Giles Wilkes Profile picture
Sep 14, 2020 5 tweets 1 min read Read on X
A lot of this discussion of the six-person rule appears wrongly premised on the idea that it defines a safe threshold i.e. "5 people meeting is safe, 7 isn't" or "six people meeting in work is fine, socially it isn't" which naturally inspires a lot of pointless facetiousness 1/
But that is OBVIOUSLY not what they are doing, right? They (HMG) are confronted with a vast collection of behaviours that together add up to a degree of infectiousness, and they are choosing which of them to bear down upon ...2/
... as smarter people than I am have put it: they have a budget, and since they think they are through their budget they are saving a chunk of behaviours, presumably those they deem to be least important economically or in some other wise 3/
so it is literally meaningless to say "the rule doesn't make sense, because if you can do X why can't you do Y?". Like when people say "what is the point of saving money on beer when you spend so much on coffee". It still saves you money. They are additive 4/
Anyway I am sure you all get this. I just needed to get it down to clarify what I thought. 5/5

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Giles Wilkes

Giles Wilkes Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Gilesyb

Jul 30
Reflection on yesterday's big moment from Reeves: this far, there's a pattern of the new government doing what was widely predicted, but still somehow managing to surprise on the upside in their delivery.

We all expected a "shocked face what a mess" moment...1/
It was visible from a distance that the Tories had set aside far too little spending to keep the public realm in a decent state, let alone deliver goodies like extra hospitals.

But the details, the vitriol and clear accusation of dishonesty were 🔥 2/

wp.me/pDsIG-15c
If the anger wasn't real, she's one helluva actor. The OBR's promised investigation into the circumstances of the last Budget means another big hit from this dishonesty accusation. It might build all summer, that narrative. They want it to land like 1992, like Truss...3/
Read 10 tweets
Jun 19
When I saw that @IPPR (@GeorgeDibb and @carsjung specifically) had written a report eviscerating the UK's investment record, my first reaction was a shrug and "huh, yeah we know that". But it is well worth your time: 1/ ippr-org.files.svdcdn.com/production/Dow…
To start cheekily: it praises the Sunak/criticizes Labour's plans!

"The government’s plans for ‘full expensing’ capital allowances are a step in the right direction"

"a Starmer-led government would cut public investment more than the 2010-24 Conservative administration"
2/
Two: it is salutory to be reminded of how deep-seated is the UK's failure to invest.

If you are looking for culprits behind our growth failures, *you need to find big things*. This is a big one - £1.9tn cummulatively. Had that been invested, GDP would be much higher ... 3/ Image
Read 7 tweets
Jun 3
Since there is nothing else going on, here is a good @IPPR report by @GeorgeDibb et al on Manufacturing and the Green transition

Some thoughts: 1/ippr-org.files.svdcdn.com/production/Dow…
They share the Johnsonian Cakeist position that Green Growth is a three-fer - you win at growth, regional balance and environmental policy by going for it.

This would be nice. But: 2/ Image
Others in the think tank ecosystem like @resfoundation with their Ending Stagnation work are more cautious: 3/ economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org/reports/ending…
Image
Read 14 tweets
Apr 15
Most of us are reasonably convinced that Truss's economic programme (fwiw) was proven to have failed within a month. The market verdict was brutal.

But most policy isn't that clear.

I read a LOT of centre left pamphlet-speak calling for industrial policy ... 1/
which you could machine-write: "the UK needs a green innovative industrial strategy that invests in sectors of the future and cuts pollution while creating green jobs and rebalancing the economy/levelling up. It should borrow to do this/tax the rich".

What I seldom read... 2/
... is anything like a statement of what failure would look like. Give it 50 times longer than Truss - 5 years, say. What would force you to concede "this hasn't worked"? What metrics would count for evidence? Or is that too short?

Or is it heretical to ask? 3/
Read 9 tweets
Mar 4
The Government has more Industrial Strategy than you can fit on an A2 sheet, a thread. Please tell me what is missing!

An Advanced Manufacturing Plan 1/assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65788f51…
Which includes the GIGA fund (Green Industries Growth Accelerator)
2/gov.uk/government/new…
... and also a Life Sciences Innovative Manufacturing Fund 3/gov.uk/government/pub…
Read 33 tweets
Jan 26
"Budget blowouts and delays: why the UK struggles with infrastructure"

OK, this is a vitally important and *difficult* topic, and it plays directly into a subject I've been trying to force myself to think about: when markets or planning are better 1/on.ft.com/3S5WnbK
This observation crudely suggests to me that the UK has opted for the ever-more-market approach to doing stuff. Issue a tender, that gets sub-contracted and so on in an attempt to stimulate competitive dynamics that somehow produce the best outcome. But it hasn't worked! 2/ Image
In my amateur estimation, we've been trying to exploit the insights of Hayek's Use of Knowledge in Society which emphasises the supreme knowledge difficulty of planning. But he understands that the right answer depends on circumstances! 3/ econlib.org/library/Essays…
Image
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(