Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Michael Otsuka Profile picture
@MikeOtsuka
Sep 15, 2020 • 21 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
A thread on the impending, foreseeable @UniversitiesUK car crash: Cases have been surging since the re-opening of schools & the call to return to work in early September. 1/10
With the re-opening of schools, demand for tests now outstrips supply, and it will be a struggle for schools to remain open as a result. 2/10
theguardian.com/education/2020…
An especially grim upshot is that there is now insufficient testing even for NHS workers. 3/10
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-541568…
It's therefore clear that, when university terms begin shortly, there will be insufficient capacity for the timely testing of all students & staff with symptoms. 4/10
As @Jim_Dickinson makes clear👇, if they can't get tested & receive quick results, students won't report symptoms & force their household to self-isolate. 5/10
As a consequence, there will be an unmonitored & uncontrolled spread of Covid-19 infections in university residential communities. 6/10
Needless to say, there won't be sufficient capacity for, or provision of, frequent testing of all, including those without symptoms, that's necessary to prevent widespread outbreaks in university communities. 7/10
In light of these circumstances, the only responsible course of action is for universities to move teaching online this term. "Anything else is inviting disaster." 8/10
In other words, all @UniversitiesUK employers should now do what @ucl has already had the foresight to do👇. 9/10
ucl.ac.uk/students/acade…
Anything else is inviting disaster. 👇 10/10
🚨PS: Limitation of face-to-face teaching the single most effective means of controlling spread of infection👇. Based on analysis of university modelling on which SAGE has drawn.
John Bell, Oxford Regius Prof of Medicine: "what has been underestimated was the speed at which the second wave would arrive, but also the pressure put on the system from children returning to school, and the testing demands associated with that"
theguardian.com/world/2020/sep…
It appears that prospective students were not put off by the prospect of online teaching provision at @ucl👇.
SAGE member: "My big worry now is that we might be too late again to avert a major second wave. If we wait for deaths to go up again before taking decisive action we will be in trouble again."
itv.com/news/2020-09-1…
As elsewhere (e.g., Spain, France), a rise in the rate of infection among older groups in the UK is following the initial rise in rate among young adults. Hospitalisations also rising. 1/
thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/c…
Neil Ferguson: infection rates now comparable to late February & "rises in deaths will unfortunately follow in the coming weeks". 2/2
.@UniversitiesUK acknowledges urgent need to increase national testing capacity & availability for students👇. 1/2
standard.co.uk/news/education…
Govt response: "It is vital that staff and students only get a test if they develop coronavirus symptoms."

I.e., we lack the capacity to provide asymptomatic testing that's necessary to prevent dangerous outbreaks in university communities.👇 2/2
Hospital admissions rising sharply:
This👇. Meanwhile @UniversitiesUK employers press ahead with their plans to re-open & the band plays on.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Michael Otsuka

Michael Otsuka Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @MikeOtsuka

Michael Otsuka Profile picture
Jul 4, 2023
.@ucu says👇they've "received a letter from UCEA confirming their willingness to enter urgent negotiations..." However, the letter from @ucea1 says "the purpose of such a meeting is to explore ... whether a basis can be identified for the resumption of negotiations..." 1/
@ucu @UCEA1 That appears to fall short of the expression of a willingness to enter into urgent negotiations. The linked👇@ucea1 letter also says "As we have consistently stated, our mandate from the sector does not permit us to improve upon the 2023-24 pay uplift." 2/
ucea.ac.uk/our-work/colle…
@ucu @UCEA1 It continues: "In addition, our ability to continue negotiations on the pay-related issues from phase two of the negotiating round was contingent upon there being an acceptance of the Acas terms of reference and there being no further industrial action." 3/
Read 5 tweets
Michael Otsuka Profile picture
May 30, 2023
Now that @ucu's Congress is back in person (it went online during Covid), union policy is set by about 300 of its 120,000 members who are prepared to spend all 3 days of the spring bank holiday weekend in a conference center somewhere in the UK.... 1/
...listening to speeches on dozens of motions on a range of topics which needn't have any apparent relevance to the work of a UK University and College Union. The drafters of the notorious Ukraine motion didn't even bother to draw some tenuous connection to higher education. 2/
These 300 conference delegates who set union policy are largely unelected, since the number who put themselves forward in branch meetings typically doesn't exceed the number of delegates alloted to the branch. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Michael Otsuka Profile picture
May 27, 2023
🧵on the @ucu candidates for USS negotiator whom Congress delegates will elect. Here's the list of candidates👇. The three who are elected negotiators become UCU-appointed members of USS's JNC & the 2 reserves = alternates. 1/
ucu.org.uk/media/13818/El… Image
Mark Taylor-Batty (@cupofassam) & Jackie Grant are currently elected negotiators & JNC members. They have been instrumental in putting things on track for a full restoration of benefits👇. They clearly merit reappointment. 2/
ucu.org.uk/article/12962/…
Renee Prendergast is currently an elected alternate on JNC. As a past chair of UCU negotiators, she has a lot of negotiating experience & a realistic & well-informed approach. It would be ideal if Renee is elected alongside Jackie & Mark to serve on JNC in 2023-24. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Michael Otsuka Profile picture
Dec 1, 2021
🧵explaining what's so wrong with @USSEmployers VC Alistair Fitt's claim on @BBCr4today that "Modelling published by the @USSpensions trustee themselves shows that impact [of UUK's proposed pension cuts] is likely to be between 10% & 18% for the vast majority of members." 1/
As I've drawn to @USSEmployers's attention on more than one occasion👇, the 10-18% range is based on an outdated & otherwise indefensible assumption which understates the detrimental effect of the 2.5% cap on CPI revaluation. Please read🧵👇. 2/
.@ucu noted that this assumption was so indefensible that persisting with it would expose the consultation to legal challenge. We maintained that our actuary @FirstActuarial's modelling of the inflation cap was far more accurate. 3/
Read 28 tweets
Michael Otsuka Profile picture
Oct 21, 2021
In his 18 Oct letter to @ucu GS @DrJoGrady, @AlistairJarvis repeats this false £860 claim.👇 He writes: "a university staff member earning £40,000 per annum would be paying an additional £860 in pension contributions next year for the same benefits". 1/
The actual annual increase is +£550, not +£860. When we break this down by month, paying an extra £40 per month from April to Oct 2022 would make it possible for this member to retain current pension benefits rather than take the hit of the UUK cuts.👇2/
The extra £40 per month = a rise from £327 to £367 paid each month. That's a 12% increase to avoid UUK's reduction in their future accrual from 1/75 to 1/85 during that period, PLUS UUK's reduction in the upper limit of inflation protection from 10% to 2.5%. 3/
Read 28 tweets
Michael Otsuka Profile picture
Jun 5, 2021
🚨🚨🚨The SAUL pension scheme announces that it is in SURPLUS -- 109% funded -- as at 31 April 2021. It was, however, in deficit -- 94% funded -- as at 31 March 2020 triennial valuation date. (@JosephineCumbo) 1/
saul.org.uk/#/page/sauls-h… Image
It appears that SAUL's actuary has certified the Schedule of Contributions at 30 April 2021 date of signing rather than 31 March 2020 valuation date. Hence the schedule assumes a surplus & therefore no deficit recovery contributions. 2/
While past pensions promises are more than fully funded, the cost of making pension promises in future years is now estimated to cost 35% if benefits and investment strategy remains the same. This is 13% above the current 22% contribution rate (6% member, 16% employer). 3/
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(