When dealing with a politically driven economy/market...relationships to leadership, a company’s locations and # of employees are key to determining the likelihood of government backstop support & your place in line for stimulus packages.

Tenneco $TEN is as good of an example
as you get today. Icahn has been playing his activist investor shtick around Wall Street for more than 50 years and made himself a fortune. His relationship with Trump is very public, his activist play on Tenneco is well documented & Tenneco occupies key locations in the Midwest.
A formidable voting block tied to the auto industry that the Trump administration is currently working on a stimulus package to boost the entire sector. Trump needs to seal up Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Tenneco, just like YRC Worldwide, has extensive workers with
families amounting to significant votes.

I expect a package at some point before the election directed towards the auto sector and a company like Tenneco will be greatly benefited.

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More from @amlivemon

26 Aug
Stabilization, Inflation, and Rotation

What in the world is driving this market? Answers across Twitter have become complex monetary and fiscal theories with fancy charts and academic writings flying around. But what if the answer is much more simple than people assume?
What if, theoretically, the Fed/Treasury had called upon the biggest market makers & directed them to buy equities to manipulate the market into a artificial recovery? This strategy is not new. This was done in 1907 & 1987(Buffett & Goldman Sachs were involved previously)
Crisis situations will need crisis solutions, whether political or economic, the system circles the wagons to protect itself. Most of the equities in this “theory” would be distributed across market makers however you could “theoretically” see such action by a fund with an
Read 12 tweets
13 Aug
November 2020 Election Update

Key Issues to note:

Corn/Ethanol Politics
Swap line cutbacks, market contraction mid September?
Mail-in and Early voting begin in September(PA & MI)
Stimulus 2.0 fight going into mid September
Haley to the Trump poll rescue?
Census fight?
The looming August-September stimulus package will be negotiated between Pelosi and McConnell to place both political parties in their election narrative positions as September voting begins. House Dems want to extend the $600 a week unemployment benefit as the GOP is looking to
cut it to $200-$400 as it pushes for businesses reopening and a surge in rehiring laid off workers. Primary issues however, will be small business lending program extension and agriculture political issues yet unresolved.

To pass a sweeping stimulus package of $2-2.5 trillion,
Read 9 tweets
14 Mar
No. It doesn’t, and I’ll tell you why.

Italy has a very larger number of Chinese workers specifically from an area called Wenzhou. @eshow1969 noted virus rates skyrocketing there in February. Wenzhounese make up a significant number of European businesses of Chinese diaspora 1/
This diaspora has been in China for New Year and had retuned at the height of the Coronavirus infection rates. They went back to work in Veneto, Lombardy and Prato, making Italian rates increase 100x that of normal transmission figures globally.2/
Take increased Coronavirus infections with traditional flu season and add a very poor healthcare system and you get what you see in Italy. Official rates for the virus only noted 3 deaths in patients with no other pathologies. 3. Not 300, not 3000. 3.
Read 7 tweets
7 Jan
Let me try to translate my commentary for fintwit about why Dragonbear(China-Russia) has no chance in the foreseeable future to dethrone US and Dollar.

Imagine the US-China competition was the global automobile market pitting the US as Daimler vs China as Tesla. Lets talk money:
Tesla's market cap is ~50% larger than that of Daimler or BMW. BMW has sold ~2.4mln vehicles, Daimler ~2.3mln Mercedes-Benz vehicles while Tesla delivered 367,500 vehicles total in all of 2019. How? DEBT. Artificial valuations using debt and fancy production #'s to boost value.
Sound familiar? China hoards Dollars to credit multiple it out to its corporations doing nearly the exact same thing. China's debt/GDP ratio is about 500% high & accelerating up to point that servicing $ debt becomes impossible. Its started to affect its defense building with
Read 9 tweets
11 Jul 19
Eurodollars are dollar-denominated deposit liabilities of banks outside the United States. Even though estimates of the size of the Eurodollar market exceed $7 trillion, these instruments are virtually unregulated by the Fed.
In 2008, the height of the financial crisis, the biggest beneficiaries of the Federal Reserve’s emergency loans were not American banks but European ones. The Federal Reserve reopened these $-liquidity swap lines during the EU crisis, loaning foreign institutions an additional $
Despite their prevalence, Eurodollars is the least understood financial instrument. In 1969, the preeminent economist Milton Friedman wrote that Eurodollars were “the latest example of the mystifying quality of money creation to even the most sophisticated bankers”
Read 12 tweets
9 Jul 19
The interconnectedness of economics & politics has never been greater, specifically when observing CB policies and political nominations to each leadership position. (Lagarde) These politicized nominations are meant to continue the flow of money to politically advantageous areas
The Fed, for all its perceived insight has no real control over the global Eurodollar credit multiplier system. It acts as a reactionary bailout mechanism for bad actors and practices specifically in Europe.
Savvy banks in the EU has adopted asymmetrical leverage techniques against the US economic Goliath by loaning to US municipalities knowing that failure would adversely affect US politicians. You need look no further than Belgian bank Dexia, who has been a leader in Fed bailouts
Read 7 tweets

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