The $NKLA response is typical, but just so poor. Seriously, these crisis communication firms are stealing their clients’ money. First mistake is to play the ad hominem card - and hard by repeatedly saying “manipulation”. The big problem is company / Milton credibility... 1/
But the “rebuttals” are countering statements of fact (e.g., was not a $NKLA inverter) with safe harbor protected fluff (working hard on own inverters). Effectively, this release confirms the statements of FACT. It’s taking issue w/ @HindenburgRes OPINIONS from those facts... 2/
So repeatedly accusing @HindenburgRes of manipulation while confirming facts and arguing opinions is really discrediting of $NKLA. In my experience, investors see through this. So net-net company still has same credibility issue. Esp when NKLA is parsing language re “in motion”3/
Also going ad hominem just fires up the short seller more - every time. How should company have responded? Focus on milestones achieved since these events, announce concrete steps to improve transparency, show contrition, & then say @HindenburgRes has drawn wrong conclusions
By the way, MW / I have no position in NKLA & have never had one. For those of you strapping on your tinfoil hats thinking I’m trying to “hit” the stock to make money, go ahead and take them off. I’m an activist short seller expressing an opinion on these events - nothing more.
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MW is short $APP. ~52% of e-com is retargeting. Incrementality only ~25%-35%. APP misappropriates user data from 3P platforms. It uses 3P data as black edge in auctions. Q1 E-com churn seems ~23%. APP is easily copied if not deplatformed muddywatersresearch.com/research/2025/…
Traffic for 37m users indicates ~52% of $APP e-com sales are retargeting. We estimate only ~25% to ~35% of sales are incremental. CEO claims e-com incrementality near 100%. We believe e-com business will never take off muddywatersresearch.com/research/2025/…
Supporting our view e-com business will never take off, we observed 776 $APP e-com clients in Q1 and saw ~23% churn. We suspect e-com clients are understanding that APP is in reality low ROAS muddywatersresearch.com/research/2025/…
MW is short $FTAI bc we think FTAI misleads by shifting profits from Leasing to MRO, misrepresenting whole engine sales as 3 modules & channel stuffing at YE23 muddywatersresearch.com/research/2025/…
We estimate ~80% of FY24 modules are really whole engine sales counted as 3 modules each. We engaged a frmr snr exec to canvass $FTAI counterparties and assess the number of whole engines sold muddywatersresearch.com/research/2025/…
$FTAI EBITDA margins in excess of its peers bc hundreds of millions are incurred by Leasing—not MRO. ~70% of Aerospace Products COGS originated in Leasing before being transferred to Inventory muddywatersresearch.com/research/2025/…
MW is short $KDNY. We believe its lead drug, atrasentan, will never get FDA approval. Trial data have shown it's a) inefficacious and b) increases cardiac and mortality risks. AbbVie and KDNY have manipulated and misrepresented trial data to conceal muddywatersresearch.com/research/kdny/…
Atrasentan shows no sign of renal repair. Trial data show in our view $KDNY biomarker effects are hemodynamic effect (dilution), which lowered UACR. Post treatment, UACR converged with placebo. Systolic BP converged during treatment. Anemia stat sig higher muddywatersresearch.com/research/kdny/…
AbbVie and now $KDNY obscure the trial data by a) distorting time periods on charts, b) using a composite endpoint that combines negative and positive outcomes, and c) cherry picking data to give the impressions of efficacy and safety muddywatersresearch.com/research/kdny/…
In June 2018, MW issued a report on $TAL “A Real Business With Fake Financials.” In June 2020, we reported on $GOTU concluding it’s a fake business w/ fake financials. What we see today isn’t directly a result of the fraud, but it is indirectly a result. 1/
The system that allows such frauds to persist and flourish is a highly corrupt system run by a highly corrupt autocratic government. A government that can’t be trusted - especially by foreigners who thought they were *beneficiaries* of this system. You were wrong. 2/
That is narcissism typical of western investors in China. It was clear once the CCP made the choice in 2012 to protect the frauds (e.g., through protecting auditors from SEC) that foreign capital was allowed to receive returns at the pleasure of the CCP, but that when push came…
MW is short $LMND bc it has an egregious security vulnerability & utterly failed to secure customer PII. Customer PII has actually been indexed by Google and other search engines. Many customer accounts can be accessed without any authentication at all! muddywatersresearch.com/research/lmnd/…
$LMND should immediately take its site, API, and app offline to remediate. Breach seemingly existed since 7/2020, LMND must investigate scope of breach & inform all potentially affected customers. We think it’s likely a breach has occurred. muddywatersresearch.com/research/lmnd/…
$LMND security vuln is so obvious we *accidentally* discovered it during fundamental research & can be detected by industry standard app costing $400 / year. LMND could be liable under GDPR, NY fin service regs & CA Consumer Privacy Act muddywatersresearch.com/research/lmnd/…
MW is short $XL bc it's middle of the fairway SPAC garbage. The real "green" tech is duping investors and customers through exaggerations, half truths, and mistruths. Claimed backlog is greatly exaggerated, purported customers haven't ordered in years. muddywatersresearch.com/research/xl/mw…
Former $XL salespeople tell of being forced to exaggerate pipelines, esp when the board was going to meet. "A minimum of four times a year [manager] would exaggerate my pipeline substantially to report to the board." muddywatersresearch.com/research/xl/mw…
Customer ROIs actually r negative. Former $XL employee describes a customer gain as "a blatant lie". 18 of 33 customers featured in investor deck reportedly r inactive. Reorder rate only ~10%. Tod Hynes y'day deflected @jimcramer customer question on this. muddywatersresearch.com/research/xl/mw…