A quick note on Latino voters: Latinos are a notoriously late deciding vote. We are also challenging to poll because sample sizes often aren’t big enough to accurately reflect voter sentiment in baseline polls. The FL polling is instructive but needs to be considered cautiously
Any poll looking at Hispanic voters in Florida with a sample size <200 in a state as diverse as Florida can’t accurately gauge sentiment. Hispanics are 18% of the statewide vote, Cubans are about 1/3rd, Puerto Rican’s about 1/3rd and the remaining is other South & Central Am’s.
That means, if properly weighted, the sample sizes of Cubans & Puerto Rican’s in the poll had sample sizes of 60 people or so - not a good look at all. Having said that I & others who specialize here, have been very vocal about warning signs with the Latino vote all year
There are very few pollsters who I have any degree of confidence in when gauging Hispanic political opinion. Many are run by partisans & academics more interested in leveraging contracts than being competent political advisors. This is a very big on-going problem for DEMs
PEW remains the gold standard but doesn’t chase political campaign dynamics.
Regardless while I am and have been concerned about the Latino vote for Biden (I raised the same alarms about Clinton in ‘16 - she had the exact same problem just smaller) there is time to correct it with a change in tactics. This can be fixed but time is getting short.
There needs to be both a massive investment in a GOTV program with Puerto Ricans & non-Cuban Hispanics coupled with an aggressive campaign challenging Trump in Miami-Dade to mitigate the Cuban vote expansion. Ceding ground on socialism when Trump is already a dictator is crazy.
Bottom line: This is fixable. It needs to be addressed seriously now and resources sufficiently. This is a MAJOR problem in the Democratic Party. It’s one I’ve watched and competed against successfully on the GOP side for years. Latinos will pass blacks as 2nd largest votinggroup
Stop ignoring and delaying attention to Latino voters. Those days are gone if you want to be a competitive party nationally.

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More from @madrid_mike

2 Sep
Lots of polls today. Quick thread on new Quinnipiac poll:

At the moment Trump is losing. On job approval, on coronavirus response, on making people feel safe in their communities, and most of all, head to head with Joe Biden.
15% of Republicans say the country is *worse* off than 4 years ago and among Independents that’s 60-36. Trump is losing 65+ and college ed white voters in approval on the economy, Covid, overall job approval.
The trends over the last 5 months have been that voter views on the pandemic & overall job approval are more strongly connected to who the voter will likely break for in the GE than their economic views - which is the only area that Trump still barely has an edge over Biden on
Read 10 tweets
15 Aug
THREAD:
Trump & QANON: A new danger to America.Republicans have taken up the QAnon conspiracy that a “deep state” is plotting against them. 18 GOP HOUSE CANDIDATES who have received the party’s nomination have drunk the kool-aid as well.

Many have taken OATHS to the conspiracy.
The majority of those 18 candidates running are competing in heavily Democratic House districts. But this list of QAnon-esque candidates is only likely to grow.

There are 11 more candidates STILL running in primaries who are supporters of the conspiracy.
The candidate most likely to win a House seat is @mtgreenee in Georgia’s 14th. Marjorie Greene is outspoken of her support for QAnon. She has also made racist & Islamaphobic comments.
Read 24 tweets
1 Aug
THREAD: Trump & GOP Enablers' Delay to Act on Covid-Economy

Trump & his enablers for months have been so confident that there was no need to act -- that the economy was strong and their Covid response was sufficient.

Here’s the reality:
*155k Americans have lost their lives. Hospitalizations & infections have surged. STILL no coordinated federal action by Trump for five months.

AGAIN - NO federal coordination after 155,000 Americans dead.
The cascading economic effects of Trump’s incompetence and inaction:

*30m Americans just stopped receiving fed unemployment benefits -- they will see an income drop of 50-75%; 47% of those recipients are nonwhite
Read 8 tweets
28 Jul
THREAD: Covid Polling in Sunbelt States & the expanding battlefield

Thousands of Americans are dying daily from Covid w/no end in sight. Trumps solution is to craft a facade. He's returned to the briefing room in an attempt to reverse what he knows to be true - he has failed
A competent leader would create a national strategy, increase testing, establish contact tracing, consult the experts, and value human life more than points on the Stock Exchange.
*TX reached 5,000 deaths on Sunday -- an increase of 1,000 deaths in 6 days.
*But TX has started to see daily infections decline- 6,000 daily infections instead of 10k previous.
*TX sits at a 12.9% positive test rate. Earlier in July, it had reached 17.9%. Only 6% contact traced
Read 14 tweets
28 Jul
THREAD ON TRUMP & GOP COVID-ECONOMIC FAILURE:
@ProjectLincoln

Donald Trump & Republican enablers were warned months ago that their Covid aid & economic response was not enough. The president’s incompetence towards the pandemic has only accelerated the need for immediate action
Trump wants people to get over the pandemic and just “find something new.” With income uncertainty, housing instability, and food insecurity all at historic highs, the U.S. is on the verge of the largest economic collapse since the Great Depression.
*Under Trump and Senate Republicans’ proposal, 30 million currently unemployed Americans stand to lose 70% of their weekly $600 federal unemployment benefits -- a measure that was empirically proven to prevent a mass exodus into poverty during the pandemic.
Read 15 tweets
21 Jul
THREAD: Trump’s pandemic incompetence & mismanagement spreads to schools reopening. @ProjectLincoln.

Trump is going to hold states’ funding hostage unless they reopen schools. He has made public health political and now he’s making education political.
This is the same unhinged INCOMPETENCE that Trump embraced when he pushed for states to reopen before they had adequate testing, tracing, and PPE -- and look where we are now.
Trump says he's following CDC guidelines while also altering those guidelines b/c they’re “too tough.” Trump won't devote resources to keep our children & educators safe. Instead he's trying to convince us the virus is a cold & will just “sort of disappear.” Nobody believes this
Read 15 tweets

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