COVID Update September 14: For every 10% of people who won't take a vaccine, that leads to about 100,000 more deaths over 4 months. 1/
I spent the day playing with a new toy: a model engineer and pandemic expert Bill Joy built for me. It's rough numbers and filled with a lot of assumptions, but it divides the country into groups: Cs and Ns.
Cs where a mask & take a vaccine when available.
Ns don't do either. 2/
The more people that become Cs, the quicker we move on & the fewer people who will die. This assumes that Ns spread COVID at an R of 1.4 & Cs at 0.4. That is, a vaccine or mask won't work perfectly & people who aren't compliant only spread the virus above average, not wildly. 3/
Those numbers-- some people spreading the virus to 1.4 people & some to 0.4-- work out about right at today's level of cases if 60-70% of people are relatively compliant today. 4/
I should also add that there are two types of non-compliant people
--those who voluntarily non-comply-- anti-vaxxers, fauxers, young people at parties & bars.
--those who don't comply unvoluntarily because of exposure-- essential workers, farm workers, multi-gen households 5/
If 10% more people become compliant, it saves about 100,000 people's lives in 4 months. If 10% of people become less compliant, 100,000 more people (or so) die. (This model uses a death rate of .8, but gives an answer over 100,000 so this is rounding if .6 is more accurate.) 6/
The actions of 1% of the population effect 10,000 lives over the next few months. 6/
Now let me pause here before I go onto the implications.
It was only a few months ago when we watched TV solmenly as the first 1000 people died. And I'm aware that analyses like this only coarsen us to accepting large numbers of deaths-- which I think is a very big problem. 7/
So I'm really hesitant to write about this work because when I stare at the spreadsheet my eyes glaze over. It makes me feel hollow. I don't want to lose the ability to mourn a single death or to somehow feel relieved if the death rates drop to a few hundred per day. 8/
I also add that its really a bad idea to think of people with COVID as living or dying (which I am doing here). More people are surviving, but chronic COVID conditions are relatively serious cardiac, kidney, brain & lung function. Long haulers episode. 9/
We have people who are not only growing numb but are mocking these losses openly.
People who mocked @larrybrilliant and @mtosterholm for years as fear mongers you would think would be saying-- well, "I guess they were right," are instead doubling down. 10/
If ignorant and selfish had a baby, the baby's first act step would be to threaten a public health commissioner for promoting masks. 11/
What are the implications of this model? 1. The first lesson is for the @US_FDA. Vaccine trust. You roll out a vaccine and if 20% more people don't trust it because you politicized it, 200,000 more people die.
Roll out the vaccine the right way and save lives. 12/
This has nothing to do with the effectiveness of the vaccine BUT the process by which it is rolled out. Consistent transparent data on safety will make a big difference.
If we wait 1-2 months to roll out the vaccine but do it with high trust, you could save more lives. 13/
2. A vaccine matters for different groups for different reasons.
-Compliant groups need it because they won't build immunity
-Non-compliant groups need it to save their lives
All of us need it because reaching a certain level of immunity brings the virus to a negligible level14
3. As we know we take action for others here, not just ourselves.
In a greater good or "all boats" society like Japan, this fact raises compliance & lowers death tolls quickly
In an individualistic society, it likely means prolonged agony & death 15/
The number of people who die every day, while monstrous, is apparently not high enough to make the individualistic (or self-centered) people worry the Russian roulette bullet will end up in their chamber. 16/
4. Most of the people who die are non-compliant people. And it would be tempting to say-- "individualist" + "knowingly tempting fate" = "they made their own bed."
But remember all of the involuntary non-compliant people. 17.
Who are these people. Chances are they work for you.
They're growing our food.
They're packing & distributing it.
They're working in stores.
They have lower incomes & live in more crowded settings.
And... 18/
They are people we label vulnerable--
In nursing homes, vulnerable to spread
With illnesses or disabilities
In congregate care settings
They are the people society always victimizes & we're victimizing them again 19/
5. Our policies towards essential workers in any just society would dictate our behavior.
If we have a lot of people working for us so we can keep the economy (& our basic systems) moving, that obligates us to compliance-- masks, social distancing, vaccinations. 20/
In a nutshell, if you want to be "individualistic," don't actually depend on people.
Go hunt rabbit, live in the woods, pee outside, don't collect social security and sure, be free not to wear a mask. 21/
However, stop with the phony individualism.
This is the final conclusion that the model leaves me with. If you want to go see the Alabama-Auburn game, but a hot dog, have people pick up your litter, you're dependent on about 1000 people. Go to the grocery store & its 100,000.22/
Bottom line: science will get us out of the mess we couldn't manage to get ourselves out of. And with a vaccine we can trust, that can happen in 2021.
But we can choose the cost in lives. That's the power we have. 23/
That's how I spent my Sunday. How did you spend yours? /end
By the way, more than 80% of the time I get the date correct on my threads. #BeforeYouJudgeMe
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“Ron DeSantis is taking the politics of being a bully to a different level,” Sykes tells me. “He’s decided he's going to move as hard and demagogically to the right as he can. He’s learned something from Donald Trump: you don’t need to be a nice guy.” 2/
Sykes says DeSantis is exploiting the culture wars in order to tap into Republicans’ grievances, and that the GOP sees the Florida governor as a “younger, smarter” but equally combative replacement for Trump. But DeSantis stands out from other conservatives for a reason. 3/
Some thoughts on using Twitter:
With Musk inviting back people who use the platform to threaten rape, to lie at scale & become whatever else his whims decide, here are some actions worth considering …
-Mute all advertisers in your feed. I’m not going to be a revenue source & don’t want those who advertise here to be encouraged.
-If you have a lot of followers or post a lot, consider moving the bulk of your content elsewhere. Post looks promising. (I’m @ASlavitt there.)
-I’m also on Mastadon to check it out & until Post is done with its waitlist & will eventually pick one.
-I continue to occasionally check the news feed here & promote things on Twitter minimally & will cross-post for a short time as people decide what they want to do.
COVID Update: It’s time for one as we look ahead to the winter.
The real question is whether we will have another 2021 with a lot of disruption— on a more modest wave— or nothing at all.
There is early data to help answer this question. 1/
Currently there are lots of Omicron sub-variants co-circulating around the globe.
Household names like:
BA.4.6
BQ1.1
XBB
While it’s all a little hard to follow, there’s something interesting about the nature of these variants. 2/
Variants: 1- These are all variants of Omicron. This is good. Better than dealing with a Delta variant emerging. Makes progression more closely resemble the flu. 2- Each are growing in different parts of the world without 1 being dominant. We could have a mix this winter.3/
NEW: COVID vaccines will now be recommended annually, with the flu shot.
I spoke to the White House yesterday about the plan. 1/
Rather than an ad hoc schedule which confuses many as to when to get vaccinated, the thinking is that an annual shot will result in many more people getting vaccinated.
They point to 2/3 of adults who take the flu vaccine vs 1/3 of adults over 50 who have been taking COVID. 2/
We have infrastructure, outreach, and habits that can be capitalized to get people their flu and COVID vaccines together.
This is the prime benefit.
But of course it comes with some questions they are preparing to address. 3/