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Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ Profile picture
@CalibreObscura
Sep 14, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Footage of a 7x ATGM strike by HRE in Ghazawiya/Xzewiyê (N. Aleppo).

Whilst dramatic (Esssentially ripple firing ATGM), the hits only caused a few injuries among TSK/HRE, w/ apparently rather loose target selection by the HRE insurgents behind the lines.

[Pt. 1]
This approach is markedly different from PKK ATGM use against TSK in Iraq/Turkey, and even from typical HRE usage patterns. The use of potent rather potent (& expensive) 9K115-2 Metis-M1 indicate fresh supply, likely from the regime, a key HRE materiel benefactor.

[Pt 2]
Metis pattern ATGM use by HRE isn't super rare, but previously 9K111/M113 were the ATGM of choice. The Metis-M has been in regime hands for yrs & is v. portable, & latest version has a greatly increased range (2km), making it rather attactive for HRE.

What's of interest to me is the use of massed ATGM in a role that isn't so far off arty/mortar fire- indeed, those on the ground thought the explosions were the former. Tactic is not unknown & regime ATGM crews are known to expend high quantities, but is new-ish for HRE.

[END]

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More from @CalibreObscura

Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ Profile picture
Aug 10
One aspect that many miss RE:AA FPV UAV is that these are a reaction to a lack of MANPADS, particularly those not from the Cold War.

Sure FPV can work, but if every AFU unit had plenty of LMM or Starstreak, esp. w/ extended range, the need would be met much more efficiently.
The innovation shown in 🇺🇦 is excellent, lessons learned should be diffused into other allied militaries, but we shouldn't fetishize systems that have developed because of specific local conditions. Some of the situation now is because the AFU has not been efficiently resourced.
Ofc, as the drones develop, they will become more and more like MANPADS. The cost will rise, especially as features such as passive radar/ELINT targeting become more common than they already are.

I am not bashing what Ukrainians are doing, I'm just pointing out the reality.
Read 9 tweets
Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ Profile picture
Mar 22
According to some local reports & the ISIS claim, the attackers withdrew successfully. They will have communicated with IS-K/Central, poss. including videos/images of them carrying out the massacre.

They are still at large. This is exactly what security forces don't want.
Usually they don't manage. But if your security forces don't arrive for an hour, this can happen. So they can sleep, rearm, and do it again. Inghimasi don't expect to survive, so for them this is a bonus.
When they kill these guys, they will find a phone with either SMS, WhatsApp, Telegram or maybe Viber msgs to an account with a central asian or Afghan number. That account will have been assisting, directing & encouraging them live. Non-0 chance US SIGINT can see said messages.
Read 4 tweets
Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ Profile picture
Mar 22
The US Intel was right. Again.
Your reminder btw, because I know people will be doing it, deaths of civilians is never, ever to be celebrated. I hope the vermin who carried this out are slotted with all rapidity
From the video: At least 5 men with AKs, probably 74s. Can't see PBIED, although given IS-K to be expected. This is worse case, nightmare scenario stuff that Western forced worry about and train for constantly.

No, not doing any ID, it's not healthy for the mind and soul
Read 5 tweets
Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ Profile picture
Nov 3, 2023
Random thoughts on the al Qassam footage from the IDF ground incursion in no particular order.

Firstly- Clear that the en mass production of the "Yassin" PG-7VR copy was a very sensible decision. This was the most achievable way for them for them to create a potent anti....
armour weapon, with good penetrative capabilities against IDF armour. Even more sensible was the adoption of the main warhead of the Yassin (Essentially the same as a PG-7L) as a static charge IED. That way, the same production line(s) could be efficiently used to boost..
..al Qassam et al anti-armour capabilities in a simple to use package. So far, this seems to have been effective, although the daring IED-placing rambo probably wasted his actions, as the directional charge wouldn't have gone in the right...direction.

Anyway, next.
Read 14 tweets
Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ Profile picture
Oct 25, 2023
I'm going to write a few things here before I go.

This is not *why* I am leaving all of this, but rather just some notes to whoever might find them useful.
Why does someone do the stuff I have? Why does someone write thousands of words and spend so many hours?

It's because yes, you enjoy it, but it makes you feel like you are making a positive difference. But then it starts feeling like a job, a job that gives you no earnings.
Then you find that dozens, if not hundreds, of organisations, companies, large (evidently revenue earning) accounts, YouTubers etc, are very, very happy to use your expertise and your time, and *will not* compensate you for it. Sometimes you get credit, which is nice.
Read 7 tweets
Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ Profile picture
May 8, 2023
Something I didn't say in November that I think now- this stuff has a deeply personal tinge. The Ukrainians are targeting people because they see them as guilty of assisting in their (attempted) genocide. This is Mossad in the 60s, and they are only just starting.
Sensible people in European security circles should be thinking about how to manage and mitigate a service absolutely willing to go kinetic on their soil in five or ten years when some of the Russian men who were Bucha or Mariupol manage to get to Germany etc
So much analysis of this misses the personal factor.

Why wouldn't you target the people who wanted to turn you into a literal footnote of history?
Read 6 tweets

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