I have a new report out today on our annual survey of the freelance economy. This year we are able to look at how freelancers are faring under COVID, and we learn a lot about the diversity & flexibility of freelancing. upwork.com/i/freelance-fo…
To start, it’s useful to characterize what has happened to the level of freelancing overall. What we found was that after covid a lot of people started freelancing for the first time. But we also had a lot of people pause freelancing.
One story that has been pushed is that the rush of new freelancers has crowded out previous freelancers, but looking at the data don’t think this is largely the case. New freelancers and paused freelancers are very different. Here are the differences:
New freelancers are largely:
More full time
More remote
Younger
More educated
In harder hit occupations
More likely to be male, urban, and caregivers
In contrast, paused freelancers are:
Freelancing on the side
Less remote
Less educated
In less hard hit occupations
For example, the top occupations for new freelancers are computers/mathematics and finance/business operations, for paused freelancers it’s education and construction. New freelancers in programming aren’t crowding out freelancers in ed.
Decline of side-gigs and rise of full-time freelancers is consistent with other data. In the CPS, self-employment share of employed is up while multiple jobholding is down. Non-employer business registrations are also up.
Another factor driving the demand for some freelancers is that they have always been disproportionately remote, and there is obviously a major need for remote work now. Even before COVID, one in four freelancers was entirely remote.
However, we can also show that is was not *just* labor demand that increased, but labor supply also. This is clear in Upwork data, where freelancer registrations actually picked up before client registrations.
Uncertainty also affects supply & demand. When businesses are uncertain and have to respond to quickly changing conditions, freelancers help them be agile. For freelancers, lots of clients means diversifying when many are at risk of closing
Finally, flexibility is very valuable. For clients, they need to rapidly respond to business challenges. On Upwork, we see demand for customer services and a sustained increase in demand for ecommerce development and web and mobile design
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This is another vibe shift indicator that neoliberalism and libertarianism are back.
What needs to be done is to craft and defend the smartest version possible of these ideologies. We cannot end up embracing crudest forms as the left and MAGA did with their moments in the sun.
Let me give concrete examples. First, high skilled immigration is a core tenant of neoliberalism. But if we just staple green cards to diplomas we will create many problems eg diploma mills & probably end up with blowback. We need a real plan. Here it is eig.org/exceptional-by…
Embracing free trade and rejecting protectionism is also essential. But we need to think hard about whether we can improve industrial capacity and advanced industries, and insure ourselves against China invading Taiwan. This must be done in a way that understands and embraces global value chains, not rejecting them for autarky.
The economics profession is still not grappling with the magnitude of the intellectual error in underestimating full employment. I think it is worth rewinding the clock to see how badly the story was missed....
In 2018, Kearney and Abraham wrote a paper about the decline in employment ratios. They used data through 2016, and in it make zero mention of whether the incomplete recovery from the Great Recession was a factor. pinguet.free.fr/nber24333.pdf
Here is their table of what mattered and estimates of how much it mattered. Effects range from food stamps to the minimum wage to robots and trade. But nothing about the incomplete Great Recession recovery
New report out today with @LettieriDC and @BenGlasner on an important question: how much progress has there been for the American worker? I want to get into the weeds a little bit on the methodological debate in this thread…eig.org/american-worke…
@LettieriDC @BenGlasner Real wages are notoriously hard to measure, so we will always have some disagreement. But we argue there actually should be a consensus that real wages have not stagnated. Yet you hear this stagnation claim all the time! Even from experts.
@LettieriDC @BenGlasner For example, in a recent Journal of Labor Economics article, Hurst and Kahn write: "... since the early 1980s, measured median real hourly compensation has been stagnant despite robust productivity growth." journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.108…
It's time to talk about labor market utilization indicators.
Domash and Summers wrote that U3 was the better measure of labor market slack than prime age employment rate, and thus wage growth was going to remain high bc labor markets were very tight...
They wrote "the unemployment rate is more important than the prime-age employment ratio in predicting wage inflation". And they argued labor supply is unlikely to come back. Thus there was reason to be pessimistic wage growth would be reduced except by demand reduction alone...
The alternative view was the prime epop was the best indicator of labor market slack in equilibrium, and that the wage pressure we experienced was at least in some substantial portion a departure from that equilibrium. Contra Summers, this suggested room for labor supply to help
I honestly don't think its very mysterious why the public isnt' thrilled with the economy yet. Pandemic economy was a chaotic high inflation mess & people haven't moved on yet. Please tell me the economic rule that says as soon as the problem is fading people must be thrilled
Its very hard to find a house, and prices haven't actually fallen except for a handful of things. The world feels more expensive. And by the way, people can tell that stimulus played a role. Just give it time and hope we keep making further progress, which we should.
Normal people know that there was a ton of money pushed out in the pandemic that made people less willing to work for some time, and this lack of workers created goods & input shortages, problems that have taken a long time to dig out of even as people have come back to work.
@JHWeissmann The two key components are the sacrifice ratio and NAIRU. Now the sacrifice ratio tells you how much extra U you need to reduce inflation by 1pp. Since U hasn't gone up, ignoring month to month volatility, this can't be the incorrect assumption.