Thread by @bopinion

📈🏡 Surging home prices suggest many who are working from home or desperate to escape the city are in the market for a new house.

But given all the uncertainty, buying real estate right now is actually a terrible idea trib.al/fHwXIzX

Record low mortgage rates have enticed new buyers, while urban virus hotspots drove people out of cities.

In July, there was a 📉56% drop in Manhattan property sales and a 📈44% increase in nearby suburbs trib.al/fHwXIzX

But regret is already in the air.

One survey of 1,000 mortgage holders found that most people who bought houses after March 2020 already regretted taking out a mortgage trib.al/fHwXIzX

Buying in a sellers’ market is not a good move.

Home sellers are taking their once-in-a-lifetime moment to sell their house substantially over asking prices trib.al/fHwXIzX

Owning a home might be beneficial over the long run if:

🏠The house price appreciates more than a financial portfolio
🚗You don’t have to move
💍Your marriage lasts
🛑If neighborhoods stay the same

These things aren’t guaranteed, especially not right now
trib.al/fHwXIzX

But many buyers forget to budget for home repair and maintenance, which typically costs 2-4% of a house’s value per year

Then there’s all the weekend time spent mowing the lawn and cleaning the gutters trib.al/fHwXIzX

Another advantage to renting is avoiding the down payment.

Putting $50,000 into a down payment forgoes earning higher returns on a low-fee index fund, which is more liquid and less expensive to manage trib.al/fHwXIzX

Renters have more flexibility than homeowners, and that’s good for employees, especially in a time of so many uncertainties.

Renters can more readily move for a pay raise or new job trib.al/fHwXIzX

While there can be certain tax advantages to owning a home, these may not last forever.

Government support for policies subsidizing homeownership may wane as future Congresses look for new revenue to forestall soaring deficits trib.al/fHwXIzX

A pay cut or job loss might even lead homeowners to sell assets in their retirement accounts to pay their mortgage.

That’s a terrible setback: Some of the worst-hit families lost their jobs in the Great Recession and were stuck in their homes trib.al/fHwXIzX

Wait to buy a home until the economy, the virus and Congressional politics stabilize.

Sharing a small space is tough. Paying for a bigger one is even tougher trib.al/fHwXIzX