Thread by @madrid_mike

A quick note on Latino voters: Latinos are a notoriously late deciding vote. We are also challenging to poll because sample sizes often aren’t big enough to accurately reflect voter sentiment in baseline polls. The FL polling is instructive but needs to be considered cautiously

Any poll looking at Hispanic voters in Florida with a sample size <200 in a state as diverse as Florida can’t accurately gauge sentiment. Hispanics are 18% of the statewide vote, Cubans are about 1/3rd, Puerto Rican’s about 1/3rd and the remaining is other South & Central Am’s.

That means, if properly weighted, the sample sizes of Cubans & Puerto Rican’s in the poll had sample sizes of 60 people or so - not a good look at all. Having said that I & others who specialize here, have been very vocal about warning signs with the Latino vote all year

There are very few pollsters who I have any degree of confidence in when gauging Hispanic political opinion. Many are run by partisans & academics more interested in leveraging contracts than being competent political advisors. This is a very big on-going problem for DEMs

PEW remains the gold standard but doesn’t chase political campaign dynamics.

Regardless while I am and have been concerned about the Latino vote for Biden (I raised the same alarms about Clinton in ‘16 - she had the exact same problem just smaller) there is time to correct it with a change in tactics. This can be fixed but time is getting short.

There needs to be both a massive investment in a GOTV program with Puerto Ricans & non-Cuban Hispanics coupled with an aggressive campaign challenging Trump in Miami-Dade to mitigate the Cuban vote expansion. Ceding ground on socialism when Trump is already a dictator is crazy.

Bottom line: This is fixable. It needs to be addressed seriously now and resources sufficiently. This is a MAJOR problem in the Democratic Party. It’s one I’ve watched and competed against successfully on the GOP side for years. Latinos will pass blacks as 2nd largest votinggroup

Stop ignoring and delaying attention to Latino voters. Those days are gone if you want to be a competitive party nationally.