Thread by @FPL_Gents

Tactical Analysis GW1 {THREAD}

- How heavily should we target Fulham defense in FPL?
- Is Bellerin worth the price?
- What is Willian's role at his new club?

#FPL #FPLCommunity

As the new season begins I wanted to start a new series where I use my tactical knowledge as a football coach and apply it to FPL. We will take a look at the skills and roles of players and how it affects the FPL output of themselves and their teammates.

Part 1: Fulham
The majority of this thread will focus on Arsenal’s players since they are the most interesting FPL assets. But I wanted to share my view on how Fulham looked in this game to give you an idea of how they might perform this season. To summarize their attack:

This picture from WhoScored shows that Fulham had 5 attempts all game and only one came from inside the box. Their chances added up to a total of 0.13 expected goals. What felt like Fulham’s most dangerous chances were opportunities that won’t register in the xG category though.

They had some crosses close to the goal where their players didn’t arrive first to the ball. As well as a 1 v 1 with the goalkeeper where Leno intercepted Kamara’s attempt to go around him.

Fulham were comfortable playing from the back and did it quite well in the first half.

With a surprisingly high 48% ball possession in the first 45'. This was mostly thanks to the fact that Arsenal had a pessimistic approach to the game, often falling with their team instead of putting on a high press. Arsenal eventually realized how effective a higher press was,

but Fulham still tried to play with what is called a low risk passing style. There are different interpretations of the term “low risk”, the most common is that a low risk approach has a higher chance of keeping the ball within the team, and that’s how I’m using the term.

But a valid argument is that a shorter pass in fact should be the one called high risk because if you lose the ball then it’s closer to your own goal, and the following video is an example of just that!

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Since Arsenal has a good press, Fulham should consider a longer ball in this instance instead. Playing a short pass here means that the teammate receiving the ball will have to shield it well. He will also be very isolated in this instance since none of his teammates are close..

..to him. The ball hits Bellerin instead and Fulham’s team is disorganized while Arsenal with their high press already have a lot of players close to goal. This is one of countless occasions where Arsenal failed to punish Fulham.

It was encouraging to see Fulham’s intention to play with low risk, but their confidence became naiveness sometimes and this unwillingness to go for a longball will hurt them a lot when they face team’s that utilize a good defensive press. Now let’s look at how Fulham defended.

Their main liability in my opinion was centre back Hector.

In this first video of Hector, Bellerin transports the ball and is looking to find Lacazette. Hector is retreating, but Bellerin plays Laca on his feet instead of a through pass. Hector tries to intercept...

... the ball before Laca gets control, but he reacts too slowly and instead clips Laca’s feet.

There’s a couple of problems with giving away a free kick here. First of all it’s obviously a good opportunity to score, Willian almost did. But if we look at Laca’s teammates...

..., they are nowhere near him, and not in threatening positions. Which means that Fulham is in a superior numerical advantage and Hector should try to hold his ground and let a teammate help him out with the press. Also consider if Hector misses both the ball and Laca, then...

... Laca could just go on towards goal for a 1 v 1 with the keeper because Hector’s centreback partner arguably isn’t close enough to the action to catch Laca. Things would only get worse for Hector and Fulham.

This next video shows how Aubameyang sees that there’s a lot of space behind the backline and starts his run to become a passing option for his teammate. Auba starts reaching top speed just when the ball leaves Xhaka’s feet.

The press on Xhaka is non-existent which is a...

..problem that manifests itself often when Fulham is defending. When there is no press on the ball carrier it means that he is more likely to make a better and more threatening pass. It’s a fundamental principle for the defender to drop in this instance in order to cover the most

...dangerous area. Notice how Hector barely starts dropping down to cover this space against one of the fastest players in the world. Auba and his pace prevails as he arrives first to the ball without any real competition. Kudos to Auba & Xhaka for a well executed drop ball...

...and a well timed run, but it’s the sloppy defense that made it possible in the first place.

I could go on and on about Hector’s poor performance. He lost a ball in his own penalty box from barely no pressure. He was the one at fault on Gabriel’s corner goal, not even..

..jumping to pressure his air time. I’ll just show you one more example of what seems to be poor tactical understanding and execution.

Arsenal has done well in the build up play and is now on a 3 v 3...

Hector should fall back, but still be close enough to Auba to try and slow him down, so that his defensive midfielders can catch up and gain a numerical advantage. Instead Hector tries to win the ball on his own, a tough task vs Auba in top speed, he fails and Arsenal is now 3v2

I heard that Scott Parker has added defensive solidity to Fulham since their last PL season. Based on this game, I think they will struggle just as much as they did in 18/19. It wasn’t just Hector who was dreadful. Any attacking winger on Odoi’s flank will fancy their chances.

(Twitter won't let me Post anymore tweets until I post all of this, so bare with me for a few minutes 😀 )

Part 2: Bellerin & Arsenal’s defence

Bellerin was the most forward Arsenal defender. Bellerin’s passes were the most effective in creating danger in future and immediate attacking moves. In this formation Maitland-Niles and Bellerin were the ones who were wingbacks on paper.

But Bellerin was significantly more involved in the offensive play. So is he worth the extra cash in FPL? Let’s explore his positioning and chances he created.

In this next clip Willian provides width and Fulham’s left back Bryan moves towards him.

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This was an example of Willian staying wide and Bellerin running into the channel between fullback and centreback. In terms of FPL it’s very attractive that Bellerin occupies these areas as often as possbile. More often though it will be the other way around...

...that Bellerin stays wide and Willian runs into the space. And Bellerin who doesn’t have the same passing ability will have a harder time finding Willian in that space. This next video shows an example of this.

Bellerin’s crosses weren’t great either. But I think his position is. Another example of Willian staying wide and Bellering drifting inwards. He is acting like a central midfielder in this attack. But he was occasionally handing the ball over to the opposition very cheaply

When Fulham’s centre back Hector is out of position Auba attacks that space and this time Bellerin has a lot of time and finds Auba who came close to scoring.

Next clip shows how Bellerin sees an opportunity to join the attack and is close to scoring. It would have been ruled offside had he scored, but it’s the positions that he gets into, and the chances he creates that are important to look at.

So keep an eye on him, if he can keep getting into these positions versus other opponents then he’ll eventually score attacking returns and could be a very interesting prospect.

Part 3: Willian

The man of the match. If you didn’t watch the game and just looked at the team sheet you would think he was played as a winger. And he kinda was, but his role was very versatile. He is not an inverted winger, meaning left footed on the right wing, and I don’t...

..think it would suit him much to stay too wide either because it’s a little awkward for him to drift inwards. One of his signature moves is to fake a shot and take a touch with the outside of his boot to give himself space to shoot.

His role was more like a central midfielder that occupied space slightly to the right and forward. I will show you some attacking moves as well as defensive to give you a clearer picture.

Here you can see that when he is collecting the ball he is in the same line on the pitch as Xhaka and Elneny. He wants to be a playmaker and be on the ball and his responsibility is to find the right pass in Arsenal’s attacks.

Next up is another example of how he is deeper than Laca but more forward than the other central midfielders. He is a link between the forward line but he’s always closer to Laca than he is to Auba.

This makes his short passes go to Laca but his longer passes go to Auba as we can see in this example and more examples to come. The attack continues and you can see that Willian stays behind Laca. In the very end he sprints into an area where a cross might come. Very nice to see

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And here we see which area Willian is responsible for defensively. Not the wing, but rather he functions as a central right midfielder where his pace can help out in winning the ball.

Willian is dropping deep, notice how he looks up to see if he can cross it to Auba.

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- Expect Fulham to be the worst defense in the league.
- Bellerin was a threat this game.
- Willian is more central than Auba, and almost as forward as the attackers. He’s involved in most attacks.

Thanks for reading the whole thing and if you appreciate the format let us know