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Raoul Pal

Sep 15, 2020 • 10 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X

The Summer Dull ( The Vol Crush Edition)

I hope at some point this boring range of vol death across most asset classes will break...

Gold miners - rangebound but might be breaking out...

Gold - Yawn... but maybe it will breakout soon or maybe it sets a wider range again...

Banks... yawn...

Bond yields... death of vol.

Dollar... no vol here too.

Bitcoin - Choppy consolidation.

EM FX - Nothing to see here either yet.

The Fed balance sheet... zero vol.

And the real time economic data is the same...

We just have to wait, but eventually the ranges will break and we will get more clarity on the opportunities.

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More from @RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

Apr 4

The Fed arent going to cut! Its only going to be once or twice! The markets are going to freak out!

Meanwhile, in Global Macro Investor (GMI)...

1995/6 springs to mind... 1/

Bond yields didnt return to their lows...(or their highs)

And equities went into hyperspace (even with a massive dollar rally).

Read 5 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

Mar 24

What is Macro/Crypto Summer and why does it matter?

Well, macro summer has started, its the part of The Everything Code cycle where the ISM picks up (GDP growth).... 1/

And that is driven by liquidity, which bottomed at the end of 2022... macro summer and fall are all about liquidity rising and is a core part of The Everything Code thesis...

And that, in turn, lifts tech stocks... they LOVE macro summer and fall...

Read 10 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

Feb 4

It can't be this easy, right?...right? Part 1 - Bitcoin +110% annual returns from doing nothing.

It can't be this easy, right?... right? Part 2 - Nasdaq +21% annual returns from doing nothing.

Maybe it really is this easy? BTC vs GMI Total Global Liquidity Index (global fiat debasement)...

Read 7 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

Dec 2, 2023

I thought I'd share a new way of thinking about crypto that might help make sense of it all for you.

This first appeared in my November Global Macro Investor (GMI) monthly. I don't normally share direct work from GMI bit I think its worth it.

Enjoy.

1/

Read 5 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

Nov 25, 2023

Raoul's Easy Guide to the Business Cycle and Why it Matters:

Today:

ISM leads GDP by 3 months. ISM is around zero GDP growth currently, so GDP should be low Q4 and Q1.

This is where cyclical stocks, RTY and commodities live, and is why they are subdued.

ISM + 5 Months:

But our Lead indicator for ISM has been rising sharply. This is generally where the SPX lives (part cyclical, part growth) and explains the SPX strength vs Russell 2000 (RTY) or commodities...

ISM + 11 Months:

Using our GMI Financial Conditons Index, we can peer 11 months into the future, suggesting a strong year in 2024. This is where the growth assets of NDX and Crypto live. This is why they bottomed before everything else...

Read 10 tweets