“Judging from earlier scandals, revelations about President Donald Trump's deceit about coronavirus and derogation of fallen soldiers won't repel many of his supporters.
“But that doesn't mean the revelations don't hurt him. The furor they touched off has kept the President from tackling a re-election challenge much harder than preserving his loyal ‘base.’ cnn.com/2020/09/13/pol…
“With support hovering around 43% nationally, Trump needs a chunk of new supporters to overcome Democratic nominee Joe Biden's lead. He has just more than seven weeks to lure them. And he faces a significant obstacle that he didn't in 2016: a smaller pool of available prospects.
“The circumstances of 2020 limit his opportunities for several overlapping reasons:
“Fewer voters remain undecided.
“Fewer voters have parked their preferences with third-party candidates.
“Fewer voters face the cross-pressures of antipathy toward their choices.
“Result: in CNN's post-convention poll, just 7% reported disliking both candidates. Most favored Biden. Compare that to 18% in 2016, where most broke for trump.”
“The vagaries of the Electoral College mean Biden could lose even while capturing 51% support nationally. Drawing within 3-4 points in the popular vote, election modelers say, would give Trump a reasonable chance.
“But in individual swing states, anything over 50% wins. And Biden already reaches or approaches that level in enough battlegrounds to win.”

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Hal Marshall

Hal Marshall Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @HalMarshall2309

13 Sep
More strategic thinking from Bloomberg — he wants to eliminate trump’s ability to say he won on election night by denying him a critical 29 electoral votes. washingtonpost.com/politics/bloom…
“Bloomberg’s aim is to prompt enough early voting that a pro-Biden result would be evident soon after the polls close. Florida, unlike other swing states, reports almost all early ballots shortly after voting ends.
“Democrats and Republicans have worried that early results will dictate public perceptions of who will ultimately win the election. In many states, the first reported votes are more Republican, …
Read 6 tweets
6 Sep
A different look at the election based not on polling, but high quality Pew and Census surveys. The conclusion: “in a fair election, Biden would beat the president by at least 10 million votes today and carry four of the five swing states Trump won in 2016 … .”
Donald Trump’s heated racial appeals betray his growing political problem with white voters. Trump is running far behind Joe Biden in national polls because, according to data from the Pew Research Center, …
“his 20 percentage-point advantage with white voters in 2016 (57% to 37%) dwindled to nine points by mid-August of this year (54% to 45%). Trump’s deficit with Hispanic voters is actually less than in 2016, down from 38 to 28 percentage-points (35% to 63%).
Read 10 tweets
5 Sep
“Jennifer Griffin caused an unexpected media firestorm Friday when she did something fairly routine for a reporter: A competitor had broken a story on her beat, so she set out to see whether she could match it.
“In this case, it was the Atlantic’s blockbuster report that President Trump had made disparaging remarks about veterans. Griffin, a national security correspondent for Fox News, ...
“found sources to validate key aspects of the story, sharing her reporting on Twitter and on anchor Bret Baier’s news show.”
Read 4 tweets
23 Aug
Maryanne Trump Barry was serving as a federal judge when she heard her brother, President Trump, on Fox News.

“At the time, children were being separated from their parents and put in cramped quarters while court hearings dragged on.
“ ‘All he wants to do is appeal to his base,’ Barry said in a conversation secretly recorded by her niece, Mary L. Trump. ‘He has no principles. None. None. And his base, I mean my God, if you were a religious person, you want to help people. Not do this.’
“Barry, 83, was aghast at how her 74-year-old brother operated as president. ‘His goddamned tweet and lying, oh my God,’ she said. ‘I’m talking too freely, but you know. The change of stories. The lack of preparation. The lying. Holy shit.’
Read 8 tweets
22 Aug
If I were a Representative questioning DeJoy I would PRAY for him to say something like “I’m offended by your attacks on my character” or “your inference” or whatever.

Then it’s go time for righteous indignation.
“Mr. Postmaster General I am offended by the havoc you have wreaked on this jewel of the American Republic.
“I am offended that you have failed to deliver lifesaving medicines on time.
Read 8 tweets
22 Aug
@NastyOldWomyn @katieporteroc @ColinAllredTX
The more I think about it, the more I think the House should focus primarily on WHAT is happening with mail delivery, as opposed to WHY (that comes later). Here’s what I’d ask DeJoy.
“Mr. DeJoy, as Postmaster General of the United States, the job of the Post Office is to deliver the mail, right?”
Any answer is acceptable.

If he agrees, you add:

“More specifically, Postmaster General, the job of the Post Office is to deliver the mail ON TIME, right?”
Read 23 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!