1/ The Brookings #GlobalChina initiative is rolling out its latest round of research, this one on China’s efforts to adapt global governance to suit its aims. The following thread provides a brief summary of the research findings. brook.gs/2RfI5Gu
2/ Although China traditionally focused on the U.N.’s development activities, Beijing now flexes its muscles in the heart of the U.N. — its peace and security work. Reflections and analysis from Jeffrey Feltman via our #GlobalChina project: brook.gs/2GeFAC7#UNGA75
3/ At times, Beijing has promoted women’s equality; at others, it has undermined civil society and human rights defenders, critical actors for advancing gender equality. @DariusLongarino explores the record: brook.gs/2Z27iIO#GlobalChina
5/ The dangers of failing to revive climate cooperation between the U.S. and China are “unacceptably high,” writes @tsterndc via our latest #GlobalChina installment: brook.gs/3hVEZn3
6/ China is now the center of gravity for global energy markets. Will its demand continue to grow? How will China’s energy system respond to the challenges of climate change and local pollution? @samanthaenergy explains: brook.gs/3i3dveO#GlobalChina
7/ The trajectory of climate change depends on decisions about the infrastructure that Chinese entities fund abroad — decisions that result not from fiats in Beijing but from complex debates in China and beyond. New from @jeff_ball: brook.gs/2YGTuU6#GlobalChina
8/ Much of Washington’s concern with China’s role in the global economy has to do with China’s only partial integration into global institutions, contends @davidrdollar via our #GlobalChina project. Learn what can be done: brook.gs/30WCquT
9/ Taking a page from America’s playbook, China is seeking to build a multilayered network of security institutions, partnerships, and cooperative activities that enhance its influence in Asia, writes @lindseywford: brook.gs/2DQj5me#GlobalChina
10/ Beijing is engaging more with international institutions. Is this a gain for the global human rights system? No, writes @SophieHRW in an analysis via our #GlobalChina project: brook.gs/3k5Lgx8
12/ While Beijing may dislike some aspects of U.N. peacekeeping, it appears to see greater strategic advantage in cooperating with the U.S. and other Western powers in this field, @RichardGowan1 argues. brook.gs/3mccXGr#GlobalChina
13/ China has emerged as a truly global actor, impacting every region and every major issue area. For an overview of the entire #GlobalChina project, check out: brook.gs/2l2vLNo
1/ The Chicago Council published new findings on American attitudes toward China and US-China relations. The results are notable, showing that America's broader social and political divisions are now also being reflected in sentiment toward China. (🧵). globalaffairs.org/research/publi…
2/ The findings show the bipartisan consensus (on China) "no longer seems to hold among the American public. Republicans and Democrats now hold distinctly different views on a range of China-related questions. Republicans are more confident in US power...Democrats less so."
3/ Republicans "favor decoupling from China, and favor containment over cooperation. By contrast, Democrats don’t see China as a top threat, oppose decoupling, and favor cooperation over containment, especially on issues of common concern like arms control and climate change."
1/ There is truth in the arguments that Bessent, Greer, Hassett and others are making. China's economy is unbalanced and export dependent. Deflation and debt are major challenges for Beijing. These issues are not going to compel Chinese capitulation, though. Here's why (🧵).
2/ China's leaders are confident in their negotiating position. PRC overall exports are up, they're on track to hit 5% growth target, and they have coalesced around a 5-year plan. They believe they're closer to parity with US and that rare earths provide them powerful leverage.
3/ As Beijing looks at US, it sees a country divided, a government shut down, a leadership that wants to avoid market disruptions, and an economy heavily reliant on its AI sector. Rightly or not, they judge Trump wants to avoid escalation and will make concessions to avoid it.
1/ I think this thread by @fengchucheng captures the logic and motive for Beijing's approach to the latest spike in US-China trade war escalation. Both sides are playing a high-stakes game. It's not entirely clear that both sides are playing the same game, though. (short 🧵)
2/ Both sides blame the other for breaking their tacit understanding against escalatory actions before the two leaders meet. A key question is whether both sides are taking actions now to generate leverage for bilateral negotiations. I think the verdict is out.
3/ China's Ministry of Commerce was direct in its explanation for its global rare earths export control decision. Their message to the US seemed to boil down to, "If you want to talk, let's talk. If you want to fight, let's fight." mofcom.gov.cn/xwfb/xwfyrth/a…
1/ On the surface, there has been a fair amount of US-China activity and market signaling, but under the surface, the mega-trend of the relationship is that both countries are pursuing strategies to reduce dependence and insulate themselves from each other. (short 🧵)
2/ China's leaders believe they are making progress in reducing dependence on US and West and finding ways to weaponize chokepoints for their own advantage. China's exports to US as percentage of overall exports have been shrinking and now are below 15%.
3/ Xi has made self-reliance a central feature of his national agenda. China's success in weaponizing rare earths and magnets earlier this year to compel Trump to retreat on trade war may have led PRC to grow overconfident in its leverage in relationship.
1/ Chinese officials seem to be taking a fairly measured approach to results of the US-China trade talks in Geneva this past weekend, but Chinese state media and influential commentators appear to be taking more of a victory lap. They feel China's "resolute stance" worked. (🧵).
2/ Beijing's theory of the case was that US political feedback loop would be faster and stronger than in China. Beijing judged time and patience were to their advantage, even as they were feeling economic pain themselves. They held firm in expectation that Trump would pull back.
3/ Beijing sought to present itself globally as being strong enough to stand up to a bully to shield others from being harmed. This was the theme of PRC MFA's widely circulated video. PRC leaders sought to portray themselves internationally as principled and Trump as reckless.
1/ I've seen a wave of videos and memes from China on America's mounting challenges under Trump, some coming from Chinese officials. I understand the blend of anger, nationalism, and schadenfreude that is animating these efforts, but I would counsel a bit of caution (🧵).
2/ I recognize the self-harm and global volatility Trump's trade war is causing. The loss of confidence resulting from Trump's actions has vaporized trillions of dollars in market value, will push up inflation and unemployment, and could tip US economy toward recession.
3/ I understand why Chinese officials want to spotlight the costs that Trump's trade war is creating in the US. I would caution, though, that few things would be more poisonous for perceptions of China in US than an appearance of efforts to manipulate US public opinion.