MW is short $ENSG. We believe Ensign rents Administrator licenses at est. ~20% of its SNFs to deceive CMS & the states. We estimate compliance alone cuts 2027 EBIT ~35% vs consensus & slows growth from ~11% to ~2%. FCA exposure possibly in Billions of $. Report link follows
How it works: an unlicensed "Ops Manager" runs the SNF; a "Paper Administrator" paid ~$2K/mo + $600/visit shows for inspections. Ex $ENSG Admin: "State just showed up... they put on a show of 'I'm the Administrator.'" muddywatersresearch.com/research/2026/…

MW is short $APP. ~52% of e-com is retargeting. Incrementality only ~25%-35%. APP misappropriates user data from 3P platforms. It uses 3P data as black edge in auctions. Q1 E-com churn seems ~23%. APP is easily copied if not deplatformed muddywatersresearch.com/research/2025/… Traffic for 37m users indicates ~52% of $APP e-com sales are retargeting. We estimate only ~25% to ~35% of sales are incremental. CEO claims e-com incrementality near 100%. We believe e-com business will never take off muddywatersresearch.com/research/2025/…

MW is short $FTAI bc we think FTAI misleads by shifting profits from Leasing to MRO, misrepresenting whole engine sales as 3 modules & channel stuffing at YE23 muddywatersresearch.com/research/2025/… We estimate ~80% of FY24 modules are really whole engine sales counted as 3 modules each. We engaged a frmr snr exec to canvass $FTAI counterparties and assess the number of whole engines sold muddywatersresearch.com/research/2025/…

MW is short $KDNY. We believe its lead drug, atrasentan, will never get FDA approval. Trial data have shown it's a) inefficacious and b) increases cardiac and mortality risks. AbbVie and KDNY have manipulated and misrepresented trial data to conceal muddywatersresearch.com/research/kdny/… Atrasentan shows no sign of renal repair. Trial data show in our view $KDNY biomarker effects are hemodynamic effect (dilution), which lowered UACR. Post treatment, UACR converged with placebo. Systolic BP converged during treatment. Anemia stat sig higher muddywatersresearch.com/research/kdny/…

In June 2018, MW issued a report on $TAL “A Real Business With Fake Financials.” In June 2020, we reported on $GOTU concluding it’s a fake business w/ fake financials. What we see today isn’t directly a result of the fraud, but it is indirectly a result. 1/ The system that allows such frauds to persist and flourish is a highly corrupt system run by a highly corrupt autocratic government. A government that can’t be trusted - especially by foreigners who thought they were *beneficiaries* of this system. You were wrong. 2/

MW is short $LMND bc it has an egregious security vulnerability & utterly failed to secure customer PII. Customer PII has actually been indexed by Google and other search engines. Many customer accounts can be accessed without any authentication at all! muddywatersresearch.com/research/lmnd/… $LMND should immediately take its site, API, and app offline to remediate. Breach seemingly existed since 7/2020, LMND must investigate scope of breach & inform all potentially affected customers. We think it’s likely a breach has occurred. muddywatersresearch.com/research/lmnd/…

MW is short $XL bc it's middle of the fairway SPAC garbage. The real "green" tech is duping investors and customers through exaggerations, half truths, and mistruths. Claimed backlog is greatly exaggerated, purported customers haven't ordered in years. muddywatersresearch.com/research/xl/mw… Former $XL salespeople tell of being forced to exaggerate pipelines, esp when the board was going to meet. "A minimum of four times a year [manager] would exaggerate my pipeline substantially to report to the board." muddywatersresearch.com/research/xl/mw…

I'm seeing a lot of people decry de-platforming WSB, Trump, etc. Personally, I have mixed feelings on this & there are no clear answers. First, this isn't a 1st Amendment issue. Public property must permit speech, subject to reasonable time, manner, and place restrictions. 1/ However, businesses obviously don't need to allow demonstrators. A privately-owned business shutting down speakers or categories of speech is consistent with THEIR 1st Amendment rights. Then the response becomes "These platforms are too powerful". Yes, BUT... 2/

The $NKLA response is typical, but just so poor. Seriously, these crisis communication firms are stealing their clients’ money. First mistake is to play the ad hominem card - and hard by repeatedly saying “manipulation”. The big problem is company / Milton credibility... 1/ But the “rebuttals” are countering statements of fact (e.g., was not a $NKLA inverter) with safe harbor protected fluff (working hard on own inverters). Effectively, this release confirms the statements of FACT. It’s taking issue w/ @HindenburgRes OPINIONS from those facts... 2/

MW is short $INO. Stock ramped on hype around Covid vaccine. A recent court decision against INO makes it clear that INO lacks manufacturing capacity to get remotely near purported goal of 1 mm doses in ‘20 & 100 mm in ’21 1/ drive.google.com/file/d/1K4wnKD… $INO sued its primary supplier, VGXI, for a temp injunction to force transfer of manufacturing technology to ~10 manufacturers. VGXI refuses to transfer the technology. Absent transfer, capacity doesn't exist. Injunction denied. 2/ drive.google.com/file/d/1izYYO5… drive.google.com/file/d/167XCaC…

$BUR is due to hold a call with bondholders in an hour. Management should answer these 7 questions: 1) Where did $BUR mark Petersen as of June 30, 2019?