A thread on the impending, foreseeable @UniversitiesUK car crash: Cases have been surging since the re-opening of schools & the call to return to work in early September. 1/10
With the re-opening of schools, demand for tests now outstrips supply, and it will be a struggle for schools to remain open as a result. 2/10
An especially grim upshot is that there is now insufficient testing even for NHS workers. 3/10
It's therefore clear that, when university terms begin shortly, there will be insufficient capacity for the timely testing of all students & staff with symptoms. 4/10
As @Jim_Dickinson makes clear👇, if they can't get tested & receive quick results, students won't report symptoms & force their household to self-isolate. 5/10
As a consequence, there will be an unmonitored & uncontrolled spread of Covid-19 infections in university residential communities. 6/10
Needless to say, there won't be sufficient capacity for, or provision of, frequent testing of all, including those without symptoms, that's necessary to prevent widespread outbreaks in university communities. 7/10
In light of these circumstances, the only responsible course of action is for universities to move teaching online this term. "Anything else is inviting disaster." 8/10
In other words, all @UniversitiesUK employers should now do what @ucl has already had the foresight to do👇. 9/10
Anything else is inviting disaster. 👇 10/10
🚨PS: Limitation of face-to-face teaching the single most effective means of controlling spread of infection👇. Based on analysis of university modelling on which SAGE has drawn.
John Bell, Oxford Regius Prof of Medicine: "what has been underestimated was the speed at which the second wave would arrive, but also the pressure put on the system from children returning to school, and the testing demands associated with that"
It appears that prospective students were not put off by the prospect of online teaching provision at @ucl👇.
SAGE member: "My big worry now is that we might be too late again to avert a major second wave. If we wait for deaths to go up again before taking decisive action we will be in trouble again."
As elsewhere (e.g., Spain, France), a rise in the rate of infection among older groups in the UK is following the initial rise in rate among young adults. Hospitalisations also rising. 1/
Neil Ferguson: infection rates now comparable to late February & "rises in deaths will unfortunately follow in the coming weeks". 2/2
.@UniversitiesUK acknowledges urgent need to increase national testing capacity & availability for students👇. 1/2
Govt response: "It is vital that staff and students only get a test if they develop coronavirus symptoms."

I.e., we lack the capacity to provide asymptomatic testing that's necessary to prevent dangerous outbreaks in university communities.👇 2/2
This👇. Meanwhile @UniversitiesUK employers press ahead with their plans to re-open & the band plays on.

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More from @MikeOtsuka

31 Jul
🚨If university students aren't tested every 2-3 days, "colleges are very likely to fall prey to outbreaks that will place vulnerable people on campus & in the surrounding community at risk for serious illness and death." 1/
This according to @ADPaltiel, a Professor of health policy at @YaleSPH, in comments on epidemological modelling, for which he was lead investigator, published today in JAMA👇. 2/
See further comments👇by @ADPaltiel in above-linked press account. ("school" = "university") 3/ Image
Read 36 tweets
27 Jul
New paper👇on another superspreader event involving a choir. This one in France on 12 March. Choir practice in indoor non-ventilated room 45m2. Infection spread to 70% of 27 participants. 1/
The paper also mentions multiple superspreader events involving choirs👇. 2/
One cannot rule out the possibility that spreading occurred only or mainly as the result of close contact (<2m) mingling of the infected w/ others when not standing/sitting in place & singing. E.g., before or after rehearsal or during breaks. 3/
Read 5 tweets
8 Jul
"Sweden suffered a vastly higher death rate while failing to collect on the expected economic gains." x12 more deaths per capita than Norway, x6 more than Denmark. Central bank projected fall in GDP: NOR -3.9%; DNK -4.1%; SWE -4.5%. See also👇. 1/3
"supposed choice between lives & paychecks is a false one: A failure to impose social distancing can cost lives & jobs at the same time. ... simplistic to portray government actions such as quarantines as the cause of economic damage. The real culprit is the virus itself." 2/3
Confirmation that @sjwrenlewis was right when he wrote this👇. 3/3
Read 4 tweets
2 Jul
Your @UniversitiesUK employer has a legal duty to assess the risks of resuming teaching in person👇. Make sure yours has assessed the risks of airborne (aerosol) Covid-19 transmission in the *specific* classrooms in which you're assigned to teach. 1/7
Rate of ventilation of classroom (either air changes per hour or litres per second) is crucial to an assessment of airborne transmission risk👇. Make sure your employer informs you of the ventilation rates of the classrooms they've assigned you. 2/7
If they say they don't know 🤷‍♂️, inform them that they'll need to investigate to determine what this rate is, in order to provide a proper assessment of the risks of teaching in the classrooms they've assigned you. Also request floorspace & ceiling height of your classrooms. 3/7
Read 9 tweets
28 Jun
Every @ucu member will be charged £15. 120,000 members x £15 = £1,800,000! So the @UCULeft-controlled HEC blew a huge hole in union finances, by calling members out on 22 days of strikes w/o figuring out how to pay for them. Recklessly irresponsible. 1/
And then @UCULeft turns around and condemns the very levy that a majority of their own NEC members supported to bail themselves out of their own profligacy. @UCULeft has no shame. 2/
.@uculeft's own proposal to bail themselves out for their profligacy is to call on other unions -- whose average members are generally much less well paid than the HE members they called out for 22 days of strikes -- to donate £1mn to the @ucu strike fund. Again, no shame. 3/
Read 6 tweets
25 Jun
If a university in England with 10,000 students resumed in person teaching today, we can expect that 6 students would be Covid-19 infected, 4 of whom would be unaware of this fact. 1/8
Esp if not wearing good face masks, these 4 would place many others at risk by attending classes in enclosed rooms, esp if lacking good ventilation. Even with 2m distancing, they'd place others at risk via aerosol transmission throughout room. See👇. 2/8
Many of these classrooms will include someone whom the UK government rates as "at greatest risk of severe illness and mortality from Covid-19", because over 50 or with underlying co-morbidities👇. 3/8
Read 21 tweets

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