My analysis of Afrin Liberation Forces footage of a series of ATGM attacks against Turkish/Turkish backed militia positions around Jindires (Afrin region - N. Aleppo).
It shows a 7 Metis-pattern ATGMs fired in quick succession.

The Assads regime is known to be the main supplier of ATGMs (mostly 9M113 Konkurs) to the ALF in the past, with the only realistic alternative being small purchases of various ATGMs from corrupt pro-Turkey rebel groups.
The number of ATGMs used in this attack indicates that ALF recently received a new substantial shipment of Metis-pattern ATGM from the regime.
What seems to be more interesting is that based on the observed time-of-flight (up to 12 seconds) ATGMs used appear to be 9K115-2 Metis-M1 which entered the service in the Russian Army only relatively recently (March 2016) - previous versions of Metis have shorter time-of-flight.
So, it appears that the Assad regime has been supplied with 9K115-2 Metis-M1 ATGMs by Russia and in turn, they (likely with the knowledge/approval of Russia) have supplied the ALF with these modern ATGMs so they can be used against Turkish forces and their proxy forces in Afrin.
The question now is whether Turkey will decide to retaliate (especially if these ATGM attacks escalate) and if so whether it will be by further arming rebel groups in Idlib, or by more direct action(s) against the Assad regime.
h/t @Kyruer @CalibreObscura for the footage.

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More from @Rebel44CZ

30 May
/thread/ As a result of 5 years of my effort (with help from many others) to recover +archive SCW footage, I can now, based on archived visual evidence, award the SAA with an achievement for losing 3000+ armored tracked vehicles. 2346 rebel ATGM shots have also been documented.
Visually confirmed regime armor losses (per type) since the start of the SCW:

BMP-1: 841
BMP-2: 19
BVP-1 AMB-S: 64
Shilka: 116
2S1 Gvozdika: 77
2S3 Akatsiya: 11
tank (type not IDed): 560
T-55: 464
T-62: 219
T-72: 578
T-90: 6
ARVs: 44
total: 3006
Visually confirmed regime armor losses (per year) since the start of the SCW:

2011: 22
2012: 585
2013: 639
2014: 474
2015: 365
2016: 332
2017: 282
2018: 77
2019: 75
2020: 155
total: 3006
Read 9 tweets
11 May
/thread/ After finding more old SCW footage, here is a thread with updated stats for visually confirmed regime armor losses and rebel ATGM use since the start of the SCW
Visually confirmed regime armor losses (per type) since the start of the SCW:

BMP-1: 788
BMP-2: 19
BVP-1 AMB-S: 64
Shilka: 113
2S1 Gvozdika: 73
2S3 Akatsiya: 11
tank (type not IDed): 577
T-55: 431
T-62: 203
T-72: 549
T-90: 6
ARVs: 45
total: 2885
Visually confirmed regime armor losses (per year) since the start of the SCW:

2011: 22
2012: 572
2013: 595
2014: 463
2015: 348
2016: 330
2017: 249
2018: 77
2019: 75
2020: 154
total: 2885
Read 9 tweets
24 Jan
A thread about identification of ATGM used in Syrian Civil War based on visual clues, launch sounds, and flight patterns:

(videos of all mentioned ATGMs will be posted at the end of this thread)
2. Identification of the following ATGMs models will be addressed in this thread:
9M133 Kornet / AT-14 Spriggan
9M113 Konkurs / AT-5 Spandrel
9K111 Fagot / AT-4 Spigot
9K115-2 Metis-M / AT-13 Saxhorn-2
9M14 Malyutka / AT-3 Sagger
HJ-8 / Red Arrow-8
BGM-71 TOW is a wire-guided US ATGM that entered service in the 1970s. The version seen in Syria is model BGM-71E TOW 2A, which is optimized to defeat reactive armor with tandem warheads.
Read 19 tweets
6 Jan
Thread: Updated statistics of Syrian rebel use of ATGMs (from the early days of SCW until the end of 2019).

(many more ATGM shots were taken but were never filmed or evidence has been lost/deleted).
Rebel ATGM launches by type:

AT-3 Sagger: 34
AT-4 Spigot: 224
AT-5 Spandrel: 185
AT-7 Saxhorn: 56
AT-14 Spriggan: 163
BGM-71 TOW: 1200
Milan: 16
HJ-8 Red Arrow: 51
Uknown ATGM: 74
total: 2003
Rebel ATGM launches by year:

2011: 0
2012: 6
2013: 146
2014: 239
2015: 530
2016: 643
2017: 218
2018: 63
2019: 159
total: 2003
Read 7 tweets
17 Aug 19
Thread about Syrian rebel use of ATGMs since the start of the SCW including statistics, and analysis of use - all based on archived visual evidence.
First some statistics of Syrian rebel use of ATGM since the start of SCW:
The total number of visually confirmed rebel ATGM shots since the start of the SCW is currently at 1831.
On the attached picture, you can see a graph of use per month.
The number of recorded rebel ATGM launches per year part 1:
2011: 0
2012: 6
2013: 122
2014: 163
2015: 503
Read 30 tweets
29 May 18

The UK unlawfully copying data from EU police system
The United Kingdom has been illegally copying classified personal information from a database reserved for members of the passport-free Schengen travel zone.
It has shared the information with US companies and it is demanding to keep access to the database after it leaves the EU next year.
An internal EU document, seen by EUobserver, listed years of violations by Uk authorities following restricted access to the Schengen Information System, an EU-run database used by police to track down undocumented migrants, missing people, stolen property, or suspected criminals
Read 10 tweets

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