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Rush Doshi

@RushDoshi

Oct 12

Recent PRC Ministry of Commerce public remarks are a must-read. Beijing seems a little rattled by the global response but is resolved to keep the regime.

Three points.

1⃣ They're worried about the global reaction to their moves. So they stressed (twice) verbatim that these export control measures on rare earths are not prohibitions/bans (中国的出口管制不是禁止出口).

2⃣The do not want to withdraw the controls. They also stressed these controls are their sovereign right. (这是中国政府依据法律法规，完善自身出口管制体系的正当做法)

3⃣ They haven't announced a response to Trump's threats. They say only the boilerplate "they do not want to fight, but aren't afraid of fighting." Suggests they may not want to see further escalation. (对于关税战，中方的立场是一贯的，我们不愿打，但也不怕打)

Bottom Line: Trump wants this regime withdrawn. Beijing won't do that, but is trying to reassure it won't implement it punitively. Obviously, that is not a credible promise on Beijing's part, and US and PRC positions are at odds.

Link: mofcom.gov.cn/syxwfb/art/202…

I don't think Beijing is backing down, or necessarily even actively seeking de-escalation; rather, it is trying to regain the narrative (with global alarm at their announcements) and reiterate resolve for retaining its current licensing regime.

Read 4 tweets

Rush Doshi

@RushDoshi

Sep 7

NEW: In the Sunday @nytopinion, Kurt Campbell and I argue America alone can’t match China’s scale.

With "allied scale," it’s no contest.

But if Trump keeps alienating US partners, we'll never get there—and the next century will be China's to lose.

1. SCALE AND GREAT POWER DECLINE

The UK had a first-mover advantage in steam power. That made it a global superpower.

But once larger countries industrialized too - Germany, US, Russia - they "outscaled" it.

The UK fell behind.

2. AMERICAN SCALE

America had scale, and American adversaries feared it.
• Hitler said the US was a "giant state with unimaginable productive capacities"
• Yamamoto said Japan could hold out only 6 months against US industry

That built the American century.

Read 13 tweets

Rush Doshi

@RushDoshi

Apr 11

NEW in @ForeignAffairs: Kurt Campbell and I argue that any serious China strategy must start with an old truth: “Quantity is a quality all its own.”

• Scale matters
• China has it
• We get it only through a new grand strategy of allied scale

We hang together—or separately.

1. UNDERESTIMATING CHINA

China is slowing, greying, & indebted. But macroeconomic challenges do not neatly translate to strategic disadvantage on the metrics and timeframe that matter in great power competition.

Scale matters, and we risk overestimating our unilateral power

2. SCALE AND GREAT POWER DECLINE

The UK had a first-mover advantage. But once larger countries industrialized too - Germany, US, Russia - they "outscaled" it.

From 1870-1910, its share of global manufacturing fell 50%. Germany and the US rose to 2x and 4x UK steel production.

Read 17 tweets

Rush Doshi

@RushDoshi

Oct 14, 2024

In today's @nytopinion, I argue that there is a bipartisan consensus on China but that Trump is outside it.

If he returns, he will again undermine it by putting self-interest first.

That could cost the US the decisive decade in the competition.

Thread and link below:

1/ At the beginning of the Biden Administration, many of us recognized this as the "decisive decade" in the competition.

Absent corrective action, the US risked being surpassed by China technologically, dependent on it economically, or defeated by it militarily.

2/ That recognition led to bipartisan legislative pushes on technology, reindustrialization, human rights, deterrence, alliances, etc. That is remarkable at a time of division.

But on each of these issues, Trump is outside the bipartisan norm.

Read 16 tweets

Rush Doshi

@RushDoshi

Oct 13, 2024

https://twitter.com/xhnews/status/1845572015664791809

PRC Eastern Theater Command just announced exercises in the Taiwan Strait.

Lai dialed back his 10/10 speech from his inaugural.

So China is validating those who say no matter what Taiwan does, no matter what Lai does, they will escalate.

Not a wise policy.

https://twitter.com/xhnews/status/1845572015664791809

Here’s what they say they will do.

Still remains to be seen *what* they actually do, of course, and how it compares to last exercises.

Link to the notification here: weibo.com/7483054836/508…

Link to the Eastern Theater Command map here: weibo.com/7483054836/508…

Excited about the PRC stimulus?

Too bad.

If you’re looking for a reason to de-risk from China, look no further.

Beijing will find one for you.

Read 5 tweets

Rush Doshi

@RushDoshi

Sep 25, 2024

I testified today before the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee.

I covered PRC national security laws and the conflicts of interest they can create for US companies, particularly in consulting and tech.

Testimony below and a quick thread to follow.

2/ Unlike the Cold War, US companies are deeply involved in the PRC in ways that sometimes create conflicts of interest.

One source is that the PRC might threaten market access if companies don't transfer IP, form JVs, censor speech, or refrain from taking the PRC to court.

3/ But another critical source is a suite of PRC national security laws enacted over the last 7 years.

2017 National Intelligence Law
2017 Cybersecurity Law
2020 Encryption Law
2021 Data Security Law
2021 Counterespionage Law
2024 State Secrets Law update

And others too.

Read 12 tweets

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