Of all the analysts looking at the race I find @RonBrownstein to be the most compelling. The history of racial/ethnic sub groups is, in my estimation, far better than looking at partisan crosstabs in the polling averages - especially in swing states

https://twitter.com/ronbrownstein/status/1814049826923024539

Moreover, in a historically high negativitely partisan environment, looking at the race this way gave us a much better explanation of why 2020 turned out the way it did (meaning why Biden polled as high as he did for so long & why it ended up closer then most thought)

There’s a lot of really bad commentary and analysis out there right now but the most naive is the idea that an alternative candidate to Biden has more upside than downside.

That’s incredibly and dangerously naive. A candidate very rarely, if ever, improves upon their starting position when respondents can impart all the positives they want without any attacks - that’s campaigns 101.

The idea that there’s all upside was basically why Sara Palin was chosen.

Our media is broken.

It highlights ‘experts’ who are not experts at all.

It platforms people who don’t understand voter behavior at all.

It’s designed to perpetuate itself to prevent collapse as viewer numbers drop. There are people who made claims the last 2 weeks about data and research and voters that should never be allowed on TV again.

The media and these ‘experts’ will move on like nothing happened. Like the damaging fire they set was no big deal or that they were ‘helping democracy’

While the Democrats are fighting over vibes and what their eyes saw instead of what the math and science say - Trumps campaign is publicly signaling how they’re approaching the race.

HINT: it’s not via 538 averages and def not focus groups

https://twitter.com/madrid_mike/status/1811191387616166092

Trumps team is looking at this race exactly as I laid out immediately after the 2022 midterms. I tweeted it here & will re-up it again to show everyone I was saying this is how they’d approach the race.

Their strategy is doubling down on the party’s changing coalitions

Joe Biden headed into the 2022 midterms with historically high numbers of voters saying the country and the economy were headed in the wrong direction.

His approval ratings were at, or near, historic lows for a President in the midterms.

Yet Dems did historically well. Why? Voters on both sides of the aisle believe their worldview is under threat and attack. The threat is existential.

The candidates and party’s who lead the fights to protect them are far less important than the world view they’re trying to preserve.

@RadioFreeTom Hey Tom! Thanks for asking. As a big follower of mine (😂) you’ll know that what I counsel on polling is to watch for movement NOT the horse race. The horse race isn’t telling us much and it’s causing all this panic.

So three things are happening: @RadioFreeTom First, Independent voters appear to be breaking towards Biden. Why?

Because they watched the whole debate with their own eyes - not just the part that’s causing the meltdown. They used their eyes to watch everything.

Shocking I know! Here’s the NYT analysis of their poll

Look most of the disagreements going on here are because people are scared. That’s usually because they’re misinformed or know enough to read polling toplines and lose their minds.

This cycle the pundits are worse than the journalists Most of what I’m seeing is fights over polling aggregators and approval ratings. These are important but they are NOT determinitive in a race - especially not 4 months out in an extremely negatively polarized environment.

Biden’s got problems. So does Trump. BIG problems.

On this Fourth of July a reminder of what the fight for freedom looked like in the face of doubt

The fight against tyranny and against self doubt is literally in our DNA. It is our origin story.

At the darkest bleakest moment in the Revolutionary War, in our fight for freedom, George Washington decided to go on offense. To attack.

He decided to cross the Delaware.

George Washington attacked the Hessian military base in Trenton, New Jersey, on Christmas Day 1776. The victory inspired new hope for the Patriot Army. But, at the time, Washington's troops were in bad shape. Supplies were low, and the soldiers were losing hope that they would ever be able to defeat the British. 

“We can not win” was the growing declarations causing panic among the troops. Doubt, as much as anything became the enemy of the fighters for freedom.

You may have seen this graph being shared by folks pushing for Biden to step aside AND by the Biden campaign itself to show why the President should stay in the race.

Who is right? Let me first say if Biden decided he doesn’t want to run, this data suggests this also wouldn’t be cause for alarm, panic and setting one’s hair on fire.

But this graph does show he is the strongest candidate among everyone else on this list (and beyond).

This is also a really important point. The most valuable use of polling data for campaigns at this point is directional and message testing.

As polling got less expensive (esp. on-line platforms) the media became more focused on them and naturally focused on the “horse race”…

https://twitter.com/melmis/status/1807624923617050961

Sure campaigns test the horse race too but they’re still looking for movement among groups that their voter models show they have a path to victory with.

The campaigns are using polling data for very different purposes than a poll used by the media.

Tim’s a really smart guy but he’s wrong here. The best data is actually election results to determine how strong each base is in an election that will look more like 2016 than 2020.

I think you’re making the mistake of looking at public polling and polling averages and well…

https://twitter.com/timodc/status/1807588163738550461

That’s not how this works.

Let me help a little bit. Bidens “polling problems” that everyone is using aren’t materializing with actual voters. He’s regularly getting 90% in 3-4 way races. That’s an extremely strong sign of a cohesive base - like historically strong.

I deleted my tweet to my friend @RadioFreeTom because I was affirming he was one of few Republicans boldly pushing for Biden in 2020.

He was right about that.

His concern about Bidens electability now is not one I share. There are both scientific and sophisticated tools that can be used to determine ‘electability’. It is not just ‘vibes’ or a gut feeling that professionals use to determine it.

Are we always right? No.

But there is an expertise to it.

Can we have a little chat about Cuban voters? Theres a lot of misunderstanding floating around out there so let me try to offer some perspective.

The Cuban share of the Latino vote is not that big. Cubans are actually the 4th largest Latino subgroup. Pretty small. Cubans have had a disproportionate influence in our politics since the Cold War because they’ve traditionally been stridently anti-communist making them a valuable part of the GOP coalition - esp. as it sought to consolidate whites under the southern strategy.

Latino political views on immigration are changing dramatically and it’s a function of demographic & immigration trends from nearly 20 years ago.

Latino Identity Declines Across Generations as Immigrant Ties Weaken | Pew Research Center pewresearch.org/race-and-ethni… Bidens executive actions today are not only in step with the vast majority of Americans - they are in step with where Latinos are increasingly moving.

There are a number of reasons why but the most important is that Latino voters in 2024 is dramatically different than the past

The primaries tomorrow will be the first clean data look at how Republican voters are reacting to Trumps felony conviction.

Most of the public polling shows that the conviction has further damaged Trump with GOP voters.

Here’s what to look for: The magic number for Trump is 10%. If Trump is losing more GOP vote than that on Election Day he’s very likely toast. It may not sound like much but that kind of hemorrhaging isn’t unprecedented but you gotta go back pretty deep to get to those numbers in Presidential history.

Nikki Haley has been attacking Biden since the primary and she’s ratcheting up the attacks.

Her vote share is rising in GOP primaries where she’s dropped out leading many in the media to characterize this phenomenon as a ‘Nikki Haley’ voter but here’s the thing Nikki Haley has never had a wide constituency in the GOP. She is a vessel for growing anti-Trump sentiment.

Half of her vote is saying they’ll vote Biden - the other half says it won’t vote at all in November.

That’s NOT a pro Nikki Haley voter folks….

Can we talk about Trump and Latino voters for a minute?

Lots of questions being asked about what it is Trump is doing to get more and more Latino votes. Is it him? Is it machismo? Is it disinformation on WhatsApp?

How can Democrats be losing base vote to THIS guy? 🧵 Most of what is happening with the rightward shift is happening despite GOP efforts not because of them.

Cubans & Venezuelans are an exception but their numbers are so small they’re not reflected in national polling.

The country is undergoing two major changes

Let me offer some advice when you’re talking to Republican friends, family & neighbors about not voting for Trump. This is how you can tell who is and isn’t voting for Trump.

A short thread 🧵 If someone says “I really don’t like the way he handles himself and his offensive tweets but I like his policies” that person is a Trump voter.

This person knows what they’re doing is wrong but they’re rationalizing the behavior they know is wrong.

It’s hard to underscore how significant the creation of a ‘Border Security Group’ by Democrats is.

It’s potentially transformative for Democrats who have been losing Hispanic voters since 2012. Read this article carefully. It correctly describes the party’s decision to emphasize immigration as a driving issue to Latino voters.

This is perhaps the most tragically flawed strategic decision I’ve witnessed by either major political party in decades. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…

Guys I’m not looking to deep at the numbers cause I don’t think we need to. Besudes im at the airport eating beef jerky and gummy worms for dinner cause I think I’m still 20 something doing campaigns.

But here’s what I’m looking at: Most of Haley’s vote is anti-Trump not pro-Haley. This continues to be the key data point I’m focused on.

Biden keeps putting up ridiculous numbers and anti-Biden messaging is falling worse than flat. If there was anti-Biden sentiment Dean Phillips would be getting oxygen

Female and young voters are clearly energized this year (and that’s great) BUT that doesn’t explain the wide discrepancies in polling and results (on both sides btw).

This doesn’t appear to be a methodology or weighting problem. You can’t get to these numbers because ‘women are fired up’ or ‘Gen Z is gonna save democracy’

If 100% of female & youth voters went for Biden (and damn they may have) that means men did too. So deep breaths folks.

I’m of the belief it’s a problem with the instrument itself.