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Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣 Profile picture
@rahmstorf
Sep 15, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Und nun die Wettervorhersage für Dienstag, den 15. September...
Es freut mich, dass viele hier auf den Unterschied von Wetter und Klima hinweisen! Aber wussten Sie auch, dass der Klimawandel inzwischen schon im täglichen Wetter nachweisbar ist? ethz.ch/de/news-und-ve…
Wer sich für die langfristige Temperaturentwicklung in 🇩🇪 interessiert:
Und unser Spektrum-Artikel zur Häufigkeit von Hitze- und Kälterekorden (pdf): pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Public…
Rückblickend brachte der Tag zahlreiche neue Septemberrekorde in Deutschland, Holland, Belgien. Einige Kommentare meinten offenbar, ich wolle damit etwas beweisen - aber dass es wärmer wird und Rekorde immer häufiger ist natürlich längst bewiesen.
Ein einzelnes Extremereignis ist immer nur eine Illustration des zugrunde liegenden Trends, aber für Laien ist der Link zur konkreten Erfahrung offenbar wichtig. Mein Tweet der Wetterkarte bekam 10x mehr ❤️ als mein Tweet der langjährigen Datenkurve.

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More from @rahmstorf

Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣 Profile picture
Aug 28
I was shocked when I first saw these results from standard climate models used in IPCC reports:
for high emissions, the Atlantic overturning circulation #AMOC shuts down in all 9 models that ran
past 2100, and is well on the way to shutdown by 2100.
Our paper is out today. 🧵 Image
The latest climate model generation CMIP6 consists of models from institutes around the world.
The IPCC report found that the crucial Atlantic Ocean circulation #AMOC will weaken. Now
some of the models have been continued beyond year 2100 and reveal a high risk of full
shutdown.
Even more worrying: the tipping point where the shutdown becomes inevitable appears to be
when deep convection in the northern Atlantic stops. This tends to happen in the next few
decades in these models, see two examples. Despite the models not even including Greenland
ice loss! Image
Read 9 tweets
Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣 Profile picture
Jul 11
We see here a self-styled "honest broker" with decades of experience in downplaying climate change presenting an age-old climate denial trope: using *annual* rainfall data as argument against an increase in *extreme* rainfall.
Does he *really* not know better?
Brief 🧵1/4 Image
What scientists have predicted since the 1980s is an increase in heavy rain at the expense of days with light or no precipitation. And that is indeed observed. See @Knutti_ETH That is because warmer air can hold more moisture (Clausius-Clapeyron law). 2/4 nature.com/articles/nclim…Image
That means an air mass saturated with water will hold 7% more water per degree of warming, so 7% more can rain out, all else remaining the same. Heavy rain gets that much stronger.
Why doesn't that apply to annual rainfall totals? Because those are ruled by different physics. 3/4
Read 6 tweets
Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣 Profile picture
Jul 5
Short thread with 2 basic facts you should know about this kind of flash flood. ⬇️
1. Extreme rainfall increases as global temperatures rise.
There’s a basic law of physics behind that (Clausius Claperon Law, known since 1834, see Wikipedia).
And numerous analyses of weather station data prove it. See e.g. ours.
nature.com/articles/s4161…
2. Global warming is caused by fossil fuel emissions. That is why it was predicted correctly before it was even observed. And even by scientists from fossil fuel companies like Exxon Mobil. But their bosses decided to tell you a different story.
Read 5 tweets
Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣 Profile picture
Mar 26
A new study by van Westen et al. shows that the #tippingpoint of the Atlantic overturning circulation #AMOC is also found in a high-resolution ocean model which resolves ocean eddies. A first, but no surprise to AMOC experts. 🧵
To find the tipping point you need to do a very slow, long hysteresis model run. That is so computationally expensive that it hasn't been tried before. All models which have tried show this tipping point - we published a first intercomparison in 2005. 🧵 agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20…
So all kind of models since Stommel's 1961 box model show it, due to the destabilising salt transport feedback. The new model also shows the well-known sea surface temperature fingerprint pattern of an #AMOC shutdown: the 'cold blob', and warming along the American coast. 🧵 Image
Read 5 tweets
Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣 Profile picture
Mar 15
Zur Erinnerung: Kernfusion ist /keine/ Klimalösung sondern klimaschädlich. (Nur falls jemand auf die Idee kommt, diese Träume von Merz mit Klimaschutzgeldern zu subventionieren.)
Kurzer Thread in 5 Bildern. Image
Image
Image
Read 7 tweets
Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf 🌏 🦣 Profile picture
Jan 12
2024 war global das heißeste Jahr seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen, mit 1,6 Grad über dem Temperaturniveau des späten 19. Jahrhunderts. Kleiner Thread mit Datengrafiken dazu. 🧵 Image
In Deutschland war es ebenfalls das wärmste Jahr seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen - allerdings schon 3,1 Grad wärmer. Weil Deutschland ein Landgebiet ist, erwärmt es sich doppelt so schnell wie der globale Mittelwert, der 71% Meeresfläche enthält. 🧵 Image
Diese moderne Erderwärmung ist praktisch komplett vom Menschen verursacht. Natürliche Faktoren haben weniger als + oder - 0,1 °C beigetragen. Das ist eine Kernaussage des Weltklimarats IPCC. Eher - als +, weil die Sonnenaktivität etwas abgenommen hat. 🧵 Image
Read 7 tweets

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