Sinan Aral Profile picture
Sep 15, 2020 14 tweets 6 min read Read on X
[🚨New Book🚨] Today is the BIG DAY! With the help of so many amazing people, I'm SO excited to launch my first book, THE HYPE MACHINE, today!

sinanaral.io/books

For those of you who like to sample before you buy, here is a sneak peak at the book in 12 acts 1/
[Chapter 1] opens with the annexation of Crimea as a leading example of the geopolitical impact of the New Social Age. It provides new evidence on the role of social media in the Crimean annexation - the first forceful redrawing of European borders since WWII. 2/
[Chapter 2] traces the Rise of Fake News all the way to the End of Reality, covering its impact on elections & democracy, business & markets and our public health like #Covid_19. It covers the science of fake news and the implications of the rise cheap, ubiquitous #deepfakes 3/
[Chapter 3] goes under the hood of the Hype Machine, from the Technology Trifecta that created it, to the Hype Loop process (the dynamic interplay of human agency and machine intelligence) that runs it to the Four Levers that control it: Money, Code, Norms and Laws. 4/
[Chapter 4] describes the neuroscience of what happens to our brains when we use social media, how our brains evolved to process the Hype Machine's social signals, how social media was designed for our brains & the neural foundations of how social media changes our behavior. 5/
[Chapter 5] details the economics of social media and how a little known economics paper from 1974 laid out the go-to-market strategy @Facebook used to defeat #MySpace (Hint: Its not just network effects, but a specific type of network effects that matter). 6/
[Chapter 6] describes how social media scales mass persuasion, enabling anyone, from Russian agents to small business owners to steer our opinions, beliefs, perceptions and behaviors and the importance of causality in assessing the Hype Machine's impact on our world. 7/
[Chapter 7] details how the Hype Machine hypersocializes our society, injecting the influence of our peers into everything we do, from exercise, to news, to dating, to charitable giving and even to our emotions, documenting the vast interdependence social media creates. 8/
[Chapter 8] describes five essential strategies businesses, policymakers and influencers must use to adapt to a hypersocialized world and create change and innovation in the New Social Age. 9/
[Chapter 9] describes the attention economy the Hype Machine runs on. It assesses whether Cambridge Analytica's microtargeting was real or snake oil and the implications of algorithmic amplification in creating a "tyranny of trends." 10/
[Chapter 10] describes how the Hype Machine overturns the Wisdom of Crowds, creating a Madness of Crowds instead. It discusses the science behind "filter bubbles" & "echo chambers," the Hype Machine's role in pulling us apart & how we can regain crowd wisdom. 11/
[Chapter 11] reminds us of the promise of social media to create social & economic opportunity, powerful (yet fragile) social movements, (unequal) economic opportunity & how the source of its promise is also the source of its peril, making it hard to regulate. 12/
[Chapter 12] describes how we must adapt to the New Social Age, providing detailed solutions for Privacy and Data Protection, Antitrust, Competition, Data Portability, Fake News, Free Speech vs Hate Speech, Election Integrity and much much more... 13/
[Fin] I'm excited to collaborate with the diligent technologists, activists, journalists, scientists, policymakers, & citizens working to improve the New Social Age & to move this conversation forward from the Hype Machine's peril to its promise. I hope this book helps! 14/

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More from @sinanaral

Nov 10, 2022
🚨New Paper🚨 Many have asked my opinion on @elonmusk's new verification, blue check & identity cue ideas for @Twitter.

Today we published a large-scale experiment in @NatureHumBehav showing identity cues have dramatic effects on how we perceive & engage with content online

A🧵 Image
Our paper on "Identity Effects in Social Media" w/ @seanjtaylor @LevMuchnik & @madhavkumar2005 reports the results of a ~*2 yr* experiment on a social media site similar to Reddit, where content was randomly assigned to identified or anonymous conditions w/ & w/o identity cues. Image
Here's the full paper:

"Identity Cues in Social Media"
nature.com/articles/s4156…

Out today in @NatureHumBehav
Read 13 tweets
Oct 20, 2022
A 🧵 about an important and amazing paper by @RoeeLevyZ, my @MITSloan colleague @alexeymakarin and Luca Braghieri on:

The *Causal* Link between Social Media Use and Mental Health... Now forthcoming in AER.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
There has been wide debate and well founded skepticism until now about the mental health effects of social media use... While it's convenient to blame social media for depression and declining teen and young adult mental health, the causal evidence has been weak to non-existent..
In this paper, the authors use a clever natural experiment, combining the staggered @facebook rollout to colleges from 2004-2006 with 430K responses to the National College Health Assessment survey to estimate the impact of social media on mental health
Read 19 tweets
May 3, 2022
My Predictions for what @elonmusk will do w/ @Twitter

1. A tiered subscription service to try to shore up revenue (this will not solve misinformation or hate speech at all).

2. Clean up bots (it's a low hanging fruit that will help the health of the platform & be an easy win)
3. Several high profile free speech events (expect Donald Trump back on the platform).

4. Content moderation will continue but will be limited to explicitly the bear minimum that meets the Digital Services Act.

5. Mass identity verification similar to @Facebook
6. "open sourcing" algorithms but with central control so people can submit code "suggestions" but the company decides what gets commited.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 6, 2022
🚨Mind Blown🚨 In some "you can't make this stuff up" news, I've written a short piece that I hope gets some attention

Fake News about our Fake News Study Spread Faster than its Truth… Just as We Predicted.

cc: @kakape @danengber @jugander @jonassjuul

link.medium.com/0apVPPck0ob
Several prominent journalists recently spread misinformation about the science of misinformation…
They claimed that a study my colleagues @dkroy, @CrashTheMod3 and I published on the cover of @ScienceMagazine in 2018 had been debunked.
science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
@danengber tweeted “I love this so much: Remember the Science paper showing that misinformation travels farther and faster on social media than the truth? It was wrong!”
Read 15 tweets
Apr 5, 2022
Important & well written counter argument to my WAPO article on the subject by @carljackmiller. But, my argument is that Russia & anti-western social media did all this before. Difference today is the strength of Ukrainian efforts & platform response. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Both arguments can be true. In 2014 what @carljackmiller writes about dominated the information space almost unopposed & the pro Ukrainian take down efforts were much more effective than today. Still: vigilance is still essential.
For reference, here's my @wapo piece, in which I repeat the need for vigilance.
washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/0…
Read 5 tweets
Feb 25, 2021
[🚨Event Announcement🚨] As Director of the @mit_ide (and on behalf of our amazing team) I'm so proud to announce the launch of The First Social Media Summit at MIT (SMS@MIT)! #SMSMIT

ide.mit.edu/events/the-soc… 1/ Image
SMS@MIT brings together the world’s leading thinkers on social technology to examine the impact of social media on our democracies, our economies, and our public health — with a vision to craft meaningful *solutions* to the social media crisis. 2/ Image
The Summit is a FREE virtual event that will take place on April 22nd, 2021, live streamed from @MIT around the world. Register for FREE now to reserve your spot!👇 3/
eventbrite.com/e/the-social-m…
Read 14 tweets

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