Raoul Pal Profile picture
15 Sep, 10 tweets, 3 min read
The Summer Dull ( The Vol Crush Edition)

I hope at some point this boring range of vol death across most asset classes will break...

Gold miners - rangebound but might be breaking out...
Gold - Yawn... but maybe it will breakout soon or maybe it sets a wider range again...
Banks... yawn...
Bond yields... death of vol.
Dollar... no vol here too.
Bitcoin - Choppy consolidation.
EM FX - Nothing to see here either yet.
The Fed balance sheet... zero vol.
And the real time economic data is the same...
We just have to wait, but eventually the ranges will break and we will get more clarity on the opportunities.

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More from @RaoulGMI

19 Sep
Im so lucky to do what I do. I've had some HUGE interviews so far in 2020 where I've been left blown away...

Some of those:

@KiteVC
@AlderLaneeggs
@michael_saylor
@DTAPCAP
@hendry_hugh
@ParrillaDiego
@KeithMcCullough
@TeddyVallee
@LynAldenContact
@SimonDixonTwitt
List is ridiculous... but there are more legends I personally have interviews:

Dan Morehead
Ben Melkman
Jason Buck
Kiril Sokolof
Chrisophe Oliari
Gerard Minack
JeffGreene
Howard Marks,
Dylan Grice
Dee Smith
Tom Jessop

Im sure Ive missed off some faves.
Read 5 tweets
7 Sep
The correction in Bitcoin and Ethereum are close to having filled all the gaps on the week day only charts (seems to work).

Here is BTC Image
Here is ETH... Image
And here are all the big corrections after the last having.. 25% to 35% on a closing basis seems to be expected and normal. Image
Read 4 tweets
31 Aug
I wrote a very long GMI Monthly this weekend (143 pages, 15,500 words). The core focus was this month on crypto, which I think its the worlds best trade and of which Im irresponsibly long.

Here are a couple of pages with some top-down thoughts.. #Bitcoin
I hope it gives you some thought but as ever it's too basic for many of you and too controversial for others! I just do my best to educate.

Thanks @coloradotravis for brainstorming the collateral idea and thanks Delphi Digital for the DeFi article.
Read 4 tweets
29 Aug
It's Friday night on FinTwit, so it's booze night...

It's been a while since my rum thread. Time to talk wine!

Stories of bond villains, globalization and the world's most underpriced fine wine awaits (along with affordable rec's too)
Let's start this story with someone called Robert Parker, a newsletter writer back in the late 1970's and early 1980's.

When we understand Parker, you eventually get to why my favorite wines are dramatically underpriced.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Pa…
Parker had a paid newsletter called The Wine Advocate and was a small time player until, similar to financial newsletters, he got it really right once, back in 1982, when he rated the Bordeaux vintage higher than anyone on first tasting.
Read 47 tweets
28 Aug
I know bitcoin and gold are selling off right now and may go further but with Powell today, it tells you they have no desire to raise rates and a skewed desire to print more. That plays to the inherent upside skew in both assets.

I think they both rise over time in inflation 1/
2/ or deflation. Most people don't understand the latter but is simply put, Powell has shown that there is ZERO tolerance for deflation so they will do ANYTHING to stop it, and that is good for the two hardest assets - Gold and Bitcoin. Powell WANTS inflation.
I don't think he gets true demand push inflation but he will get fiat devaluation, in conjunction with the other central banks all on the same mission.

Overall, I think #Bitcoin outperforms gold. Gold can go up 2x or 3x or even 5x while bitcoin can go up 50x or even 100x.
Read 5 tweets
10 Aug
I like to get the texture of a move by looking at the long-term charts. Bitcoin is a stunner. The monthly chart has only just broken out this month. It has a long way in time and price to go....
And in log-terms is barely broken out yet. Super, super early days for what is likely to be a very big move as institution finally follow what retail BTC investors have known all along -- that this is the future and its wildly under priced.
And it hasn't yet made it move versus gold, but its about to break out there too...
Read 5 tweets

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