Thread by @houterkabouter

We are again approaching peak corona panic, but there are two good reasons to stay vigilant but calm.

1) There is no urgency to react.
2) There may be no need to react, provided we keep avoiding (close) contacts between generations and within older generations.

1/7

Starting with the second point: this model predicts that even if we do nothing, the evolution of the epidemic will be "benign". Cases will rise to high levels, but deaths and hospitalizations are limited.

2/7

https://twitter.com/houterkabouter/status/1305410520657391616?s=20

Sounds familiar? That is what is happening in France and Spain, who are ahead of us. Even if one distrusts this model (as you should with any model), we can take advantage of that. If things get out of hand there, we still have time to react here.

3/7

The biggest risk is that the average age of infected people starts increasing, and thus the IFR will rise along. This depends entirely on our behaviour, so that is less predictable. There is already a slowly increasing trend since the start of August.

4/7

So still a risk, but that brings us to the first point: it is unrealistic to assume that Re has increased to the high numbers of February. Our behaviour has changed. Even seeing people shaking hands or giving greeting kisses in TV shows/series, feels alien to us.

5/7

The current estimate for Re is ~ 1.25 (1.0 - 1.5). If we would take action on October 1st and return to our behaviour of August 1st (thus, closing all schools), then this would result in 100 - 750 deaths until the end of the year.

6/7

There is thus no urgency to act (unlike in February). We can indeed wait until we see a worrying increase in deaths or hospitalizations. This is not just theory, but actually what happened in August, and which was predicted in early July.

7/7

https://twitter.com/houterkabouter/status/1281305842411765763?s=20