Can we talk about Trump and Latino voters for a minute?

Lots of questions being asked about what it is Trump is doing to get more and more Latino votes. Is it him? Is it machismo? Is it disinformation on WhatsApp?

How can Democrats be losing base vote to THIS guy? 🧵 Most of what is happening with the rightward shift is happening despite GOP efforts not because of them.

Cubans & Venezuelans are an exception but their numbers are so small they’re not reflected in national polling.

The country is undergoing two major changes

Let me offer some advice when you’re talking to Republican friends, family & neighbors about not voting for Trump. This is how you can tell who is and isn’t voting for Trump.

A short thread 🧵 If someone says “I really don’t like the way he handles himself and his offensive tweets but I like his policies” that person is a Trump voter.

This person knows what they’re doing is wrong but they’re rationalizing the behavior they know is wrong.

It’s hard to underscore how significant the creation of a ‘Border Security Group’ by Democrats is.

It’s potentially transformative for Democrats who have been losing Hispanic voters since 2012. Read this article carefully. It correctly describes the party’s decision to emphasize immigration as a driving issue to Latino voters.

This is perhaps the most tragically flawed strategic decision I’ve witnessed by either major political party in decades. nbcnews.com/politics/congr…

Guys I’m not looking to deep at the numbers cause I don’t think we need to. Besudes im at the airport eating beef jerky and gummy worms for dinner cause I think I’m still 20 something doing campaigns.

But here’s what I’m looking at: Most of Haley’s vote is anti-Trump not pro-Haley. This continues to be the key data point I’m focused on.

Biden keeps putting up ridiculous numbers and anti-Biden messaging is falling worse than flat. If there was anti-Biden sentiment Dean Phillips would be getting oxygen

Female and young voters are clearly energized this year (and that’s great) BUT that doesn’t explain the wide discrepancies in polling and results (on both sides btw).

This doesn’t appear to be a methodology or weighting problem. You can’t get to these numbers because ‘women are fired up’ or ‘Gen Z is gonna save democracy’

If 100% of female & youth voters went for Biden (and damn they may have) that means men did too. So deep breaths folks.

I’m of the belief it’s a problem with the instrument itself.

Our world is at war.

It has been since 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea.

This war will be more defined by disinformation, psyops, currency manipulation and destabilization efforts than in the last World War.

Russia, Iran, China & North Korea are coordinating The attacks on the US and our allies.

There are four fronts: Ukraine (led by Russia), the Middle East (led by Iran), Taiwan (led by China) and the United States (where internal destruction & division is fueled internally by factions in the GOP)

Let’s talk a little bit more about why anti-Trump GOP’ers in Iowa and NH matter:

1st is Iowa a state that is dominated by white evangelicals in the GOP primary, Trumps strongest base giving him 81% of their votes in 2020 2nd is New Hampshire a state that has a higher than the national average of white non-college educated voters.

These two demographics give us the first real test of how Republicans are making voting decisions in 2024.

Yes the Iowa caucuses are an irrelevant relic of the past but here’s my hot takes anyway:

1. Like some of us have been saying for years, it’s Trumps party. Spending time, effort and energy on any strategy not attacking him is pointless, 2. Iowa consolidating behind Trump so overwhelmingly is a sign of his weakness NOT strength. His white, rural evangelical base LOVES him but they and their ideology turns off virtually every other demographic. Trumps radicalized base will be a net negative in November

I’ve been consistently stating that Joe Biden is in a strong position to win re-election. The fundamentals have looked very good.

Now it’s time for some straight talk.

Biden, and Democrats have a continuing Latino problem that could cost them the election. Latino voters will show up in numbers greater than the margin of victory in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin & North Carolina.

Latino voters here haven’t gotten the investment over the past few years to give DEMs assurance they’ll get the Latino numbers they need.

The good news is there’s finally more attention focused on Latino voters & Latino polling, the bad news (for some) is there’s gonna be more attention paid the methodologies that have distorted Hispanic voter option for some time. 🧵 Todays Univision poll is a good case in point. As is the case with every poll at this time in the cycle - take it with a grain of salt. I’m sure there’s some great stuff as well as some wonky stuff in there.

I’m not paying much attention to it. Why?

The President and the Vice-President can not be the inhabitants of the same state. Florida, for example. Rather, the electors of a state can only give their votes to ONE of either the President or VP. Meaning a party would run the very real risk of giving the VP position to the other party if it were a swing state. Florida, for example.

A quick note on the Latino Vote since we’ve got most of the data in to draw conclusions (looking at you California)…

I’ve been a studying and analyzing state and national data since the 1992 cycle and there’s one constant: If one side disagrees with the exit polls they’ll produce their own ‘data’ to draw the conclusions they want. If they like it they’ll stick with it.

There has been an unfortunate growth in ‘Latino experts’ recently, many of whom I’ve never heard of before this year. Beware!

Remember that last week Kevin McCarthy tried to get the head of the US Chamber fired. Bold move when you’re from the shrinking establishment wing of the GOP.

Scoop: McCarthy privately floats replacing Chamber leadership axios.com/2022/11/02/sco… McCarthy is now being told he must bend the knee to Trump & declare 2024 support for him if he wants the votes to be speaker.

He is now completely without a loyal base & his fortunes are tied inextricably to Trump.

Texas 🔥 My highest rated pollsters in Texas show Abbott holding 7 point lead over Beto.

Abbott pulling in 39% of Hispanic vote.

@TexHPF
@JasonVillalba @TheLatino_Vote @ChuckRocha

https://twitter.com/JasonWhitely/status/1574232292045692935

Not sure who needs to hear this but immigration is a bigger motivator for white Republican women than Abortion in Texas.

GOP is betting that’s everywhere.

Good analysis here from pollster who conducted Washington Post poll. Among the findings: Independents leaning GOP by 5 points, economy outpaces abortion as turnout preference for wider swath of voters langerresearch.com/wp-content/upl… Most notable: Among those living in congressional districts that are rated as at least somewhat competitive by ABC’s FiveThirtyEight (neither solid Republican nor solid Democratic), registered voters favor Republican candidates by a wide 55-34 percent –

Some quick notes on Kevin McCarthy’s speech:

1. The location matters. Manufacturing facility in Scranton PA is a direct message to blue collar base voters. This is a base election for GOP now. He’s not in the suburbs with soccer moms - he’s with blue collar men. 2. Biden will be making appearances in PA also. That’s a sign of confidence. Not often a first term Prez is out on the road in the mid-terms.

Both parties have laid their marker on FEAR. How scared is your base? Anger, yes…but anger is a function of fear.

Remember how aggressively the flying monkeys protected the wicked witch in the Wizard of Oz? Then when she melted the fever broke?

It’s gonna be like that. Planning the re-election campaign

It’s hard to find an American who spent more time trying to reconcile the greatness of America with the evil origins of the American story than Frederick Douglass. Frederick Douglass refused to allow Americans to ignore the complete story of her founding and her present.

He stood up, holding a mirror to the nation and refused to be ignored.

Douglass was perhaps our nations greatest patriot because of that.

Mike Pence is not a hero.

Cassidy Hutchinson is not a hero.

The question of heroism is bubbling up and I think it’s timely to consider the question - What is a hero? First, anyone can act heroically and they should be lauded for those acts. We are all both Sinner and Saint and we should be careful to judge both ourselves and others before slapping on the title ‘hero’.

Can we talk numbers for a bit? Here’s the public polling that has come out after the overturning of Roe

-@maristpoll: Democrats +7
-@MorningConsult: Democrats +3
-@YouGov: Democrats +7 Each of these polls show measurable movement towards the Democrats - nearly all of it coming from Independent voters.

These are extraordinary shifts on a generic ballot test and it’s quite likely that at least some of the current intensity reflects the shock in the moment

55%, or about 19.6 million Latinos, of the United States Hispanic population identify as Catholic. 22% are Protestant, 16% being Evangelical Protestants, and the last major category places 18% as unaffiliated. pewresearch.org/religion/2014/…

https://twitter.com/hunnybun100/status/1540777106157645824

A large majority (71%) of white Americans identify as Christian. Half (50%) are Protestant, including 23% who identify as evangelical and 27% who are mainline Protestant. Another 19% are Catholic, 2% are Mormon, & less than 1% each are Jehovah's Witnesses or Orthodox Christians.