Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Jim Bianco Profile picture
@biancoresearch
Sep 15, 2020 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
More on the retail options frenzy ...

Deltec Bank & Trust Ltd. shows, trading in options has in the last two months outstripped trading in underlying cash equities for the first time on record.
(1/3)
60% of options trading is in contracts with less than two weeks to expiration

(2/3)
Well over 2,200 stocks have options contracts listed on an exchange. The VAST majority of trading is in just seven names.

(3/3)

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Jim Bianco

Jim Bianco Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @biancoresearch

Jim Bianco Profile picture
Apr 21
1/6
The deficit as a % of GDP (bottom), now 5.93%, is higher than in any period except the Great Recession (2007 - 2009) and the 2020 COVID shutdown (dotted line).

The government is borrowing to spend money like the economy is trying to recover from a recession. Image
2/6
This separates Federal revenues (orange) and spending (blue).

The difference is the deficit (middle panel).

The bottom panel (black) shows that taxes only cover 73% of federal spending. The other 27% has to be borrowed. Image
3/6
Yearly federal spending is $6.24 trillion or 22.3% of the US economy (or nominal GDP).

Like the deficit chart above, the only time the government has spent this much as a % of GDP is when trying to get the economy out of a recession.

The economy is in year 4 of a recovery.Image
Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Apr 19
1/7
Happy Bitcoin halving day Degens!

A 🧵on

The flows peaked in a frenzy in Mid-March.

The 13Fs are a disappointment. Very little wealth manager adoption so far (like 1%).

Unrealized gains are shrinking fast.

Why I've been skeptical of Spot BTC ETFs.
2/7
* March 11 = only $1B inflow day.

* March 12 = Brokerage report saying $220B of inflows over the next 3 years (effectively predicting constant inflows, forever).

* March 13, all-time high close (5PM ET price)

Since the mid-March frenzy, inflows peaked (top panel). Image
3/7
The 3/31 13Fs are coming out, and they are disappointing for those who thought a big boomer wave of buying BTC ETFs through wealth managers was underway. Only odd lots.

IBIT has only 27 13Fs with more than 10,000 IBIT shares (~$360k), way less than 1% of outstanding shares. Image
Read 7 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Apr 16
1/15

What's going on with the bond market?

It is not pretty.

And if the bond market is ugly, everyone else suffers.

🧵
2/15

First, let's remember how this year started.

On December 18, 2023, BofA published its December 2023 Global Fund Manager Survey.

This graphic shows that these managers were the most bullish on rates since they started asking the question 20 years ago (2003). Image
3/15

Global fund managers agreed that 2024 would be the best time to be long-duration (lower rates) in the last 2 decades.

They were more bullish on rates now than on the 2008 financial crisis or the 2020 global economy shutdown (both were massive gains, if long-duration).
Read 15 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Apr 11
1/13

The street has had a tough 24 hours.

Rallied bonds/stocks into CPI, thinking they would miss the consensus (below). Instead, they beat the consensus (above).

This morning, they sold off stocks/bonds into PPI, thinking they would beat. Instead, they missed.

🧵
2/13

We need to ask why getting a handle on inflation is so hard.

My take ....

* Inflation is incredibly hard to predict. It might be the hardest of all economic indicators.

* Everyone believes inflation is the easiest to predict.
3/13

So, let's start with what I believe everyone still needs to understand ...

The COVID lockdown/restart of the economy was the biggest ECONOMIC event of our lifetime. Bigger than the financial crisis.

It changed the economy in ways we see but do not want to accept.
Read 14 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Apr 5
1/8
Late afternoon🧵on the bond market

1-Day tick chart of the 10-year yield

The 10-year yield sold off back to the day's high yield, closing at 4.40%.Image
2/8
The 10-year yield closed on the 50% retracement (cyan line, 4.40%), the highest since Nov 27.

Will it hold?

Ultimately, I don't think it does.

For months, I have been in the camp since the 10-year trades 5.00% (last year's high) to 5.50% later this year.

Still thereImage
3/8
1-day tick chart of the 2-year yield

The 2-year sold off hard in the afternoon and closed at 4.75%.Image
Read 9 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Apr 4
1/5
Payroll Report Preview 🧵

Economists’ median estimate for tomorrow’s payroll release is 215k. Estimates range from 150k to 250k.

Note that February was initially reported as 275k. So, every one of the 61 forecasts has payrolls declining from last month. Image
2/5
Since the beginning of 2022, economists have often underestimated the actual payroll release.

During these 26 months, economists underestimated payrolls 22 times. Image
3/5
The BLS surveys 120k "establishments" employing about one-third of the US labor force.

Lately, the survey’s response rate has been falling and becoming an issue.

The February payroll report’s initial response rate was 66.9% (blue line), which is higher than January's 56% (and December's 49%) but remains low compared to past decades.

As the red and purple lines show, the BLS follows up in the ensuing months to get the missing responses. But even these are falling.Image
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(