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Jim Bianco Profile picture
@biancoresearch
Sep 15, 2020 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
More on the retail options frenzy ...

Deltec Bank & Trust Ltd. shows, trading in options has in the last two months outstripped trading in underlying cash equities for the first time on record.
(1/3)
60% of options trading is in contracts with less than two weeks to expiration

(2/3)
Well over 2,200 stocks have options contracts listed on an exchange. The VAST majority of trading is in just seven names.

(3/3)

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More from @biancoresearch

Jim Bianco Profile picture
May 30
1/5
Yesterday, AI-related stocks hit a high as a percentage of the S&P 500.

The AI influence on the stock market has never been larger.
🧵 Image
2/5
What are the AI-Stocks?

I use the list that J.P. Morgan's Michael Cemblast made last fall.

Here is a table with its details. Image
3/5
Note that the list above does NOT include SpaceX (which has Xai, or Grok), Anthropic, and OpenAI.  SpaceX's IPO is expected around June 12.

So, when will they be included in the S&P 500, allowing AI to account for over 50% of the S&P 500?

Last week, S&P proposed changing its rules so that mega-cap IPOs could become eligible for S&P 500 inclusion after six months, rather than the usual one-year seasoning period.

The proposal would also relax some standard hurdles for these companies, including minimum public float and profitability requirements.

But S&P emphasized that eligibility does not mean automatic inclusion—the Index Committee would still make the final decision.
Read 5 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Mar 22
1/4
Yesterday I posted the thread below arguing that the market is repricing an inflation shock, not a recession scare.

10-year yields are rising, bond volatility is exploding, inflation expectations are jumping, and Fed pricing has swung from cuts toward hikes.

Follow up 🧵
2/4
The immediate pushback is familiar: this “supply shock” will hurt real growth, so the Fed should cut rates.

This well-known economist has been making exactly that argument. Image
3/4
That is only half the equation. A supply shock hurts growth, but it also raises inflation, so the real question is which side dominates.

In 2022, inflation rose more than real growth fell: the blue CPI line and arrow moved sharply higher while the green real-GDP bars and arrow moved modestly lower. The bottom panel shows the Fed’s answer: hikes, not cuts, as the federal funds rate moved from near zero in early 2022 to above 4% by year-end 2022.

Why? When inflation rises faster than growth falls, nominal growth (real GDP plus inflation) rises. If today’s oil shock does the same thing as 2022, the correct takeaway is not automatic cuts. It is possible that the Fed may have to stand pat or even consider hiking.Image
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Mar 11
1/6
Ten seafarers have now been killed in 13 attacks on merchant vessels since the Iran conflict erupted on February 28 — more than the 7 U.S. servicemen killed in the war.

The focal point is shifting: can the Strait of Hormuz be reopened? Is the Administration pivoting to that mission?

Every day without a visible path to reopening, the market will price in more risk.

x.com/MikeSchuler/st…

@johnkonrad @mercoglianos
2/6
The problem: the Administration APPEARS to not be taking the Strait threat seriously. The contradiction is stark:

- Trump to tanker captains: "These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some guts, there's nothing to be afraid of..."

- The U.S. Navy, citing risk of attacks as "too high," says it is unable to provide escorts — despite near-daily requests from the shipping industry.

WTF!

x.com/foxandfriends/…
x.com/FreightWaves/s…
3/6
Yesterday, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine was asked about naval escorts in the Strait. His answer:

"If tasked to escort, we'll look at the range of options to set military conditions to be able to do that..."

Did he just admit they don't have a plan — and haven't started one?

Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Mar 9
1/5
A 10% increase in energy prices that persists for a year would push global inflation up by 40 basis points and slow economic growth by 0.1-0.2%, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said.

So, what price measures "persists for a year?"

🧵
2/5
As the table below shows, crude oil futures prices for delivery into 2027 are trading in extreme backwardation. Image
3/5
Below is the calendar spread between the first contract (now April) and the 6th contract (now September).

As the bottom panel shows, this spread is -25%, a record since the mid-1990s when the contract specifications were last changed. Image
Read 5 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Feb 7
1/4
I fear this is spot on.

@CryptoNobler's thread unpacks $BTC's "synthetic supply" problem. ETFs, structured notes (@CryptoHayes), futures, options, swaps, lending—all flood the system with "paper" BTC.

When it swamps real demand, price crashes.

x.com/CryptoNobler/s… x.com/coinbureau/sta…
2/4
@CryptoHayes: structured notes on $IBIT flooded $BTC with synthetic supply → forced liquidations turbocharged the dump.

Next rally? TradFi piles into ETFs → Wall Street "prints" more synthetics.

Price discovery decoupled from on-chain.

Volatility on steroids
3/4
Wall Street's entry turned BTC into a pseudo-fractional reserve system.

21M cap? On-chain only—price discovery swims in synthetic street "printing."

Fractional is inherently unstable. That's why banks need heavy regs (Fed/Treasury/OCC/FDIC).

On-chain BTC only needs code.
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Feb 1
1/6
10% of the outstanding $BTC is held by $MSTR and the 11 Spot BTC ETFs.

These are the ways normies hold $BTC in regulated brokerage accounts.

Collectively, the avg purchase price is $85.36K, meaning the average is now ~$8k underwater, with an unrealized loss of ~$7B.
🧵 Image
2/6
The 11 biggest spot $BTC ETFs now hold 1.29M $BTC – worth over $115B (Friday PM).

These ETFs hold roughly 6.5% of all $BTC in circulation.

The 3 largest – iShares’ $IBIT (blue), Fidelity’s $FBTC (red), and Grayscale’s $GBTC (orange) – hold 5.65%. Image
3/6
The 11 Spot $BTC ETFs average purchase price is ~$90.2K (blue), about $13K (16%) above the current price (bottom panel).

Note these ETFs are collectively on a record 10 consecutive outflow days. $BTC is down ~8% since Friday's NYSE close. Image
Read 6 tweets

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