GOOD NEWS: The US is finally on the cusp of the test positivity rate declining below 5%, a key WHO guidepost.
Some thoughts.
This may happen as we cross the grim 200,000 official death milestone. An incredibly expensive price to reach this milestone. 2/
The impact on mental illness & addiction has been hard as well. All of these are part of the cost of the pandemic & our poor response. 3/
Data as we know lags our behavior. So our recent improvement Is the result of actions taken in August— which itself was a response to how bad July was.
We will have as many of these bumps as it takes us to learn the lessons we don’t repeat. 4/
Labor Day travel, university and college life and big super-spreader events present our biggest risks. We will get our report card at the end of September and October on how we did. 5/
One reason the aggregate numbers will get smaller is we are moving from cases in big cities alone to bedroom communities to rural areas. In states from MN to GA, rural counties represent a lot of the growth. 6/
The number of new cases we have every day is nothing to brag about, but hopefully it can be pushed lower.
Without more aggressive approaches, we won’t be likely to crush it. 7/
Still, there is no reason not to celebrate the good news. Even it’s a temporary reprieve, it can be measured in many lives saved.
It’s also important to have gratitude for the people who have sacrificed for others so we could see this improvement. 8/
There will be future rises but we have the ability to make them smaller and contain them faster.
We obviously also have the ability to skip. This is hard & takes patience. But if that happens we know what to do. /end
One more comment: people have asked about whether there is something different about the numbers.
Yes. Here are some...
With fewer people in the hospital, the test positive rate drops. With more college kids on campus, the same.
But other indicators tell me that this is at least good news (as of our August activity). Won’t know September impact for a while.
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“Ron DeSantis is taking the politics of being a bully to a different level,” Sykes tells me. “He’s decided he's going to move as hard and demagogically to the right as he can. He’s learned something from Donald Trump: you don’t need to be a nice guy.” 2/
Sykes says DeSantis is exploiting the culture wars in order to tap into Republicans’ grievances, and that the GOP sees the Florida governor as a “younger, smarter” but equally combative replacement for Trump. But DeSantis stands out from other conservatives for a reason. 3/
Some thoughts on using Twitter:
With Musk inviting back people who use the platform to threaten rape, to lie at scale & become whatever else his whims decide, here are some actions worth considering …
-Mute all advertisers in your feed. I’m not going to be a revenue source & don’t want those who advertise here to be encouraged.
-If you have a lot of followers or post a lot, consider moving the bulk of your content elsewhere. Post looks promising. (I’m @ASlavitt there.)
-I’m also on Mastadon to check it out & until Post is done with its waitlist & will eventually pick one.
-I continue to occasionally check the news feed here & promote things on Twitter minimally & will cross-post for a short time as people decide what they want to do.
COVID Update: It’s time for one as we look ahead to the winter.
The real question is whether we will have another 2021 with a lot of disruption— on a more modest wave— or nothing at all.
There is early data to help answer this question. 1/
Currently there are lots of Omicron sub-variants co-circulating around the globe.
Household names like:
BA.4.6
BQ1.1
XBB
While it’s all a little hard to follow, there’s something interesting about the nature of these variants. 2/
Variants: 1- These are all variants of Omicron. This is good. Better than dealing with a Delta variant emerging. Makes progression more closely resemble the flu. 2- Each are growing in different parts of the world without 1 being dominant. We could have a mix this winter.3/
NEW: COVID vaccines will now be recommended annually, with the flu shot.
I spoke to the White House yesterday about the plan. 1/
Rather than an ad hoc schedule which confuses many as to when to get vaccinated, the thinking is that an annual shot will result in many more people getting vaccinated.
They point to 2/3 of adults who take the flu vaccine vs 1/3 of adults over 50 who have been taking COVID. 2/
We have infrastructure, outreach, and habits that can be capitalized to get people their flu and COVID vaccines together.
This is the prime benefit.
But of course it comes with some questions they are preparing to address. 3/