Paul Abi Nasr Profile picture
Sep 14, 2020 13 tweets 2 min read Read on X
1/ Martin Luther King will excuse me for plagiarizing him, but one has to call upon the great leaders of our history to help when despair starts taking hold.

I have a dream !
2/ I have a dream that one day the rule of law will be an evidence no one dares to challenge, everyone holds dear, and every generation inherits its awe of it from the previous one.

I have a dream today !
3/ I have a dream that no one will bare arms but our valiant army. No one will feel the need to be protected but by them . No one would want to die fighting but side by side with his fellow soldier defending their cherished land.

I have a dream today !
4/ I have a dream of a country free of smuggling and fraud, not only because of the fear of the law but also because my countrymen would be rejecting any aberration benefiting the few and harming the rest.

I have a dream today !
5/ I have a dream of a Federal , Secular and Modern Lebanon , home of a great civilization and birthplace of acceptance and love.

I have a dream today !
6/ I have a dream that one day , belligerent states would come to my country to find common ground and negotiate peace, instead of fighting each other on our lands and using our lives as fodder.

I have a dream today !
7/ I have a dream that serving my country would become a sacrifice and not a reward, but the kind of sacrifice a father and a mother constantly do on behalf of their children

I have a dream today !
8/ I have a dream that one day , Lebanon's researchers would help develop medical solutions at the highest levels and contribute to the world's well being.

I have a dream today !
9/ I have a dream that all the Lebanese would be competing to create the best new startup, the most incredible architectural design and the most enticing painting.

I have a dream today !
10/ I have a dream we would be the book capital of the region with avid thinkers fighting over the latest theory and the best way to explain it.
An oasis of freedom and a sea of ideas.

I have a dream today !
11/ I have a dream that our glorious mountains keep towering over our beautiful valleys, free of pollution and urban scars and home to our history and our future.

I have a dream today!
12/ I have a dream that every young Lebanese feels lucky of belonging to this country , feels confident it will take care of him and feels proud to give it back all he can in gratitude

I have a dream today !
13/ Yes, i may be dreaming but if we stop dreaming we will stop living .
It is up to us to make those dreams come true.
It is up to us to make our country a better place for our kids .
We either rise together to the challenge or let the country and our lives fall into the abyss

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More from @PaulAbiNasr

Jul 19, 2021
Let me put this into perspective:
With EDL averaging 3h/day the average cost of industrial electricity will be 36c/kWh (5.6 in France, 6.7 in Denmark).
Also in comparison the avg EDL cost is 14c/kWh.
You can kiss the "productive economy" goodbye at these rates.
No company can compete with 7 folds the cost of energy. No company in the world is supplied power through diesel based generation.
Result : cost of products will soar, most won't be able to afford them -> companies will fold or move out.
We are talking about 195 000 employees and the only sector everyone is banking on to relaunch the economy.
That's also 3bn in exports and around 9bn in local use which would need to be replaced with imports ( i will only let you imagine the fx rate in that scenario )
Read 9 tweets
May 3, 2021
1/ The cash handout project of the government has been leaked.
In one word : Catastrophic .
It would destroy what remains of the manufacturing sector, barely dent the leakage of FX, effectively return to subsidizing imports and skyrocketing costs.
2/ First let's see how misleading the document is. It wants the reader to believe that the reduction in FX leak is around 4.24bn , but a look at the tables they produce shows the reduction to be 2.8bn (which they can achieve by simply reducing the current subsidies )
3/ It misleads by implying that providing cash handouts in USD would not affect inflation compared to injecting the equivalent in LBP.
Read 20 tweets
Nov 29, 2020
1/ A thread on subsidies and the unfortunate need for it until a total financial and economic restructuring has been completed. (Disclaimer: 40-tweet thread ahead)
2/ 17th of October 2019 , Lebanon witnesses the start of a revolution, people took to the streets to express their anger and frustration towards a political class they deemed corrupt and inept at governing.
3/ Little did they know the depth of the hole this class had put them in, little did they know the real scope of the squandered funds they oversaw.
Read 41 tweets
Sep 21, 2020
1/ It is now quite clear that Iran will not allow the French initiative to bare its fruits. They firmly believe they can wait for the US elections after which they think they will negotiate with a new president and the Lebanese bargaining chip will be needed.
2/ To that effect, Hezbollah and Amal renegaded on their prior commitment to Macron and to the formation of an independent cabinet with a full rotation of ministries.
3/ Besides the obvious fact that no one is going to accept changing anything to the current political system, especially with one party baring arms, the timeline that awaits the country should be explained to the public.
Read 11 tweets
Jul 20, 2020
1/ I had promised a thread on neutrality and why i believe it is the cornerstone of any effort to rebuild the nation on a solid and sustainable footing, here we go 👇
2/ I am going to tackle it from 2 different angles, the first one would be purely tactical and is directly related to our current financial situation, while the second is much more strategic and involves a durable solution to our political problems
3/ I think that there are multiple views on how to tackle our financial meltdown, some of them complementing each others while the rest are completely incompatible. Whatever the proposal, they all agree on one matter : we need external financing to climb out of the hole.
Read 20 tweets
Jun 26, 2020
1/ A small thread on the exchange rate 👇
2/ Again with the basics: rate will be set by supply and demand. Any attempt to force the market will fail miserably, it is a simple reality. To curb the flying rate you either increase the supply by pumping dollars in the market or reduce the demand
3/ Since the short term capacity to pump USDs is very limited, the only other option is to reduce demand. I have covered this subject extensively in the past so i am going to update it here.
Read 13 tweets

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