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Live Monitor Profile picture
@amlivemon
Sep 14, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
When dealing with a politically driven economy/market...relationships to leadership, a company’s locations and # of employees are key to determining the likelihood of government backstop support & your place in line for stimulus packages.

Tenneco $TEN is as good of an example
as you get today. Icahn has been playing his activist investor shtick around Wall Street for more than 50 years and made himself a fortune. His relationship with Trump is very public, his activist play on Tenneco is well documented & Tenneco occupies key locations in the Midwest.
A formidable voting block tied to the auto industry that the Trump administration is currently working on a stimulus package to boost the entire sector. Trump needs to seal up Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Tenneco, just like YRC Worldwide, has extensive workers with
families amounting to significant votes.

I expect a package at some point before the election directed towards the auto sector and a company like Tenneco will be greatly benefited.

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More from @amlivemon

Live Monitor Profile picture
Aug 10
Here are your questions answered:

What are your projections for Africa as we and France are getting edged out and losing influence? Medium to long term

I’m very bullish on very small portions of Africa, namely Namibia and Morocco. They have pushed for modernization of business and legal frameworks to give investors confidence. Namibia has a deep water port and key transport hub in the future while Morocco’s success speaks for itself.

The rest of Africa remains in a spiral of corruption where many global players can come in and manipulate govts for trade deals(not only China and Russia, but France and Italy)

-Will a Hamas/Israel deal get done by the end of next week?
Absolutely not with the Sabre rattling by Iran over current events.

-Art laffer surprisingly saying the weaponization of the dollar is causing counties to trade exclusively outside the system. And how it can lead to worse things later. Didn't go full brics but says it is a sign.

Weaponizing the dollar is nothing new. The levels to which Biden/Yellen admin have taken it to are concerning and likely shaved off 20 years from the US reserve currency status. None of us alive will see that day but damage has been done.

-Any sizeable chance of losing side not recognizing the election outcome in the US?

After Jan 6, its highly doubtful we have a repeat of one side not recognizing the winner. Will there be fanatic holdouts on either side? Surely, but nothing to be worried about.
-Potential fissures in the Russia/Iran relationship that could be exploited.

Always market share of global fuel supply. Russia and Iran are competitors in this market and Russia tends to stir up trouble globally to keep their share of oil to the markets(Venezuela, Libya, Iran…) Can this be exploited? Yes, but to great risk of a real problem in the Persian gulf.

-Smartmatic and electronic voting machines in foreign elections

France should be a model for elections. Fast, accurate and paper ballots backed up. Electronic machines however will be key to manipulation of elections in many nations at Big Tech have a monopoly on data globally.

Ukraine / Currents situation of US in Iraq & Syria
Ukraine-Russia conflict is dwindling down and likely will come to a status quo like in Georgia for many decades. The Russian paid a very heavy price militarily and these Ukraine offensives wont really do much to displace Moscow but will continue to siphon away resources. This conflict pretty much ended Russia’s threat to NATO for many decades. This wont be popular comment.

-Do you have a good line on South America?

South America’s movement to the Left has essentially put its economy and democracies back 10 steps. Venezuela there is little hope for regime change unless the US forces it, and i have been a big proponent of sending the US military in, but there is simply no appetite to send troops into conflict currently in DC and the State Dept is riddled with Leftist cancer even as their installed leaders in South America stab them in the back. Argentina is on a good path but their economy is so damaged that it will take decades to resolve. Colombia seems lost but there are may moderates there that will likely put the country back into the Right wing hands.

-Is NATO/US attempting to goad Russia into using tactical nuke first?
Seems that way, but we are taking stupid rhetoric from Gen Z staff in the the WH and left oriented State Dept words that have next to no meaning. Russia knows a tactical nuke would drastically change the cards they hold and likely increase tensions with Europe. I do not see a nuke happening because I do not see Russia collapsing nor facing a threat of invasion from NATO. Now if China did? Different story.

-Why there is not a feminist battalion fighting to defend women in gaza instead of letting Hamas men do the defending?

Women have roles in the Middle East and fighting is not really one of them.

-Prospects of Albanian island real estate.

You are late. There are only few islands and the biggest prize, Sazan Island, was just given basically to Trump family for development. This I find very odd since Edi Rama is very close to Soros.

-The Fourth Turning - real or hype?

Hype. Nothing more than cyclical problems large powerful societies go through when behind the scenes powers try to take control.

-Will they ever release or acknowledge in whole or part… the NHI program?

No. World isnt ready for such a thing.

-I’d like your take on the power dynamics inside MAGA. Is Vance really the MAGA successor? How much power does Don Jr and the Trump family wield over the GOP? How much power does Vance and his growing political infrastructure have? How much do the PayPal billionaires have?

MAGA to me is a decentralized movement sprearheaded by Trump PR train. It does not hold real grip of power in the GOP. Trump will have power over the GOP if he wins, which I do not think he will. Donors, what few the GOP have, work pretty well with Dem donors and institutions which is why you see Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell types act like they do. Money talks.
-What is the greatest potential flashpoint you see right now? Even if it's in the realm on "unlikely".

Without a doubt a flare up of Iran and Saudi Arabia where missiles, naval and Air Force assets are used vs one another, US would be drawn in and oil prices would spike to $300+

-Where do you think the market goes in 2025

Not good places. I see a deep recession accelerated by Yellen’s actions to pump the markets. She will be gone after November and likely Brainard steps in to continue MMT.

-America is incredibly divided right now. Is there any hope or reason to believe that America could mostly unite again so all the stupid civil war narratives can go away? Sorry, I don't have very intelligent questions to ask tonight.

We are not divided as we were in the past. We had a civil war, real race riots… 60s and even 1800s were much worse but you are seeing very amplified version of it due to technology and weaponization of social Media

-Why oh why did Trump go with Vance instead of casting a wider net?

His sons pushed for Vance. This was done to secure “Silicon Valley money” for the election and likely personal investments later. This was an error however Harris one-upped Trump by selecting a worse candidate.

-Why does it feel like China has completely disappeared from the news cycle, and is it something to be concerned about?

Their disappearance is largely due to its economic situation and survival. They make noise when they want to be heard and right now they dont want to be in the spotlight when many things are going wrong internally.

-What role do you think Israel plays in keeping the Middle East, and especially Islam, focused on it instead of the greater Western world? How much does this unspoken result play into Western support for Israel?

A lot, but people always need a scapegoat/enemy, so regardless of if Israel existed, the next candidate would be up for targeting. This is not solely on Islam, this is a repetitive thing shown throughout history.

-Electoral breakdown. Who’s going to win what swing states and why?

Lets just keep to just 5 states: Georgia, AZ, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Michigan is lost for Trump. Registered voters favor Dems significantly. Pennsylvania is run by Shapiro and likely has worked to solidify that. AZ goes to Trump(immigration problem is key here). Georgia likely goes to Trump, too many covid refugees moved there to offset the Black vote in Atlanta. As i have said this boils down to Wisconsin. Whoever wins it will win the election. I think Harris is favored.
Read 4 tweets
Live Monitor Profile picture
Feb 5, 2023
The U.S. Treasury plans to sell $105 billion of Treasuries this week (Feb 6th) & could impact the economy and markets. My view is that the Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, is dangerously incompetent in her handling of the Treasury's finances and our contacts
within the Fed say Powell wants the data to be inflationary to get Yellen and the White House off his back. Yellen is said to be offsetting the Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT) by issuing short-dated bills and Treasury General Account (TGA) and i believe this is causing a
liquidity-driven inflation problem. We know that Powell is handcuffed and can't raise Fed funds rates to 7% as it could cause a crisis that would mean he has to cut rates and re-launch inflation, with a high chance of repeating the 1970s. Issuing 10s and 30s bonds at current
Read 4 tweets
Live Monitor Profile picture
Jan 24, 2023
Let me see if I got this right… Biden, @SecBlinken and cohorts of liberal morons push a false Trump-Russia story who the FBI, ran by Comey who is a liar, had agent Charles McGonigal investigating the claims all the while he was taking bribes from Albania, likely Lulzim Basha,
who he himself was caught taking $500,000 of Russian funding. So what does our dipshit State Dept do? Well they have our ambassador to Albania @USAmbAlbania & Gabriel Escobar parade Basha around the Balkans & US trying to promote him & bash Sali Berisha because they realized
how bad they screwed up and are trying to protect the socialist govt in Albania now from narco trafficking rumors on top of aiding Russian funded politicians who corrupted FBI agents.

Defund the State Dept.

🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
Read 4 tweets
Live Monitor Profile picture
Jan 21, 2023
You have to argue with ChatGTP and point out inconsistencies and reword questions on a topic to finally get them to agree their green polices are stupid. Image
Now i had to correct its responses to climate change and renewable energy lol Image
Lol I’m correct again… Albert 3 - ChatGTP 0 Image
Read 7 tweets
Live Monitor Profile picture
Jan 21, 2023
The Federal Reserve has certain emergency powers that allow it to conduct business outside of its normal mandate in order to stabilize the financial system and promote economic growth during periods of crisis. These powers are outlined in Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act,
which was added during the Great Depression.
Under this section, the Federal Reserve can lend to non-depository institutions, such as companies and municipalities, in "unusual and exigent circumstances." This lending is done through the so-called "discount window," which is the
primary source of funding for banks during times of stress.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve also has the authority to conduct open market operations, which involve the buying and selling of government securities, as well as other financial instruments, to stabilize financial
Read 4 tweets
Live Monitor Profile picture
Dec 1, 2022
Ok…

I think most geopolitical guys are full of shit and have next to no access to leaders globally. Papic, Bremmer and Zeihan top my list of worthless.

99% Financial guys on twitter are trying to sell services/newsletters to retail saying whatever stupid shit is trending.
Crypto losers calling for $1m btc should be put in jail and beaten daily.

Most journalists are paid propaganda agents for liberal elite in wall st.

Most of Congress are worthless grifters.

Too many GOP politicians still bang escorts.

Too many Dems are Chinese stooges. HUAC?
COVID vaccines don’t work at all.

Lockdown advocates should be out in jail for 15 days to “flatten the curve”.

Doctors that pushed this nonsense should have licenses revoked.

I hate the Dutch.

Swedes are weak which is shameful from its Viking roots.

EV fans are morons.
Read 16 tweets

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