Could Trump’s tariffs raise $700 billion a year?

We did the math 🧵 $700 billion is about nine times current US customs revenue, and 2.4% of the most recent estimate of US GDP.

Tariff revenue hasn’t surpassed 2% of GDP since the early 1870s, and hasn’t surpassed it on a sustained basis since the 1820s and 1830s

Today, Meta is starting to roll out its own version of @X’s @CommunityNotes for Instagram, Threads and Facebook.

Will it work? Analysis of 1.1 million examples of the crowdsourced fact-checking system show it’s not stopping the spread of misinformation.

Look at the data 🧵 One of Community Notes’ main achievements is its speed in addressing misinformation. The chart below shows that it is getting faster 📈

But even with these improvements, notes typically appear after a post’s most viral stage of diffusion (after the damage is already done)

📉 VCs causing the downfall of SVB
💰 Credit Suisse’s pricey lifeline
🚐 RVs predicting the future

🧵 Catch up on the week in news with @ALampietti’s round up of our must-see videos If venture capitalists had stayed calm, would #SVB be OK today?

🎥 @kylascan has all the answers

Credit Suisse is in crisis.

What went wrong? So, so much.

🧵 Let’s take a look We *just* learned that #SVB’s downfall was announcing it was raising equity without having buyers lined up, says @matt_levine.

So why would Credit Suisse’s biggest shareholder announce they would “absolutely not” put more money into the embattled bank? trib.al/aS9oy3I

If health is wealth, America is dirt-poor.

The health-care crisis in the US isn’t just a tragedy for individuals. It makes it harder for the country to be productive and secure.

🧵 Let’s look at the data The most vivid sign of the health crisis is falling life expectancy, says @adwooldridge bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

📊 3 charts you need to see 📊

💰 Elon Musk is back on top
🇨🇳 Don’t panic over China’s “farm invasion”
⚡️ Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has dramatically redrawn the world’s energy map

Subscribe to Bloomberg Opinion Today for more trib.al/BNqIxPf 💰 Elon Musk is the world’s richest person again.

The billionaire has turned Tesla’s failing into winning bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

💸🪙 It’s one of the most revolutionary and over-hyped inventions of the 21st century.

And the Winklevoss twins are at the center of it.

This week’s Crash Course dives into the most recent meltdown in the crypto world iheart.com/podcast/1119-c… Our special guest this week is @LionelRALaurent, a financial columnist covering crypto from Europe.

At one point, he explains its rise and fall in under 30 seconds iheart.com/podcast/1119-c…

Joe Biden has now been president of the world’s largest economy for two years 🇺🇸 So how’s he doing?

Bloomberg @opinion columnists took a look at the strengths and weaknesses of his first two years in office.

🧵👇 Here’s what that looks like in data bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-… 💰 Jobs & Wages

Biden is on his way to becoming the greatest jobs-producing president in US history.

But wage growth isn’t keeping up with inflation, and if this doesn’t change, voters won't give him credit for all the jobs created.

@karlbykarlsmith bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-…

Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto exchange FTX has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. For customers, the losses are staggering.

In the grand scheme of business history, FTX looks like a greatest hits version of classic financial disasters
trib.al/1sL0Ce6 FTX extended too much leverage to its customers. When crypto prices crashed, the collateral couldn’t be sold without triggering further price declines.

This is similar to the nickel meltdown at the London Metals Exchange earlier this year
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

The heart of the US-China rivalry is in the Indo-Pacific.

@HalBrands is traveling across Japan, Australia, India and the UK to cover how they plan to contain China.

Here are some highlights from his dispatches ⬇️: trib.al/CJ4spFJ If there is a war between the US and China, it won’t simply be a fight over Taiwan or some other hotspot.

It would be a fight for hegemony in a crucial region, and for all the global influence that follows bloomberg.com/opinion/featur…

The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% in October from September.

The yield on two-year Treasury notes tumbled 22 basis points, and the Nasdaq 100 was poised for the biggest jump since April 2020 bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… Using three months of data to adjust for volatility, the annualized core CPI pace is still running around 5.8%.

This far exceeds the Fed’s idea of stable prices, says @JonathanJLevin
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

After a long campaign season, we’re finally here. Election Night.

Here’s what we’ve learned in recent weeks on the state of the race and the nation trib.al/hAEJazZ Democrats face tough odds to hold onto the House and Senate for a number of reasons tied to:

➡️ The struggling economy
➡️ Rising crime rates
➡️ Difficulties in connecting with voters trib.al/Q9uKkEg

Amid the brutal crypto selloff, Sam Bankman-Fried’s exchange FTX was hailed as the buyer of last resort amid the wreckage.

Now rival billionaire Changpeng Zhao of Binance is buying him out trib.al/PIAva7I Zhao announced plans to sell Binance's $530 million stash of the FTX-run token FTT, heaping selling pressure on an already battered crypto market.

This snowballed into an existential crisis for FTX. $1 billion was withdrawn from the exchange in a week trib.al/PIAva7I

The crisis in US K-12 public education continues to deepen, and decisions by many colleges and universities to abandon SAT and ACT scores are making it worse trib.al/4KZ5itW ACT scores have fallen to the lowest level in 30 years, while fourth- and eighth-grade math and reading scores from the National Assessment of Educational Progress show declines.

These results underscore the urgency of K-12 interventions trib.al/wCWSQKm

President Joe Biden’s policies didn’t cause many of the economic problems the US faces today. But they did make them worse.

His policies might reduce growth in the future and make the economy less equal and resilient trib.al/jjtIxtN The president normally doesn’t have much impact on the current economy; he doesn’t set energy or asset prices. But the Biden administration has been productive when it comes to economic policy making.

Most of those policies were bad for the economy trib.al/Ez65b22

Will they split? Won’t they?

On Tuesday, we finally got an answer to whether Kanye West and Adidas would go their separate ways.

📢 Today at 11 a.m. EST, join @skgreen, @AndreaFelsted and @benschott for a LIVE conversation on @TwitterSpaces: twitter.com/i/spaces/1dRKZ… The sportswear giant said it was ending its almost decade-long collaboration with the musician, now officially known as Ye, after putting it under review last month.

Adidas said it would terminate the partnership with Ye immediately bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

The most polarizing thing in finance is crypto.

So @matt_levine decided to write a 40,000 word thing about it for @bw. Here’s why: trib.al/fhtMliU Crypto is a set of ideas and products and technologies that grew out of the Bitcoin white paper.

But it’s also a set of lines on charts that went up trib.al/fhtMliU

California’s economy has proven resilient through Covid and high inflation.

The Golden State’s GDP is poised to overtake Germany’s as the fourth largest in the world after the US, China and Japan trib.al/40VIGVQ California already leapfrogged Brazil (No. 7) and France (No. 6) in 2015 and supplanted the UK (No. 5) in 2017.

Estimates suggest the state may have already caught Germany trib.al/9uVpLZ5

Rishi Sunak won the leadership of the Conservative Party and the prime ministership of the UK on the most important day of Diwali, the “festival of light.”

It is celebrated by Hindus, Sikhs, Jains and some Buddhists trib.al/gGWss1D Sunak will be the first Hindu to become UK prime minister.

His time in office will hinge on his ability to deliver a reasonable measure of prosperity to a country that is in dire economic straits trib.al/MwelLdo

The line up for the new leadership of China’s Communist Party is out. It’s a clean sweep for President Xi Jinping.

The new Politburo Standing Committee — China’s most powerful governing body — is comprised with his men trib.al/57Ehbeg New members of the Politburo Standing Committee include:

—Shanghai party secretary Li Qiang
—Guangdong province’s party chief Li Xi
—Beijing party secretary Cai Qi
—Xi’s chief of staff Ding Xuexiang

Li Qiang is likely to become China’s next premier trib.al/ru3K5LT

As the pound and euro struggle relative to the dollar, opportunistic US travelers might be wondering if it’s time to book an international trip.

But don't think there are bargain-basement prices everywhere in the UK and Europe trib.al/l7hDrHs The dollar may get you 20% more when dining or shopping, but in-demand hotels are still expensive.

High-end accommodations in Paris and Capri have increased their rates by as much as 40% and are likely to keep them there trib.al/l7hDrHs