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Raoul Pal

Sep 15, 2020 • 10 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X

The Summer Dull ( The Vol Crush Edition)

I hope at some point this boring range of vol death across most asset classes will break...

Gold miners - rangebound but might be breaking out...

Gold - Yawn... but maybe it will breakout soon or maybe it sets a wider range again...

Banks... yawn...

Bond yields... death of vol.

Dollar... no vol here too.

Bitcoin - Choppy consolidation.

EM FX - Nothing to see here either yet.

The Fed balance sheet... zero vol.

And the real time economic data is the same...

We just have to wait, but eventually the ranges will break and we will get more clarity on the opportunities.

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More from @RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

May 13

A bit of shade being thrown about the Banana Zone. Let me clarify...

Macro Summer and Fall are driven by the global liquidity cycle that exhibits clear cyclicality since 2008.

Why since 2008? Well, back then the worlds all reset their interest payments to zero and they debt maturity to 3 to 4 years, creating a perfect macro cycle.

You can see the perfect cyclicality in ISM (the best guide to the business cycle)

Read 19 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

Apr 28

Ever wondered where all my research comes from?

Well, the genesis of ALL my thinking comes from Global Macro Investor, where @BittelJulien and I do our deep thinking each month (120 pages+).

I'm immensely proud of GMI and Ive been writing it for 20 years.... 1/

It is an expensive research service and is subscribed to by many of the world's largest hedge funds (usually the principals), SWF's, Asset managers, RIA's, Family Offices and HNW investors.

It also has the best proven and recorded track record of any research service...ever.

A 20-year track record of performance is not something that any other service provides.

My track record has many 100% plus years (thank you crypto!), many decent years, some so so and some bad ones. But it is all timestamped and transparent.

Read 9 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

Apr 28

The Pause That Refreshes...

1. Bitcoin

The Pause That Refreshes...

2. ETH

The Pause That Refreshes...

3. SOL

Read 10 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

Apr 4

The Fed arent going to cut! Its only going to be once or twice! The markets are going to freak out!

Meanwhile, in Global Macro Investor (GMI)...

1995/6 springs to mind... 1/

Bond yields didnt return to their lows...(or their highs)

And equities went into hyperspace (even with a massive dollar rally).

Read 5 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

Mar 24

What is Macro/Crypto Summer and why does it matter?

Well, macro summer has started, its the part of The Everything Code cycle where the ISM picks up (GDP growth).... 1/

And that is driven by liquidity, which bottomed at the end of 2022... macro summer and fall are all about liquidity rising and is a core part of The Everything Code thesis...