Henry Gao Profile picture
Sep 15, 2020 4 tweets 2 min read Read on X
The decision is hardly surprising, but there are two interesting points in the panel report:
1. Whether the Phase 1 deal constitutes a mutually agreed solution;
2. whether the US tariffs could be justified under the public morals exception.
The first one was easy, while the second one is more tricky, as the US measures were allegedly taken against IP theft, misappropriation and unfair competition by China. The Panel ruled against the US, not because the US couldn't do so, but due to the lack of nexus and necessity.
I'm most amused by the argument by China that the criminalization of a conduct under domestic law doesn't really provide sufficient justification for invoking public morals exception. I wonder if its lawyers ever realized that this argu could be used against China in another case
But I guess China is not alone in that regard, as the other WTO Members, who joined as 3rd Parties, also seemed to be confused, at least judged from their submissions in the case.

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More from @henrysgao

Apr 10
A New BRI on the Horizon?

Today’s front page of People’s Daily features the Central Peripheral Work Conference—a major development, given this is only the second such meeting in the PRC’s 76-year history.

The first such meeting was in Oct 2013, when Xi launched the BRI, which Image
was elevated to a national strategy at the 3rd Plenum of the 18th CCP Central Committee held the following month.

As I argued in this @trade_review article 3 years ago, the BRI was China’s strategic response to US containment through the TPP, where the
cambridge.org/core/journals/…Image
@trade_review US tried to “make sure the US—and not countries like China—is the one writing this century’s rules for the world’s economy.”

But the TPP was killed.

Now, as @realDonaldTrump tries to rewrite the rules of global trade through the Reciprocal Tariff Policy, China is striking back.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 9
China today released a white paper titled “China's Position on Some Issues Concerning China-US Economic, Trade Relations.”

No, it’s not about setting the record straight as it claims.

It’s a retaliation wishlist—and a catalog of Beijing’s deepest trade fears. Image
1. Retaliation List:
• Banning U.S. services exports
• Halting IP protection for U.S. companies
• Imposing forced tech transfers
• Banning U.S. food and agricultural products
• Limiting access to China’s financial markets
• Devaluing the RMB Image
2. Fear List:
• Repeal of PNTR status
• Trade and investment restrictions on national security grounds
• Expanded export controls
• Section 301 tariffs
• Section 232 investigations
• Use of trade remedy tools (AD/CVD)
• Ending the de minimis exemption
• Reciprocal tariffs Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 8
Why did Trump impose tariffs on Heard & McDonald Islands-home only to penguins, and British Indian Ocean Territory, which is occupied solely by military personnel?

No, it’s not because of internet domain names, as some speculated.

The answer is found in today’s People’s Daily Image
editorial, “Pressure and threats are by no means the right way to deal with China,” which proudly declared that China maintains “import and export records with almost all countries and regions in the UN Standard Country or Area Codes for Statistical Use.”

And guess what? Among Image
those listed in the UN Standard Country or Area Codes for Statistical Use are the Great Territories of the British Indian Ocean Territory and Heard and McDonald Islands!

unstats.un.org/unsd/methodolo…Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 7
Three things you need to know about Liberation Day tariffs:

1. It’s not about the methodology.

The formula has been widely mocked, but that misses the point. The numbers aren’t meant to hold up in a PhD defense—they’re meant to shock, to create leverage. The more extreme the
figure, the stronger the incentive for other countries to come to the negotiating table with the U.S.

2. It’s not even about the tariffs.
The real issue isn’t Vietnam’s tariff rates—it’s China’s trans-shipment tactics and its central role in global supply chains.

The aim is to
isolate China and rewrite the rules of global trade. If a country like Vietnam is willing to align with that goal, it doesn’t matter much whether it sets its tariffs for American products at 0%, 5%, or even 9.4% (current rate).

3. It’s not personal with any country—except one.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 7
Amid Trump tariff chaos, People’s Daily published an editorial today urging everyone to “Focus on Doing Your Own Things”—a phrase that sums up China’s core strategy. This thread breaks it down.

It begins by acknowledging that U.S. tariffs do hurt, but “the sky can’t collapse.” Image
That phrase—“the sky can’t collapse”—is notable. Mao used the exact same words in 1962 during a meeting of 7,000 top CCP officials, after a disastrous 13 years marked by the Great Famine and split with a world Superpower - the USSR.

Fittingly, this is also the 13th year of Xi’s Image
reign—featuring the Great Lockdown and split with a world Superpower - the US.

The editorial offers 5 reasons why “the sky can’t collapse”:

1. China is a mega-sized economy with strong resilience to U.S. pressure.
2. China’s dependence on the U.S. is shrinking: exports to U.S.
Read 15 tweets
Apr 4
Cambodia 49%, Laos 48%, Myanmar 45%, Vietnam 46%.

At first glance, these tariffs seem irrational — but let’s try to make some sense of them.

Put simply, these 4 countries got high tariffs because of the significant volume of transshipment from China to U.S. routed through them.
So while the tariffs may not make traditional economic sense, they might make strategic sense — as a deterrent against serving as transshipment hubs for China.

In effect: allow transshipments, and your own exports get punished.

Is it crude?
Yes.

But could it be an effective
way to tackle the transshipment issue?
Possibly.

How might these countries respond?

One option — which may be exactly what Trump administration is aiming for — is for them to start rejecting Chinese transshipments, or even imposing steep tariffs on Chinese imports themselves.
Read 4 tweets

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