The decision is hardly surprising, but there are two interesting points in the panel report: 1. Whether the Phase 1 deal constitutes a mutually agreed solution; 2. whether the US tariffs could be justified under the public morals exception.
The first one was easy, while the second one is more tricky, as the US measures were allegedly taken against IP theft, misappropriation and unfair competition by China. The Panel ruled against the US, not because the US couldn't do so, but due to the lack of nexus and necessity.
I'm most amused by the argument by China that the criminalization of a conduct under domestic law doesn't really provide sufficient justification for invoking public morals exception. I wonder if its lawyers ever realized that this argu could be used against China in another case
But I guess China is not alone in that regard, as the other WTO Members, who joined as 3rd Parties, also seemed to be confused, at least judged from their submissions in the case.
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Quick thoughts on America First Investment Policy:
1. It aims to usher in “America’s Golden Age”, which will be achieved through facilitation of “investment by US allies and partners” and “protect the US from new and evolving threats that can accompany foreign investment.”
2. Not only will it stop direct investment by China in the US, but also it will stop ivestment “through partner companies or investment funds in third countries.”
3. The way to solve the problem is:
A. Restricting Chinese investment “to take over US critical infrastructure” &
“PRC-affiliated investors … targeting the crown jewels of US technology, food supplies, farmland, minerals, natural resources, ports, and shipping terminals.”
Bad news for Chinese companies in these sectors.
B. Restricting Chinese companies listing on US exchanges, including
Looking for policy signals from Xi’s meeting with private firms?
These 2 photos tell you everything:
1. 4 decades after launch of reforms, private businessmen are still only shown from behind - suggesting they remain a face the CCP prefers not to see, much like a chamber pot
you avoid unless absolutely necessary.
2. With only one person talking—Xi—and private businessmen busy taking notes, the message is clear:
there is no real dialogue, only directives.
3. The best these businessmen get is half of their face turned toward the leader’s entrance—signaling that all initiatives must come from the Party, while the private sector merely waits to sense which way the wind is blowing.
The fall of the CCP could occur in several ways, though some scenarios appear more plausible than others.
One possibility, akin to the USSR, is a top-down dissolution where the Leader announces its end. However, this seems increasingly unlikely under Xi.
A more probable scenario might resemble the collapse of East Germany—an accidental unraveling triggered by unexpected events.
As China’s anti-corruption campaigns hang like a Damocles sword over officials, the fear of prosecution might push some to act preemptively:
For example,
Officials could make “accidental” announcements that serve as the first falling domino:
• Propaganda officials might announce the abolition of media/Party restrictions.
• Generals could declare that the military serves the people, not the Party.
Bloomberg confirmed that China is raising salaries for civil servants, as I mentioned 3 days ago. The move is supposed to kill two birds with one stone: boost both consumption and the morale of officials.
However, it not only won't achieve either objective but, instead, reveals
deeper structural problems within the Chinese governance system.
1. The primary cause of weak consumption lies in the plummeting incomes of private-sector workers. In contrast, most civil servants already benefit from low housing, food, and healthcare costs, which diminishes the
marginal utility of additional income. Moreover, due to the aggressive anti-corruption campaigns in recent years, officials are less inclined to spend conspicuously, even if they have more disposable income. Thus, efforts to boost consumption should target the private sector.
Not @realDonaldTrump.
Not the US Supreme Court.
Not the US Congress.
Instead, it might just be a former Chinese gymnast: Wu Liufang.
Wu, whose 6 million followers vanished overnight on Douyin—the Chinese version of TikTok—represents
a cautionary tale of control and censorship.
A former national team gymnast, Wu struggled to make a living after retiring. To survive, she turned to flirty dance videos on Douyin. Her account, briefly suspended in Nov, was reinstated on Dec 1, skyrocketing to over 6 million
followers without her posting a single new video.
But on Christmas Eve, Douyin erased all 6 million followers, citing “vulgar content.”
Here’s the twist: Wu wasn’t the one being punished. The real victims were the 6 million users who consciously chose to follow her, only to