Henry Gao Profile picture
Sep 15, 2020 4 tweets 2 min read Read on X
The decision is hardly surprising, but there are two interesting points in the panel report:
1. Whether the Phase 1 deal constitutes a mutually agreed solution;
2. whether the US tariffs could be justified under the public morals exception.
The first one was easy, while the second one is more tricky, as the US measures were allegedly taken against IP theft, misappropriation and unfair competition by China. The Panel ruled against the US, not because the US couldn't do so, but due to the lack of nexus and necessity.
I'm most amused by the argument by China that the criminalization of a conduct under domestic law doesn't really provide sufficient justification for invoking public morals exception. I wonder if its lawyers ever realized that this argu could be used against China in another case
But I guess China is not alone in that regard, as the other WTO Members, who joined as 3rd Parties, also seemed to be confused, at least judged from their submissions in the case.

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More from @henrysgao

Aug 15
Xi’s Feb speech to private firms is finally published—and it confirms everything I predicted before the meeting:
Private firms must fully align with China’s strategic competition vs the US. Image
Xi says private firms’ problems stem from external shocks (tech revolutions, trade restrictions) or internal missteps (over-diversification).

To Xi, the Party is not the problem, it is the solution.

Thus, firms must “unify their thoughts and actions with the Central Committee.” Image
Xi was even more explicit on measures to boost private firms: they should lead national science & tech projects, access major research infrastructure, and join state-led initiatives.

Exactly what I predicted 3 years ago in my @CIGI essay: private firms must be integrated into Image
Read 6 tweets
Aug 3
强烈推荐大家收听@guoguang_wu老师的这期访谈。吴老师不仅深入分析了中共之后中国的现实可能性,还提出了多项具体可行的民主转型策略。以下是我对访谈要点的总结:

1. 里应外合,如齐伐燕

“里应外合”有两重含义。一方面,反对力量应善用国际社会的影响力。当下内需疲弱、对外贸依赖日益加深的背景下
国际支持对于中国的民主转型更是至关重要。而近期以@milesyu10 教授为代表的美国保守派也开始认真探讨中共之后中国的可能性,则代表美国政经精英也开始关心这个议题,甚至为此做准备。我在此大胆预测:如果“汤武之事”在未来数年再度上演,那么包括马斯克在内的西方精英或明或暗表达支持也不足为奇。
@milesyu10 另一方面,反对派也应主动寻求与体制内开明派的接触与合作,以力借力,在不牺牲原则的前提下推动体制内改变。

中国历史上不乏里应外合夺取政权的例子,最近的是49年鼎革之变,远的则是当年被孟子视为正义之战的齐伐燕。当年的燕国内乱是由于燕王乱放权,禅位于相国。结合吴老师最近在 @bumingbaipod
Read 6 tweets
Aug 1
The new tariff numbers confirm what I wrote 4 months ago in my @commonplc piece “The Art of a Trade Deal”:

1. I stressed that these negotiations aren’t just about trade-security alignment would be a key factor. This is now explicit in the executive order, which repeatedly cites Image
Image
security considerations in setting final tariff rates.

2. I predicted countries would be grouped based on key criteria. That’s exactly what we see: broadly speaking, there are three groups—friends (10–15%), enemies (30%+), and frenemies (19–25%).
3. I anticipated aggressive transshipment controls targeting China. The executive order includes just that.

4. Perhaps most tellingly, the order hints what China—the last holdout from the Liberation Day Tariffs—is likely to face: at least 40%, matching the rate applied to Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
May 9
The US-UK trade deal is out—and it confirms most of my predictions in my @commonplc piece “The Art of a Trade Deal” 4 weeks ago:

1. Tariffs: The 10% tariff remains in place for now, but contrary to some interpretations, this doesn’t mean the UK failed to negotiate it down. The Image
Agreement explicitly states that both sides will enter negotiations to reduce tariff rates. As I noted, the likely landing point is around the US’s 3.4% rate-if the UK is willing to match it.

2. Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs): Just as I anticipated, NTBs is central to the next phase Image
For a developed country like the UK, the focus is on overregulation—technical barriers to trade, SPS measures, and similar restrictions—all explicitly referenced in the Agreement.

3. Supply Chains: I flagged this as a key issue, and the Agreement confirms it. It addresses supply Image
Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 10
A New BRI on the Horizon?

Today’s front page of People’s Daily features the Central Peripheral Work Conference—a major development, given this is only the second such meeting in the PRC’s 76-year history.

The first such meeting was in Oct 2013, when Xi launched the BRI, which Image
was elevated to a national strategy at the 3rd Plenum of the 18th CCP Central Committee held the following month.

As I argued in this @trade_review article 3 years ago, the BRI was China’s strategic response to US containment through the TPP, where the
cambridge.org/core/journals/…Image
@trade_review US tried to “make sure the US—and not countries like China—is the one writing this century’s rules for the world’s economy.”

But the TPP was killed.

Now, as @realDonaldTrump tries to rewrite the rules of global trade through the Reciprocal Tariff Policy, China is striking back.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 9
China today released a white paper titled “China's Position on Some Issues Concerning China-US Economic, Trade Relations.”

No, it’s not about setting the record straight as it claims.

It’s a retaliation wishlist—and a catalog of Beijing’s deepest trade fears. Image
1. Retaliation List:
• Banning U.S. services exports
• Halting IP protection for U.S. companies
• Imposing forced tech transfers
• Banning U.S. food and agricultural products
• Limiting access to China’s financial markets
• Devaluing the RMB Image
2. Fear List:
• Repeal of PNTR status
• Trade and investment restrictions on national security grounds
• Expanded export controls
• Section 301 tariffs
• Section 232 investigations
• Use of trade remedy tools (AD/CVD)
• Ending the de minimis exemption
• Reciprocal tariffs Image
Read 5 tweets

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