+UPDATE+

At least 3 Conservative MPs who are thinking of defying Johnson on the bill are being told by whips that if they insist on following the law they will end up as the 'next Dominic Grieve' - "in principle - but out of a job".
2/

I now have confirmation that Boris Johnson / Dominc Cummings have actively threatened Tory MPs with "being expelled from the Conservative Party" if they do not vote for Boris Johnson's law breaking "Internal Market Bill".
3/

Tom Newton Dunn from the 'Times Radio' has now also confirmed that the govt looking at "expelling Tory MPs" who do not back the govt's law breaking...

...this includes former Conservative ministers.
++UPDATE++

Nigel Farage threatens Conservative MPs who do not vote for Boris Johnson's law breaking Bill...

...with campaigns launched against them in their constituencies.

• • •

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More from @nicktolhurst

24 Sep
"The Northern Brexit vote".

1. It doesn't exist.
2. Its a myth invented by the media & politicians & due to the otherwise laudable achievement that Sunderland area is very good at counting votes quickly.

A thread.
2/

Every English region except London voted Leave - but the biggest Brexiters were Northerners - right?

Wrong.

The 2 regions with highest Leave vote:
East Midlands
West Midlands

Not only that but turnout was very high in both meaning that the Midlands absolute vote higher.
3/

"Yeah but Northern areas had the highest individual town votes right?"

Wrong.

The vast majority of high Leave voting areas were:
The Midlands
East England

Not a single North-West area had a top 20 Brexit.
Even London had one!

breakingnews.ie/world/20-areas…
Read 16 tweets
10 Sep
+UPDATE+

UK Treasury officials have pivoted to planning a no deal combined with higher taxation strategy post January. Previous research based on a "free trade Brexit" now seen as "unrealistic" in a post COVID global environment.
2/

UK Govt "highly conscious" that "significant expenditure will have to be distributed" to the "instant losers" of COVID & Brexit. No or limited deal with EU now seen as most likely outcome but in a "totally changed landscape" than imagined just last year.
3/

Consensus now emerging in Whitehall, that Britain will "not likely" sign "significant" trade deals with either EU or US & many other target states anytime soon. So the post Brexit economic model may have to radically change from one foreseen previously.
Read 4 tweets
7 Sep
All those Tory MPs that stood on a manfesto of the Withdrawal Agreement treaty & who voted it thru just a few short months ago...

...will now be required to vote for legislation that'll destroy the self same treaty.

This is what a pariah state does.
ft.com/content/9906e0…
2/

Here's Boris Johnson proclaiming that EVERY Conservative election candidate must pledge to support his treaty deal just 9 months ago...

...Now all Tory MPs whill have to pledge to support the destruction of the treaty.

The "mother of parliaments".

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
3/

Johnson has now decided that Brexit means the end of international law, conventions & treaties.

So if EU decide to punish UK arbitarily or Spain decide to cut off Gibraltar we will have nothing to say.
Nothing.

Do this and Britain becomes a pariah state.
Read 4 tweets
18 Aug
I really enjoyed my discussions with pro Brexit people on twitter detailing the benefits on trade & economy of Brexit. Often friendly - we might have disagreed but it was interesting.

Unfortunately, these petered out around 2018.

I never see these people here now.
Not one.
It’s why I never accuse every leave vote of being racist.

As I remember all the decent oft serious pro Brexiters from EFTAites & Brexit-as-catalyst-for-free-trade to constitutional-dignity Brexiters.

They’re all gone from here.

They know.

They’re just hoping for the best now.
2/

It’s important to remember this.

It’s not just “our EU” that’s gone it’s these sort of people - intelligent, informed & polite - it’s “their Brexit” that’s gone too.

Everyone sensible knows this.

The debate is - literally - over.

Brexit is dead but its still happening.
Read 11 tweets
18 Aug
Changing my mind about Wales.
A few years ago I’d have wrote off Welsh independence chances as below 0.1%.

But if Scots leave & prosper & Ireland unifies the dynamic completely changes.

At that point why be a mere appendage to a Brexit-nationalist England?
Countries need narratives, so..imagine this one..

It’s EU summit 2030
Scots & Irish leaders are walking on the world stage in front of cameras, with their EU commissioners.

And Wales?
They’ve got an English Tory govt they’ve never ever voted for....in 200 years of democracy.
3/

Even if majority of welsh against independence something will change.

The British narrative will have gone. Replaced by the English narrative.

This might work for England. But how is that going to work for Welsh?
Read 5 tweets
17 Aug
+UPDATE+

UK govt sources now briefing favored journalists that the algorithm system of grades will be completely overhauled for exam grades.

For whole of UK.
Once Scotland, Wales & N. Ireland trash the algorithm I don’t see how it’s sustainable for English students.

I mean it was a disaster in the 1st place - but you can’t have poor English students then double punished relative to richer & non English kids.

System gone by tonight.
4/

All GCSEs & A levels will have a “school predicted grade centered” approach throughout UK.

Looks like full U turn coming up within the hour.
Read 4 tweets

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