Alex Epstein Profile picture
Sep 15, 2020 14 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Many politicians and media members media have a vested interest in moving past the CA blackouts and raising as few questions as possible about their cause. But Americans have a vested interest in understanding the cause, which is also the cause of rising costs: "unreliables."
"Unreliables" is the proper term for solar and wind electricity, often misleading labeled as "renewable energy." "Renewable energy" is misleading because it usually excludes reliable, renewable large-scale hydro. And because unreliable solar and wind aren't real, reliable energy.
Wind turbines and solar panels cannot provide the reliable energy that our amazing electrical grid requires 24/7. That’s why every place in the world that uses unreliable wind energy depends 24/7 on massive amounts of reliable energy from coal, gas, hydro, or nuclear plants.
Because wind turbines and solar panels are unreliable they can’t replace our reliable power plants, only duplicate or supplement them at tremendous cost. That’s why the more wind and solar a grid uses the more expensive its electricity tends to be.
Energy schemes around the world based on “unreliables”—solar and wind—have been driving up electricity costs, harming economies, destroying domestic industries, and harming consumers. Germans pay 3X US electricity prices to get just 1/3 of their electricity from solar and wind.
While unreliables mandates have obviously caused problems in California, they have also driven up costs and created real blackout risks in other parts of the country. US power prices are going up despite huge declines in the price of our #1 source of electricity: natural gas.
Higher power prices contribute to "energy poverty"--Americans experiencing hardship paying for basic energy needs. 25 million US households say they've gone without food or medicine to pay for energy. 12 million say they’ve kept their home at an unsafe temperature.
Skyrocketing energy prices from wind and solar mandates don’t just increase energy poverty. They increase all poverty by making every product more expensive, and by making American industry uncompetitive. Does anyone think Americans need higher prices and fewer jobs right now?
Thanks to unreliables mandates industrial customers report having their electricity cut off more frequently. Germany has cut off power to an aluminum company > than once a week to keep its unstable grid functioning. Is this what we want for US industry facing global competition?
TX, which has virtually unlimited ultra-cheap natural gas, has significant blackout and price-spike risk because of its insistence on mandating unreliable wind electricity. The Public Utilities Commission of TX calls their grid's margin for error ("reserve margin") “very scary.”
2019 TX incident: “As wind power slowed, [Texas] instituted its first level of emergency alerts, calling on small industrial and commercial generators to pour power onto the grid, and requesting power from Mexico from which an additional 60 MW were imported on Aug. 15." Power Mag
In the NE US, grid operator ISO-NE warns of fuel shortages and blackouts thanks to limited natural gas pipeline capacity: “In the coming years as more oil, coal, and nuclear leave the system, keeping the lights on in New England will become an even more tenuous proposition.”
Instead of learning from unreliable energy schemes in CA and elsewhere, the Biden Plan seeks to do far worse by outlawing reliable fossil fuel electricity and forcing Americans to pay $2 trillion--$15K a household--for a solar and wind-based grid that can’t possibly work.
The fastest way to increase electricity reliability and decrease cost is to end all favoritism for wasteful, unreliable solar and wind schemes. And above all reject any proposal to outlaw reliable fossil fuels and nuclear in favor of "unreliables." More at EnergyTalkingPoints.com

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More from @AlexEpstein

Apr 27
Canada has 3X the US’s oil reserves but less than 40% the production.

Why? Anti-oil politicians like Mark Carney who say they’re protecting Earth’s coldest country from global warming.

Here's the story of Canada's squandered oil opportunity—and how to reverse it 🇨🇦👇 Image
*Canada has the greatest oil opportunity on Earth: > 3 times the reserves of the US, with lower production costs.*

Canada has 170 billion barrels of proven oil reserves—by far the largest of any free country. And its producers can profit at $44 oil, vs. >$57 for US shale.

Canadian oil production is also continuing to get cheaper. Oil sands operating costs have dropped 19% over the past five years, and the industry—which is still fine-tuning how to coax oil-like bitumen out of oil sands—has substantial room for further cost reductions.

In addition to its massive proven oil reserves, Canada also has massive unexplored oil resources. Canada’s Northwest Territories may contain up to 37% of Canada’s total oil reserves, much of it light crude, which is even cheaper to extract and transport than bitumen from oil sands.
*Canada is squandering its oil opportunity, with < 40% of US production and much slower growth.*

Given Canada's massive oil reserves and lower production costs, Canadian oil should have been growing far faster than US oil—on a path to producing even more oil than the US does.

Instead, Canada is totally squandering its oil opportunity, with less than 40% of US production and slower growth since 2010.Image
Read 12 tweets
Apr 25
Why Congress's new budget should eliminate all IRA "tax credits"

1. They are subsidies
2. They promote inferior energy
3. They raise energy costs
4. They make energy unreliable
5. They increase our debt
6. They make our economy less productive
7. They don't lower CO2 emissions
*Truth 1: IRA energy tax credits are really just subsidies*

Real tax credits let productive industries keep/reinvest more of their profits.

Most IRA "tax credits" are transferable tax reduction certificates that unprofitable industries trade for cash. I.e., subsidies.

A tax credit lets productive industries pay less tax on profits, which enables them to reinvest in additional productivity.

But most IRA "tax credits" support activities that are unprofitable on a free market—e.g., solar, wind, hydrogen—and therefore have no taxes to reduce with credits.

How can unprofitable activities be set to get a trillion dollars in IRA "tax credits"?

Because they are aren't really tax credits but *transferable tax reduction certificates* that can be easily sold for cash to profitable companies (and sometimes the government itself).

Giving a trillion dollars in transferable tax cut certificates to unprofitable activities that pay no taxes is no different than giving transferable tax reduction certificates to individuals who pay no taxes.

It's a trillion dollar subsidy, not a tax credit.
*Truth 2: Every IRA subsidy promotes inferior energy*

Every subsidy has lobbyists who say it's somehow improving American energy.

But the fact is, they are demanding subsidies because the energy they are pushing is inferior and couldn't survive or thrive on a free market.

The IRA's "45Y" and "48E" subsidies will give $241-901 billion to companies for "clean electricity," mostly intermittent solar and wind—which would be used far less in a free market because they are so unreliable. E.g., CA has chronic reliability problems from depending on solar.

The IRA's "45X" Advanced Manufacturing Production subsidies will give companies $132-193 billion to inefficiently manufacture batteries, as well as the solar panels and wind turbines that are created huge reliability problems on our grid and increasing the cost of electricity.

The IRA's "30D," "25E," and "45W" subsidies will give $117-393 billion to companies for EVs—whose mix of cost and (in)convenience most consumers won't pay market prices for, and therefore need huge subsidies as well as mandates to buy.

The IRA's "45Q" subsidies will give companies $34-210 billion to capture CO2 and pump it underground—a process companies would use very little on a free market since it's so costly. E.g., carbon capture for a coal plant costs 4 times the price of the coal!

The IRA's "45V" subsidies give companies $33-100 billion for hydrogen fuel—which would exist very little in a free market because it's so expensive to make. Hydrogen costs 10 times what gasoline does for the same energy! And favored "green" hydrogen is even more!

The IRA's "45Z" subsidies will give companies $43 billion for various "clean fuel" projects, mostly biofuels—which would be used far less in a free market since they are expensive to produce and compete with food for cropland.

The IRA's "25C" and "25D" subsidies will pay (mostly wealthy) property owners $28-276 billion to use government-favored "energy efficiency" technologies like solar panels and heat pumps that they wouldn't otherwise use or be willing to pay for.
Read 10 tweets
Mar 28
⚠️ WARNING: The secret UN carbon tax that's about to fleece America

Next week, the UN votes on an ocean carbon tax that would spike the price of food, fuel, and everyday essentials—hitting US the hardest.

Here's what the admin and Congress can do to stop this in its tracks👇🧵 Image
The UN's International Maritime Organization (IMO) is supposed to ensure safe shipping around the world.

Instead, it's pushing a carbon tax on shipping fuel, with proposals ranging from $19 to $150/ton of CO2—the equivalent of adding $1.29 to the price of gasoline! Image
A $150/ton carbon tax on shipping would double fuel costs for large ships.

The marine fuel oil used to power most large ships costs ~$400/ton. Since burning one ton of marine fuel oil produces ~3.2 tons of CO2, a $150/ton carbon tax adds ~$480/ton—roughly doubling today's price.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 12
Did the EPA really just take the "Biggest Deregulatory Action in U.S. History"?

Actually, yes.

Here are 18 important deregulatory actions EPA announced today, and why they will make life better for all of us.

🧵👇
1. "Reconsideration of regulations on power plants (Clean Power Plan 2.0)"

These Biden regs would effectively ban all coal plants and new natgas plants by demanding impossible 90% carbon capture.

Reconsidering them is essential to preserving the grid and unleashing electricity.
2. "Reconsideration of light-duty, medium-duty, and heavy-duty vehicle regulations"

These Biden regs paved the way for the EV mandate by imposing unachievable emission standards on gas vehicles.

Reconsidering them is essential for preserving automotive choice.
Read 20 tweets
Mar 12
Amazing news: @EPA is challenging the single most destructive regulatory action in US history: the "endangerment finding."

This bogus "finding" allowed Obama/Biden to ban gas cars, shut down power plants, slow US oil growth, and lock up our limitless natural gas.

Full story 👇
Ever wonder why the Biden EPA was able to become an economic dictator, prohibiting most Americans from buying a gas car after 2032 and effectively banning all coal plants and new natgas plants after 2039?

It started with the Obama EPA's bogus "endangerment finding."
In 2009, the Obama EPA issued a "finding" that GHGs "endanger both the public health and the public welfare of current and future generations."

But GHGs mostly come from fossil fuels, which on net had clearly been enhancing health and welfare—and would continue doing so.
Read 13 tweets
Jan 15
It may seem impossible, but 4 years from now America can have

1. Record oil and gas production

2. Cheap, plentiful, reliable electricity

3. High environmental quality

4. Low climate danger

5. A nuclear renaissance

Here are the 25 policy changes that will get us there.

👇 Image
1: Unleash responsible development on federal lands/waters

Anti-development policies prevent us from tapping enormous energy reserves on federal lands/waters.

Responsible development can unlock the full energy potential of ¼ of the US (!) while protecting environmental quality.
2: Limit NEPA

The leading source of project delays is the abuse of NEPA (National Environmental Policy Act) to require endless environmental reviews.

Dramatically limiting NEPA's complexity and scope will help all energy reach its potential, from oil to nuclear to geothermal.
Read 28 tweets

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