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Mike Madrid Profile picture
Mike Madrid
@madrid_mike
“The Latino Century” author Latino GOP political consultant; Co-Founder The Lincoln Project ; Data & numbers for breakfast @TheLatino_vote podcast 🐿
11 subscribers
Nov 17 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
A little history you likely haven’t heard about ‘Mass Deportations’ as we near a historic change in immigration policy.

Thousands of US citizens were rounded up the last time the US did this - maybe over a million, many children open.substack.com/pub/greattrans…Image The first mass deportation of Mexicans & US citizens of Mexican descent occurred during the Great Depression when farm jobs were prioritized for white Okies, dustbowlers & ‘real Americans’ over Latino citizens.

The government also wanted New Deal dollars going to whites first.
Nov 3 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The Selzer poll was a big bolt of lightning and thunder in a race defined by very little movement in polling numbers.

This is great news for Harris -no other way to spin it. Great for the narrative, momentum & even if the numbers aren’t perfectly accurate they show big movement Why does that matter in swing states? Well Almost all of the movement in this poll towards Harris came from Republicans and Independent women.

In fact the poll shows Trump losing 11% of GOP voters in one of the whitest most conservative states in the country.
Oct 28 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
The racial slurs at Trumps rally in Madison Square Garden could cost him the election. Why?

First, even if it just moves Pennsylvania marginally its game over and it’s likely to move Latino’s and Republicans there.

Puerto Ricans are the largest Latino plurality in PA and Harris is doing best in PA with Latinos of all the swing states.

PA had huge Latino rightward shifts in 2020 & 2022 meaning there was a lot of Democratic crossovers to Republicans. That existing registration history suggests they can also be brought back.
Oct 8 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
There are three issues proven to move Republican voters past ‘The Bannon Line’ from 2020.

January 6
The Big Lie
Dobbs

Focus on these three issues and you win the race. Harris can pass the Bannon line and get a record number of Republican votes. You do not need a permission structure to defend your body or your country.

I’m deeply honored & grateful for those Republicans who have the courage to step forward against Trump. Everything helps at this moment.

But let’s be clear - we’re way past a ‘permission structure’
Sep 29 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
So what’s going on with the Latino vote?

Another credible poll comes out showing Trump gaining ground.

It’s not a methodology problem. No it’s not a sample size problem.

It’s really. So what gives? Here’s the latest poll that came out today.

No doubt there’s gonna be some panic and the talking heads are gonna start telling us the polls bad for whatever reasons they can conjur up. nbcnews.com/politics/2024-…
Aug 14 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
The biggest tell is the first paragraph “The very early polling on a Harris-Trump election suggests a reset in the fight over Latino voters. The Hispanic electorate now looks more in line with the other Trump-era elections of 2020 and 2022 than with a wide partisan realignment.” The 2020 and 2022 campaigns were the ‘partisan realignment’…(not really sure what that means actually)

This isn’t a reset as much as it’s a return to a historically low range of a Democratic nominees support level at this point in the race.
Aug 10 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
A PAC supporting Kamala Harris is up with a new ad focused on housing and homeownership - take a look and let’s discuss how this effects Latino voters shall we? More than any other policy specific on the economy homeownership explains Latino men drifting to the GOP - homeownership is central to both the Latino economy and is a critical first step into the middle class.

The Biden years have been tough on Latinos here
Aug 9 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Oh boy. This is big. The Kamala Harris campaign is on the air with a new ad and it’s a banger - take a look at it and then let’s discuss, shall we? I can’t explain how significant a shift this is for Democrats. It’s extraordinary and it is a complete reversal of basically everything they’ve been doing since 2012.

In fact, it’s basically a repudiation of that approach.

This is very good news.
Aug 8 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Kamala Harris just dropped an ad targeting Latino voters. Here it is - take a look and then let’s discuss, shall we? This is a biography ad seeking to introduce Harris to Latinos. Which Latinos? We’ve got some strong clues and that tells us a lot about how the campaign is looking at Latino voters

Good news is the ads are also in English (Thank God) so they’re making progress
Aug 2 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
In 2020 when The Lincoln Project led the effort to move Republican voters away from Trump and to Joe Biden we used the phrase “The Bannon Line” to explain that moving a marginal 4-5% of GOP voters would determine the winner.

We exceeded those numbers in every swing state. This year the numbers look different and in looking at the same swing states where The Lincoln Project made a difference there is the potential for greater gains.

The data from primary states is showing Trump fatigue setting as well as new messaging opportunities
Jul 28 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Yesterday’s snark aside, there is a valid argument for a Whitmer or Buttigieg pick (frankly there’s a legit argument for all of them imo). Picking one of these two would essentially be doubling down on a momentum play on the demo’s Harris needs to get past Trumps EC advantage An all female ticket arguably brings out more women to the polls without losing men that wouldn’t already never vote for a woman, for example.

If that’s what Garins argument is it’s a fair argument. I think it’s unnecessarily risky but there’s a good argument there.
Jul 25 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Lots of Latino data gonna start coming out so let’s talk about it. These early numbers are good for Harris but not great (certainly getting a Latino honeymoon bounce too) and they reflect a problem for Democrats if accurate. Why? Republicans getting 36% Latino support is at a historically high range. This is the same number Trump got - it’s not good and is consistent with the decade long trend of political assimilation.

But, and here’s where it’s gonna be important for close observers…
Jul 25 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Kamala Harris must articulate a border security plan. She should go to the Arizona border with Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego and announce it.

She can not withstand the coming attacks defensively, the only possible way to hold in is with a strong offense.

Why? First, the old assumptions that Latino voters won’t support that are demonstrably false. Biden proved that and the only opposition to this common sense move are shrinking voices in her own party that have been consistently wrong on this.
Jul 20 • 25 tweets • 5 min read
Of all the analysts looking at the race I find @RonBrownstein to be the most compelling. The history of racial/ethnic sub groups is, in my estimation, far better than looking at partisan crosstabs in the polling averages - especially in swing states Moreover, in a historically high negativitely partisan environment, looking at the race this way gave us a much better explanation of why 2020 turned out the way it did (meaning why Biden polled as high as he did for so long & why it ended up closer then most thought)
Jul 17 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
There’s a lot of really bad commentary and analysis out there right now but the most naive is the idea that an alternative candidate to Biden has more upside than downside.

That’s incredibly and dangerously naive. A candidate very rarely, if ever, improves upon their starting position when respondents can impart all the positives they want without any attacks - that’s campaigns 101.

The idea that there’s all upside was basically why Sara Palin was chosen.
Jul 13 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Our media is broken.

It highlights ‘experts’ who are not experts at all.

It platforms people who don’t understand voter behavior at all.

It’s designed to perpetuate itself to prevent collapse as viewer numbers drop. There are people who made claims the last 2 weeks about data and research and voters that should never be allowed on TV again.

The media and these ‘experts’ will move on like nothing happened. Like the damaging fire they set was no big deal or that they were ‘helping democracy’
Jul 11 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
While the Democrats are fighting over vibes and what their eyes saw instead of what the math and science say - Trumps campaign is publicly signaling how they’re approaching the race.

HINT: it’s not via 538 averages and def not focus groups Trumps team is looking at this race exactly as I laid out immediately after the 2022 midterms. I tweeted it here & will re-up it again to show everyone I was saying this is how they’d approach the race.

Their strategy is doubling down on the party’s changing coalitions
Jul 8 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
Joe Biden headed into the 2022 midterms with historically high numbers of voters saying the country and the economy were headed in the wrong direction.

His approval ratings were at, or near, historic lows for a President in the midterms.

Yet Dems did historically well. Why? Voters on both sides of the aisle believe their worldview is under threat and attack. The threat is existential.

The candidates and party’s who lead the fights to protect them are far less important than the world view they’re trying to preserve.
Jul 6 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
@RadioFreeTom Hey Tom! Thanks for asking. As a big follower of mine (😂) you’ll know that what I counsel on polling is to watch for movement NOT the horse race. The horse race isn’t telling us much and it’s causing all this panic.

So three things are happening: @RadioFreeTom First, Independent voters appear to be breaking towards Biden. Why?

Because they watched the whole debate with their own eyes - not just the part that’s causing the meltdown. They used their eyes to watch everything.

Shocking I know! Here’s the NYT analysis of their poll Image
Jul 6 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Look most of the disagreements going on here are because people are scared. That’s usually because they’re misinformed or know enough to read polling toplines and lose their minds.

This cycle the pundits are worse than the journalists Most of what I’m seeing is fights over polling aggregators and approval ratings. These are important but they are NOT determinitive in a race - especially not 4 months out in an extremely negatively polarized environment.

Biden’s got problems. So does Trump. BIG problems.
Jul 4 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
On this Fourth of July a reminder of what the fight for freedom looked like in the face of doubt

The fight against tyranny and against self doubt is literally in our DNA. It is our origin story.

At the darkest bleakest moment in the Revolutionary War, in our fight for freedom, George Washington decided to go on offense. To attack.

He decided to cross the Delaware.

George Washington attacked the Hessian military base in Trenton, New Jersey, on Christmas Day 1776. The victory inspired new hope for the Patriot Army. But, at the time, Washington's troops were in bad shape. Supplies were low, and the soldiers were losing hope that they would ever be able to defeat the British. 

“We can not win” was the growing declarations causing panic among the troops. Doubt, as much as anything became the enemy of the fighters for freedom.