Henry Gao Profile picture
Sep 15, 2020 4 tweets 2 min read Read on X
The decision is hardly surprising, but there are two interesting points in the panel report:
1. Whether the Phase 1 deal constitutes a mutually agreed solution;
2. whether the US tariffs could be justified under the public morals exception.
The first one was easy, while the second one is more tricky, as the US measures were allegedly taken against IP theft, misappropriation and unfair competition by China. The Panel ruled against the US, not because the US couldn't do so, but due to the lack of nexus and necessity.
I'm most amused by the argument by China that the criminalization of a conduct under domestic law doesn't really provide sufficient justification for invoking public morals exception. I wonder if its lawyers ever realized that this argu could be used against China in another case
But I guess China is not alone in that regard, as the other WTO Members, who joined as 3rd Parties, also seemed to be confused, at least judged from their submissions in the case.

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More from @henrysgao

Jan 12
How Might the CCP Fall?

The fall of the CCP could occur in several ways, though some scenarios appear more plausible than others.

One possibility, akin to the USSR, is a top-down dissolution where the Leader announces its end. However, this seems increasingly unlikely under Xi.
A more probable scenario might resemble the collapse of East Germany—an accidental unraveling triggered by unexpected events.

As China’s anti-corruption campaigns hang like a Damocles sword over officials, the fear of prosecution might push some to act preemptively:
For example,
Officials could make “accidental” announcements that serve as the first falling domino:
• Propaganda officials might announce the abolition of media/Party restrictions.
• Generals could declare that the military serves the people, not the Party.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 1
Bloomberg confirmed that China is raising salaries for civil servants, as I mentioned 3 days ago. The move is supposed to kill two birds with one stone: boost both consumption and the morale of officials.

However, it not only won't achieve either objective but, instead, reveals
deeper structural problems within the Chinese governance system.

1. The primary cause of weak consumption lies in the plummeting incomes of private-sector workers. In contrast, most civil servants already benefit from low housing, food, and healthcare costs, which diminishes the
marginal utility of additional income. Moreover, due to the aggressive anti-corruption campaigns in recent years, officials are less inclined to spend conspicuously, even if they have more disposable income. Thus, efforts to boost consumption should target the private sector.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 27, 2024
Who’s Gonna Decide the Fate of @tiktok_us?

Not @realDonaldTrump.
Not the US Supreme Court.
Not the US Congress.

Instead, it might just be a former Chinese gymnast: Wu Liufang.

Wu, whose 6 million followers vanished overnight on Douyin—the Chinese version of TikTok—represents
a cautionary tale of control and censorship.

A former national team gymnast, Wu struggled to make a living after retiring. To survive, she turned to flirty dance videos on Douyin. Her account, briefly suspended in Nov, was reinstated on Dec 1, skyrocketing to over 6 million
followers without her posting a single new video.

But on Christmas Eve, Douyin erased all 6 million followers, citing “vulgar content.”

Here’s the twist: Wu wasn’t the one being punished. The real victims were the 6 million users who consciously chose to follow her, only to
Read 5 tweets
Dec 21, 2024
@guoguang_wu兄的精彩演讲探讨了后中共时代政治转型中必须面对的若干重要问题,这些问题也是当前国内外华人普遍关注的焦点。如何回答这些问题,将直接关系到中国民主化的成败。我对此有一些初步思考,在此抛砖引玉,与国光兄商榷。

一、经济增长
国光兄提到的第一个问题是后中共时代的经济增长前景。
过去四十多年,坊间普遍认为中共的合法性主要来自其推动经济增长的能力。但我认为将经济增长完全归功于中共统治是片面的。改革开放前20年的经济增长,实际上主要得益于中共放松了对社会在政治经济领域的管控,释放了民间经济的活力,举凡个体经济、乡镇企业,还是民营经济,莫不如此。
而后20年的经济增长则主要得益于2001年加入WTO,融入全球经济体系,沿袭了东亚外向型经济增长模式,并无特别创新。

因此,后中共时代能否继续保持经济增长实际上是显而易见的。目前中国经济困境的两大原因分别为:
1. 外因:战狼外交和经济胁迫策略使主要出口市场对依赖中国供应链的风险产生警觉,
Read 13 tweets
Oct 10, 2024
In an attempt to save its economy, China published a draft Private Economy Promotion Law today.

Will it save the ailing Chinese economy?

Highly unlikely.

Yet, this Law is still very useful, in that it reveals the many problems plaguing China’s private economy. Image
1. The very first Article states that the goal of the law is to “promote the healthy development of the private economy”.

But “healthy” according to whom? Should’t the private entrepreneurs be the ones to decide? Why should someone else decide this?

The answer is found in Art. 2, which states that the key to the work promoting the development of private economy is to “ensure its correct political direction”.

What then is “correct political direction”?
Read 23 tweets
Jul 31, 2023
秦晖教授的精彩演讲回答了关于中国民主化的几个重大问题:

1,民主制度是否适用于像中国这种文化和宗教传统都与世界主要民主国家截然不同的国家?

民主化的实现并不以特定文化或宗教为先决条件,基督教、君主制可以促成民主化,儒学同样可以也可以促进民主化。

2,像中国这样长期实行社会主义、
自由传统薄弱的国家,是否能够实现民主化?

无论是左派还是右派,都可以促进民主化:左派可以要求增加政府责任,右派可以要求限制政府权力。而与之相反,在中国,那些只要求政府扩权、却反对相应扩大政府责任的左派都是伪左派;同理,那些不要求限制政府权力、只要求限制政府责任的右派也是伪右派。
3,如何实现民主化?

实现民主化,不需要喊那些激动人心的口号,也不需要讲那些诘屈聱牙的道理,只要人人从我做起,追问政府责任,要求政府履行其本应履行的义务,从社会主义的初心出发,就可以把政府逼得不堪重负,最终被迫召开制宪圆桌会议。
Read 4 tweets

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