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Raoul Pal Profile picture
@RaoulGMI
Sep 15, 2020 • 10 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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The Summer Dull ( The Vol Crush Edition)

I hope at some point this boring range of vol death across most asset classes will break...

Gold miners - rangebound but might be breaking out...
Gold - Yawn... but maybe it will breakout soon or maybe it sets a wider range again...
Banks... yawn...
Bond yields... death of vol.
Dollar... no vol here too.
Bitcoin - Choppy consolidation.
EM FX - Nothing to see here either yet.
The Fed balance sheet... zero vol.
And the real time economic data is the same...
We just have to wait, but eventually the ranges will break and we will get more clarity on the opportunities.

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More from @RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal Profile picture
Aug 31
Crypto is still being adopted at twice the speed on the internet from 5m IP addresses vs 5m wallets (very like for like). 1/ Image
And its on its way to 4 billion by 2030... Image
And that will take it from $4trn in market cap today to $100trn by 2032/2034 Image
Read 7 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Aug 29
Let's talk about the Crypto Waiting Room... many key part of the crypto ecosystem are in the waiting room ready to launch. Let's look at a few (you will have yours too...)

Total3 - Ex- BTC and ETH...ready to launch from the waiting room. 1/ ... Image
OTHERS (Outside of Top 10... purest form of Alts season where all shit rises). Still in the waiting room but longer to launch... Image
ETH... Full Port. Image
Read 14 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Mar 10
This too shall pass...

Crypto is still feeling the tightening in liquidity from the stronger dollar and higher rates in Q4 2024. That is almost done and financial conditions are easing fast and M2 is headed back to new highs. This is just a regular correction... 1/ Image
We had the exact same correction in 2017 caused by the same reaction to Trump policies (higher dollar and higher rates which then reversed). 2/ Image
Over time, we just keep climbing the log regression channel. Whether we stay at the man (red) or climb above it by another standard deviation or two remains to be seen as the cycle develops. Image
Read 4 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Nov 10, 2024
We are very close to being in the Last Chance to Add Zone in crypto. The next step should be the memes breaking out and after that there is nothing to do but wait to take lifestyle chips off the table.

Here is $DOGE leading the breakout... 1/ Image
Here is $WIF about to break out... Image
And Smoking Chicken Fish will follow suit.. $SCF Image
Read 4 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Nov 5, 2024
These are the three most important charts in Global Macro, along with Crypto - from this months Global Macro Investor publication:

1. Demographics are destiny. GDP slows over time as size of labour force shrinks. Image
2. Government Debt to GDP ratio is just a function of the working population. It offsets the weak growth and pays for the compunding interests on the debts. This is THE most important chart in macro. Image
3. That debt is serviced via debasement via liquidity increases over time. Image
Read 4 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Oct 29, 2024
With $BTC well over $70k... Im looking for the final confirmations from some others. $SOL over $185... 1/ Image
$SUI is breaking its consolidation now and should be headed to new ATH's Image
And $DOGE is within sniffing distance... the dog can smell the ripening fruit. Image
Read 4 tweets

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