Thread by @NoTeamsIndy

@JoeBiden v. Trump 9/15 UPDATE

Nat'l: Biden +7.8 / Clinton +1.6

EC: Biden 283-124 (+159) / Clinton 212-210 (+2)

Biden 50%+ in FIVE battlegrounds, 49%+ in TEN.

ZERO for Clinton: highest 44.9%, ≥40% in 10/18

Next up: convention bumps real? Enthusiasm gap gone?

NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 polling averages

2. LV when available, otherwise RV; no A

3. Polls w/3rd party used when available

4. Turnout-hypothesizing versions of polls not used

5. Outliers (10%+ off of polling average) excluded

ETERNAL REMINDERS:

1. 2016 nat'l + battlegrounds polling *averages* were ACCURATE (≥5%), except WI/IA:

aapor.org/Education-Reso…

2. This is NOT A FORECAST. Also, forecasts aren't "yes/no" predictions* They're probability reports (fyi, 538's largely matched Team Trump's at ~30%)

A1a. Convention bumps: Trump gained ~1.5% nationally, far less than what someone trailing 8-9% needs. Battlegrounds generally reflect this, in addition to a big move toward Trump in FL. But we've also seen a big move toward Biden in AZ, suggesting that this is not a uniform move.

A1c. Registered to likely voters (RV/LV) switch: comparing 7/15-8/14 to 8/15-9/14, A/B-rated pollsters' use of LV up 70-90% in battlegrounds, 30-70% nat'l. This switch favored Trump ~1-2%, which could account for the perceive "convention bump," with only real movements in FL/AZ.

A2. Why such small “bumps,” compared to 2016? One reason: average undecideds + 3rd party 7.3% now, about a THIRD of Clinton's 21.5% on 9/15/16.

AND Biden’s lead is larger than / equal to ALL remaining undecideds in FIVE battlegrounds, ZERO for Clinton.

A2a. That's because 2020 general electorate has more engaged than Election Day 2016, 2012, or even Obama’s first election in 2008 since JANUARY! This question isn't asked very often by pollsters, but 2020 polls that did find 82-89% "very/extremely" interested or motivated.

A2b. In 2020, top pollsters started "weighting for education" by including more non-college educated, reflective of 2016 turnout. We’ll see if that repeats in 2020, but it usually benefits Trump ~3%. So by 2016 practices, Biden would be +10.8% nationally, with 318 EC votes.

A3. Biden *should* be weaker than Clinton, since he's running against an incumbent, who've won re-election 10 of 13 times since 1916 (LBJ, Truman didn't run).

Per @ForecasterEnten, Biden's in the strongest position of any challenger in modern polling

cnn.com/2020/05/31/pol…

A3a. Enten further notes that the only incumbent in modern polling to come back after trailing as badly as Trump is now was Truman in 1948. Carter was in a similar position in 1980, and lost by 440 electoral votes.

cnn.com/2020/06/27/pol…

(A3a) As much as trailing candidates love the Truman story and this famous pic from 1948, polling methods have been fundamentally changed since then, not least by moving away from "quota sampling," and literal door knocking to find respondents:

math.upenn.edu/~deturck/m170/…

A3b. Biden hasn't trailed in a SINGLE nat'l poll by an A-B rated pollster in 2020. Clinton trailed in EIGHTEEN by 9/15/16. Just four ties for Biden (same for Clinton), and only one w/undecideds ≥10% (Atlas 2/3: 45/45); in other words, when leaners break, they break for Biden.

A3b. In fact, Biden’s lead is STEADIEST in modern polling. Why? Because both candidates have served in the Executive, and both have 95-100% name recognition. Add to that extreme political polarization, and you have an extremely steady race. And also...

cnn.com/2020/09/06/pol…

A3c. Voters just LIKE Biden more than Trump:

He’s currently +1 in un/favorables, which is 13% BETTER than Trump, whereas Clinton’s rating was only slightly better than Trump's in 2016. Trump's "very/highly" unfavorable is also 12% higher than Biden's!

fivethirtyeight.com/features/ameri…

B3b. This reflects Trump’s job approval, which is the lowest overall average of any president in modern polling. At this point in his fourth year, Trump is trailing Ford and LBJ, only slightly ahead of GHW Bush and Truman, and leading Carter.

So why all these comparisons to the last election? First, there are some valuable contrasts to be made, especially since Biden’s running against the same opponent.

But mostly, it’s cuz if ya don’t, people who just don’t like the data will lazily say "BUT 2016!!!"

B1. How's he doing it? Per A/B-rated nat'l polls (8/15-9/14) vs 2016 exits, he's outperforming Clinton:

White: +10
White/college: +26
White/no coll: +20
Men: +10
Indies +11
Moderate: +18
Over 65: +14
Suburban +15

B1a. The most noteworthy of these is that Biden is within ~5% of Trump with white voters. No Dem's won this group since LBJ in '64. Only others to get within 5% were Carter 76, and Clinton 92/96, two of the last three Dems to win the presidency. All others lost by 10-20%+.

B1a. Reflective of this, he's also doing 26%(!!!) better with white college grads, a group that’s been a key swing demographic since 1988. More importantly, he’s doing 20% better with white voters who didn’t go to college, a group that turned out BIG for Trump in 2016.

B1b. Next is being essentially TIED with men. The last three to do it were Carter 76, Clinton 92/96, and Obama 08. All others lost by 10-20%+.

He’s winning another traditional GOP bloc, voters over 65, which only Carter and Gore have carried since 1972.

B1b. Biden’s also doing historically well in the suburbs, outpacing Clinton by 15%. This is notable, considering Trump’s recent, less-than-subtle appeals to suburbanites, who were a key swing demographic in 2016.

cnn.com/2020/07/19/pol…

B1c. A popular myth these numbers explode is that Biden's struggling with young voters. While pollsters divide age groups differently (e.g., 18-29 vs. 18-34, 30-44 vs. 35-50), he’s currently running 5% better than Clinton with the youngest group, 18-29.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden…

B1d. Biden is absolutely OWNING the political middle, doing 11% better with independents than Clinton, and 18%(!) better with moderates, and doing ~5% better with conservatives. This also helps Biden, based on a recent Gallup poll showing a substantial break toward the left.

B1e. One last myth to put to bed is that Biden struggles with liberals. In fact, he’s outpacing Clinton by 8%.

B1f. One demographic where Biden has a slight weakness is Hispanic and Black voters: Trump’s 5% stronger than 2016 with both groups, and a large number of undecideds still remain. Biden has gone up on the air with ads focused on these groups in the past week, so we'll see...

B2. Enthusiasm: Trump touted a June poll showing 50% of his supporters “very excited” to vote for him, with just 27% saying the same for Biden. Of course, Biden had recently finished a hotly-contested primary, and was still consolidating the party. But two bigger issues here:

B2a. In 2020 primaries, desire to beat Trump turned out record numbers (). New Fox poll shows the same primary motive, and recent studies show voting AGAINST a candidate has been more powerful than for 2000's (papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…).

Advantage Biden.

B4b. New CNN poll showed the percent of Biden and Trump supporters who are “enthusiastic” the exact same at 87%, with “very/extremely enthusiastic” essentially tied at 72-74% (margin of error ~6.0).

Translation: the enthusiasm gap is GONE (if it ever really existed)!

But speaking of gaps and polls, remember that these data can always CHANGE. Whatever polls say, they don’t mean anything unless you vote!

So check your registration and make your voting plan at IWillVote.com, and then VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE!!!