as the rest of DeFi -- so maybe like $6b or so.
6) That means that giving away all the yield farming coins can generate at most that amount of valuation, and that amount of transaction costs.

So how much is it in fact generating?
7) Well a few of the valuations make no sense, and I don't really know who's buying them.

If you remove those, things actually aren't that crazy. YFI is at $1b, some of COMP/BAL/SNX/LEND comes from this, and then a collection of tokens around a few hundred million.
8) OK, and how about the transaction costs?

Well people are spending about $100m per month on gas.

In addition people are locking up about $10b of capital; if you use 20%/year as the baseline Crypto cost, that's another $1b or so of expenses.
9) So put it all together and you get....

....well, you know, $6b or so.

I'm gonna be honest, I wasn't expecting that, at all.
10) Now I ignored some coins from the calculation, intentionally; and I ignored the opportunity cost of peoples' time.

But, like, ok, so I'm still surprised. I thought food tokens were obviously a bubble.

Now I'm not so sure.
11) This is also obviously ignoring the difference between different coins. Some have obvious utility!

@compoundfinance , @AaveAave , @BalancerLabs, etc. are important products people use even ignoring farming; @CreamdotFinance , @SushiSwap, etc. are forks on useful products.
12) @iearnfinance is a weird case -- right now it's mostly just about farming, but it's also the king of farming, the meta-farming coin, and so it kinda makes sense that it should get a decent piece of that pie.
13) So, TL;DR: obviously food tokens are a ridiculous bubble, it was clear to me from the beginning.

But also maybe it's not and maybe I was wrong about that?
14) Obviously some will still crash, and some will founder, and some will fuck up magnificently, but if even a few get to where they're trying to go, that could make up for the rest.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with SBF

SBF Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @SBF_Alameda

17 Sep
1) Last night control of Sushiswap was passed off to multisig control. So this is my last message as temporary-substitute-chef and my first as.... a waiter? IDK.

2) NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
3) First, off, I'd like to echo others in congratulating Uniswap. This was by all definitions a well done, successful launch; all the more so given the pressure.
Read 15 tweets
16 Sep
1) Man this $SAFE thing seems like such a a messy situation.

I don't have any context on in really, but it seems like:
2)

a) looks like neither really understood IL that well.
b) informal contracts are super powerful and get shit done, but also really messy and have big downside if there isn't enough trust and history
c) Balancer pools can be confusing to add initial liquidity to
3)

d) a ton of moralizing around things like 'selling' vs 'dumping' to try to claim the high ground
e) it's unclear what it means to 'run' a DeFi protocol if the team doesn't own any
f) don't cofound something with people you don't already trust!
Read 6 tweets
15 Sep
1) Building and Fighting
2) [If you don’t care for sushi, that’s totally chill. I’m not promising its future. This isn’t investment advice.]
3) Crypto is defined by building.

Building projects, helping things, and moving forward.

Sometimes things break, and then you fix them.
Read 32 tweets
11 Sep
1)

On Valuing Tokens
2) NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
3) My background is in arbitrage, and short timescale quant trading.

Tokens, stocks, currencies -- they're just tickers and prices; you buy at the lower price and sell at the higher price.

But over time I've started to hodl.
Read 19 tweets
9 Sep
1) well the migration is done; sushiswap is live

sushiswapclassic.org
2) someday someone might write a novel about this

someday we might learn who nomi really was

someday we'll find out what happens between uniswap and sushiswap
3) but today it's live, and the world can start to decide

and today we begin the transition to multisig control
Read 5 tweets
9 Sep
1) Alright @stoolpresidente. Head of Crypto reporting. You wanna know how to think about crypto?

2)

You bought $LINK. You made a good choice, almost! LINK Marines are your people.

The problem is that LINK was already up, a lot: about 600% when you started.

The Marines were strong! But they'd already done their heavy lifting when you came. They were exhausted.
3)

But there are lots of other coins out there you'd love.

The last month crypto has been talking about food tokens: YAM, SUSHI, KMICHI, HOTDOG.

They're tokens named after foods, and you can also click a button to have them sit there, multiplying.

Welcome to Yield Farming
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!