Four principles for thinking about CO₂ removal: 1. Don't forget the long game 2. It's not all about CO₂ 3. Split, don't lump 4. Don't bet it all on being right
Cutting GHG emissions must remain at the center of that strategy: CDR would be too slow, expensive, and technically uncertain to replace the need for rapid emissions reductions.
3. Different roles for CDR:
* Mop up to compensate for hard-to-abate (or expensive-to-abate) sectors
* Mop up after agricultural sectors (net-zero GHG emissions)
* Draw down "legacy carbon" remaining in the atmosphere from past emissions
4. Can start deploying CDR now (e.g., ecosystem restoration or afforestation), but if gigatonne scale CDR is needed later this century, then now is the time to get started on developing and adopting appropriate policies for CDR research, development, & rollout.
5. Second, it is not all about the carbon
Different approaches to CDR have different resource requirements & different social & environmental impacts.
Are we talking about an individual farmer adopting cover-crops or a multinational cooperation doing Direct Air Capture?
6. Is BECCS all bad?
Compare a small BECCS facility fueled by local municipal waste with a BECCS system in which huge swathes of commercially farmed land provide switchgrass to fuel large power plants that pipe carbon dioxide long distances for sequestration.
7. Evaluating CDR at the level of broad technologies or practices obscures these differences. A complete assessment of CDR requires assessing not only cost and sequestration potential but also environmental and social impacts.
8. Third, split don't lump
Not all CDR is created equal in terms of social, economic, & environmental impacts, & nuanced positions are needed to distinguish better technologies, practices, projects, and policies from worse ones.
E.g, not all BECCS is created equal...
9. Fourth, Don't bet it all on being right
Large-scale CDR might fail, but rapid short-term emission reductions might not emerge either.
Don't put all your cookies in one basket whether CDR or rapid reductions, both are needed.
10. We agree that precaution precludes us from betting it all on CDR’s panning out as the models project. We also worry about making the opposite mistake by counting only on rapid emissions abatement.
One of the key arguments that Norway uses to continue oil & gas developments, is that under BAU it is expected that oil & gas production will decline in line with <2°C scenarios, even with continued investment.
Let's look closer at these projections & reality...
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Here is the projections from the 2003 report from the petroleum agency.
In reality (tweet 1) there was a dip around 2010, but production is now up around 250 million cubic again.
The forecast was totally & utterly WRONG!
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In 2011 there was a forecast for an increase in production to 2020, but then a decline. This is probably since they started to put the Johan Sverdrup field on the books.
The increase in production was way too low, again, they got it wrong.
CO2 emissions by fossil fuel:
* We thought coal peaked in 2014. No, & up another 1.1% in 2023
* Oil up 1.5%, on the back of a 28% increase in international aviation & China, but oil remains below 2019 level. 🤞
* Has the golden age of gas come to an end thanks to Russia?
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By top emitters:
* China up 4.0% & a peak this year would be a surprise
*US down 3.0%, with coal at 1903 levels
* India up 8.2%, with fossil CO2 clearly above the EU27
* EU27, down 7.4% with drops in all fuels
* Bunkers, up 11.9% due to exploding international aviation
Is the new @DrJamesEHansen et al article an outlier, or rather mainstream?
At least in terms of the key headline numbers, it seems rather mainstream, particularly if you remember most headline key numbers have quite some uncertainty!
The Remaining Carbon Budget for 1.5°C is now smaller because: 1) We have not reduced emissions in three years 2) Updated simple climate models because of updated historical aerosol emissions 3) Some new method choices
The update for 2°C has similar changes for each component, but because the budget is much bigger, the changes don't seem that dramatic. Not Nature Climate Change worthy...
The changes to the 1.5°C budget seem dramatic, because the budget is basically gone.
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These updates are not new. A few years back 1.5°C was considered "geophysically impossible", but not after a revised budget:
I wrote a post on the utility of 1.5°C budgets back then, obviously ignored. Also on non-CO2.