Share this page!

Jim Bianco Profile picture
Twitter logo
15 Sep, 3 tweets, 1 min read
More on the retail options frenzy ...

Deltec Bank & Trust Ltd. shows, trading in options has in the last two months outstripped trading in underlying cash equities for the first time on record.
(1/3)
60% of options trading is in contracts with less than two weeks to expiration

(2/3)
Well over 2,200 stocks have options contracts listed on an exchange. The VAST majority of trading is in just seven names.

(3/3)

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Jim Bianco

Jim Bianco Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @biancoresearch

Jim Bianco Profile picture
16 Sep
A thread explaining why the bond market is asleep and what wakes it up.

---

The next chart shows the MOVE Index (Merrill Options Volatility Estimate). It is the “VIX of the bond market” and is near its lowest reading in history (which was set on July 30).

(1/10)
Should interest rates be this low? Consider these 2 charts.

The bond market often moves in tandem with commodities. But as the boxes show, that has not been the case recently.

Commodities are suggesting interest rates should be moving higher, but they are not.

(2/10)
* Top panel shows the SPX (log)
* Orange bars show the VIX’s close on days the SPX hit an all-time high (ATH).

VIX hit 26.57 when the SPX hit an all-time high on Sep-2. The VIX has never been higher with SPX at ATH.

Stocks are not exhibiting low levels of volatility.

(3/10)
Read 10 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
14 Aug
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

He would be comfortable with inflation around 2.25% or 2.375%. The policy, known as average inflation targeting, would be a shift from the Fed’s current way of keeping prices stable, in which it targets 2% regardless of what happened in the past.

(1/4)
What Avg?

Below uses YoY chg in core PCE (orange) and the 6-mo Avg of this chg (yellow).

Kaplan's target has only been reached one time in the last 25 yrs, 06/07.

What would the reaction to Kaplan's comments if it was spun as "Fed ok with a 25-year high in inflation"?

(2/4) Image
To be fair, the Fed says they target headline. I would argue they really mean core.

The difference is largely gas prices.

Why core? Every time headline inflation surges because of gas prices, they call it a "tax" on the economy and back away from hiking rates.

(3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
9 Aug
The most active @PredictIt now is VP betting, regularly over trading 1M contracts a day (bottom panel). Total Open Interest is 20.8M

Harris leads has always led. But she is going the wrong way and now under 50%. Rice and Whitmer are rallying. No one else above 5%.

(1/3)
The decision is expected next week

My interpretation of this price action, Harris is the default choice they will settle with but they are desperately looking anyone/someone else.

(2/3)
Remember our view ...

Betting markets aggregate all known information into one probability into a type of real-time poll.

Does mean they are right, but all the KNOWN information suggests these are the most likely probabilities.

(3/3)
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
23 Jul
Today's case count hit 70k again ...

(1/6)
… led by the southern states ... but note some hope ... the seven day average (orange line) might be peaking.

(2/6)
Now for the bad news ... a potential new hot spot unfolding ... the upper Midwest. The 7-day average (orange) made a new all-time peak today, taking out its May peak.

(3/6)
Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
19 Jul
States making new high, or starting 2nd waves, they are headed by democratic governors here



Below is the states headed by republican governors making new high (orange line) or forming second waves.

This is not a partisan issue. @TBPInvictus

(1/4)
More states headed by republican governors

(2/4)
Still more states headed by Republican Governors

(3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
19 Jul
The biggest problem with the CV19 discussion is it has become a substitute for political preference. Your opinion about the virus is nothing more than screaming "I'm a D" or "I'm a R."

Assuming the worst offenders disagree, let's go through the data
@TBPInvictus

(1/5)
Here are the states headed by democrats governors that have seen a new high in the 7-day average (orange line) in the last week.

(2/5)
More states making new highs with democrat governors

(3/5)
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get email notifications when new thread is out from this Author!

Check out other threads from this Author!

Read all threads by @biancoresearch