1/ America's partners and adversaries are closely following the House of Representatives decision not to act on the $95 foreign aid bill, which includes $5B to support Taiwan. It must feel like Christmas came early this year for China's leaders. Here's why (short 🧵): 2/ Taiwan's voters just chose William Lai as president-elect. During the campaign, Lai argued that closer US-Taiwan relationship is essential for Taiwan's security. Beijing chafes at closer US-Taiwan ties and would prefer for Taiwan to refocus on its relationship with the PRC.

1/ Whether you are a Cold War historian or a casual observer of the news, I commend this written debate to you. In a series of crisp exchanges, four leading experts make their case for whether the US and China are in a cold war. (Short thread) brookings.edu/articles/shoul… 2/ @patricia_m_kim observes that China's growth and prosperity hangs on its continued engagement with the outside world. She challenges the notion that China's leaders view the US as an existential threat and urges greater precision in textual analysis of PRC leaders' speeches.

1/ It has been striking to observe the amount of Kremlinology that has gone into decoding the protocol arrangements for @SecBlinken's visit to Beijing, and also how much of it has lacked context or accuracy. nytimes.com/2023/06/20/wor… 2/ At the start of the visit, the operative question was whether Blinken would meet with President Xi. Then, when Blinken met Xi, the focus shifted toward the room layout for the meeting with Xi, the lack of red carpet on the airport tarmac for Blinken's arrival, etc.

1/ Bilahari has delivered a thoughtful and thought-provoking essay on how ASEAN navigates great power rivalry and lessons that could be applied to the Middle East. His big idea - countries need to learn to simultaneously hedge, balance, and bandwagon. jstribune.com/kausikan-south… 2/ Unfortunately, though, Bilahari misrepresented my views, suggesting I have a "declinist" view of American competitiveness in the region. He overlooked my conclusion, "The United States and its partners still have a winning hand to play but they need to embrace competition."

1/ Given President Biden's statement on Taiwan yesterday, there seems to be interest today in what the "one-China policy" is, how it differs from China's "one-China principle," and why the distinction matters. In that spirit, here are a few useful resources (short thread). 2/ Richard Bush wrote this useful primer at the start of the Trump presidency: A One-China policy primer brookings.edu/research/a-one… via @BrookingsInst

1/ I am glad to see this narrative has been cleaned up. Public suggestions that US would unilaterally destroy TSMC in event of PRC invasion are unwise and unhelpful. Taiwan's elected leaders are responsible for protecting their people's interests... 🧵 taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4837391 2/ Public suggestions US would unilaterally destroy TSMC play into Beijing's narrative that US sees Taiwan as a strategic pawn, not as a genuine partner. Falling into this trap is ill-informed and shortsighted. There are better ways for US to identify its interests re: Taiwan.

1/ A few quick reflections on diplomacy around the Chinese spy balloon incident:

The US has done a good job raising intl awareness of the systemic nature of PRC balloon operations around the world and building support for the principle of protecting sovereign airspace. (thread) 2/ The US Government has been persistent in keeping open direct private channels of communication with Beijing, both to register the strength of US objections and to clarify the intentions of its actions and statements.

1/ Given the news of @SecBlinken's postponement of his trip to Beijing due to the PRC's spy satellite violating US airspace, a question now turns to what would be needed from Beijing in order to justify turning planning for the visit back on. A few quick thoughts -(short thread). 2/ The timing and audacity of this operation by China is stunning in its shortsightedness. PRC leaders wanted to use Blinken's visit to demonstrate directional progress toward stabilization of US-China ties. They still do. The US has a bit of leverage. How should it use it?

1/ I do not begrudge military leaders working internally to build urgency to bolster deterrence in Taiwan Strait. That is their contribution to US national strategy. I do have qualms about a deeper issue of undisciplined public messaging, though. Thread.
washingtonpost.com/national-secur… 2/ General Minihan's "gut" is in a different place than CJCS Milley, Secretary Austin, or President Biden. Biden said publicly at the G-20, "I do not think there’s any imminent attempt on the part of China to invade Taiwan." whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…

1/ Thank you @Scholars_Stage for engaging so thoughtfully with Jude Blanchette's and my recent piece. Part of our motivation in writing the piece was to spur exactly this kind of discussion. I will offer a few quick responses to your critique. These are mine alone...(Thread)

https://twitter.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1608553208980570112

2/ Our piece centered on America's interests and how best to protect them. It was not an assertion that the US controls events in the Taiwan Strait. We seem to agree that the goal of US policy is to preserve peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.

1/ As someone who has organized events and spoken publicly about the corrosive effects of anti-Asian racism on America's national fabric and national competitiveness, this news is not troubling to me. Short thread...
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @bpolitics 2/ It is not unreasonable to request that inbound travelers demonstrate they do not have COVID. Until fairly recently, everyone entering the US (including American citizens) had to do so. China similarly will require inbound travelers to provide proof upon entry.

1/ I'm unpersuaded Beijing is launching any charm offensive. It is not altering policy positions or increasing incentives to others. Xi is returning to the world stage after several years at home for COVID control and consolidation of power. (short thread) washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/… 2/ China's leaders are looking for opportunities to strengthen their position in competition with US and others. They would like key countries to respect their "core interests" and to refrain from joining coalitional efforts to challenge China's rise.

1/ There are times when the pendulum of national power swings decisively. The collapse of the Soviet Union would be the clearest example. As an analytic matter, I'm skeptical that China is experiencing - or soon will - a similarly dramatic pendulum swing. (brief thread)... 2/ I have detected hopefulness among some pundits that China has crossed Rubicon and everything will be downhill for them from here, e.g., China's power has peaked, the Party Congress exposed the CCP's brutality, China's growth model is exhausted, Xi is becoming isolated, etc.

1/ The Biden administration's announcement last Friday of new export controls on semiconductor chips and tools to China was a significant event and a calculated gamble. It reflected a judgment that US leverage is a depreciating asset and that bold action is needed now. (Thread) 2/ The new rules reflect the administration's view that certain civilian technologies have multiplier effects, and that China has used commercially available tech to modernize its military, pursue strategic economic dominance in key sectors, and commit human rights abuses.

1/ Against the backdrop of @SpeakerPelosi's arrival in Taipei, there are several events in motion. Proximately, Beijing appears to have begun responding through economic measures against Taiwan. There also are reports of cyber operations directed against Taiwan. (Thread). 2/ Importantly, the PRC response will not be measurable in the moment, but will be counted by an accumulation of actions over period of time. Beijing will seek to show TW people that there are risks and consequences for relying on US instead of working with Beijing.

1/ I expect @SpeakerPelosi will proceed with reported plans to visit Taiwan in August. Nobody can credibly argue Pelosi is soft in the face of PRC pressure. She has a long and clear record on China. (Thread) 2/ That said, there has been debate in Washington over Pelosi’s trip. Proponents of her visit argue Taiwan merits US support and Pelosi shouldn't buckle to Beijing's pressure. Skeptics suggest trip carries more risks than benefit.

1/ I've received questions about how the USG should respond to China's lists of diplomatic demands. My suggestion - push the list back across the table, thank them for the effort of organizing their thinking on their priorities...(thread)
politi.co/3PulDFZ via @politico 2/ …underscore that major powers don't communicate with each other through lists of demands, and then invite a candid conversation about what matters most to each side and where progress might be possible in addressing each side's respective top objectives and concerns.

1/ @SecBlinken delivered China speech May 26. Chinese media did not give much coverage to speech. Chinese censors blocked its circulation. There was not much discussion of speech inside China. 3 weeks later, China released an official 25,000 word, 80-page rebuttal. Why? A thread. 2/ Chinese counterparts have pointed me to three elements of Blinken's speech that triggered a strong rebuttal: (1) identifying China as primary challenge to international order; (2) calling out Xi Jinping personally; (3) US declaring intent to "shape the environment around PRC."

1/ The Biden administration has an opportunity at the US-ASEAN Summit to begin puncturing two pernicious narratives about their approach to Asia. The first is that the US is overweight in its focus on security and underweight on SE Asia's top priorities and concerns. (Thread). 2/ Press reports suggest the administration has crafted a summit agenda keyed to ASEAN leaders' priorities, e.g., maritime cooperation, health and pandemic recovery, climate and clean energy, infrastructure, trade capacity-building, educational programs, etc.

1/ Xi Jinping delivered a speech yesterday at the opening of the Boao Forum. It offers insight into some of the key messages the Chinese leadership appears to be trying to drive forward (a short summary analysis):

fmprc.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_66280… 2/ Xi's message to domestic audience: have confidence, China will overcome challenges, don't flinch, “press ahead against all odds.”

His analysis of source of global problems: hegemonism & power politics endangers world peace, bloc confrontations exacerbate security challenges.

1/ Glad to see such productive trans-Atlantic coordination across a range of fronts. Two outcomes that caught my attention from this readout were:

A) The US and EU have solidified their shared posture on China's approach to Ukraine...
europa.eu/!pMQQpC 2/...The US and EU "urge China not to circumvent or undermine sanctions against Russia, and not to provide any form of support for Russia’s aggression." They also call out Chinese amplification of Russian disinformation and urge it to stop.