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Henry Gao Profile picture
Henry Gao
@henrysgao
Law prof. Tweets on China, trade, WTO. DM open. In Sept ’22, I predicted China to end zero-COVID policy in Oct ’22–Mar ’23. Most disagreed. It ended in Dec ’22.
2 subscribers
Apr 10 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
A New BRI on the Horizon?

Today’s front page of People’s Daily features the Central Peripheral Work Conference—a major development, given this is only the second such meeting in the PRC’s 76-year history.

The first such meeting was in Oct 2013, when Xi launched the BRI, which Image was elevated to a national strategy at the 3rd Plenum of the 18th CCP Central Committee held the following month.

As I argued in this @trade_review article 3 years ago, the BRI was China’s strategic response to US containment through the TPP, where the
cambridge.org/core/journals/…Image
Apr 9 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
China today released a white paper titled “China's Position on Some Issues Concerning China-US Economic, Trade Relations.”

No, it’s not about setting the record straight as it claims.

It’s a retaliation wishlist—and a catalog of Beijing’s deepest trade fears. Image 1. Retaliation List:
• Banning U.S. services exports
• Halting IP protection for U.S. companies
• Imposing forced tech transfers
• Banning U.S. food and agricultural products
• Limiting access to China’s financial markets
• Devaluing the RMB Image
Apr 8 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Why did Trump impose tariffs on Heard & McDonald Islands-home only to penguins, and British Indian Ocean Territory, which is occupied solely by military personnel?

No, it’s not because of internet domain names, as some speculated.

The answer is found in today’s People’s Daily Image editorial, “Pressure and threats are by no means the right way to deal with China,” which proudly declared that China maintains “import and export records with almost all countries and regions in the UN Standard Country or Area Codes for Statistical Use.”

And guess what? Among Image
Apr 7 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Three things you need to know about Liberation Day tariffs:

1. It’s not about the methodology.

The formula has been widely mocked, but that misses the point. The numbers aren’t meant to hold up in a PhD defense—they’re meant to shock, to create leverage. The more extreme the figure, the stronger the incentive for other countries to come to the negotiating table with the U.S.

2. It’s not even about the tariffs.
The real issue isn’t Vietnam’s tariff rates—it’s China’s trans-shipment tactics and its central role in global supply chains.

The aim is to
Apr 7 • 15 tweets • 6 min read
Amid Trump tariff chaos, People’s Daily published an editorial today urging everyone to “Focus on Doing Your Own Things”—a phrase that sums up China’s core strategy. This thread breaks it down.

It begins by acknowledging that U.S. tariffs do hurt, but “the sky can’t collapse.” Image That phrase—“the sky can’t collapse”—is notable. Mao used the exact same words in 1962 during a meeting of 7,000 top CCP officials, after a disastrous 13 years marked by the Great Famine and split with a world Superpower - the USSR.

Fittingly, this is also the 13th year of Xi’s Image
Apr 4 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Cambodia 49%, Laos 48%, Myanmar 45%, Vietnam 46%.

At first glance, these tariffs seem irrational — but let’s try to make some sense of them.

Put simply, these 4 countries got high tariffs because of the significant volume of transshipment from China to U.S. routed through them. So while the tariffs may not make traditional economic sense, they might make strategic sense — as a deterrent against serving as transshipment hubs for China.

In effect: allow transshipments, and your own exports get punished.

Is it crude?
Yes.

But could it be an effective
Feb 23 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Quick thoughts on America First Investment Policy:

1. It aims to usher in “America’s Golden Age”, which will be achieved through facilitation of “investment by US allies and partners” and “protect the US from new and evolving threats that can accompany foreign investment.” Image 2. Not only will it stop direct investment by China in the US, but also it will stop ivestment “through partner companies or investment funds in third countries.”

3. The way to solve the problem is:

A. Restricting Chinese investment “to take over US critical infrastructure” & Image
Feb 17 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Looking for policy signals from Xi’s meeting with private firms?

These 2 photos tell you everything:

1. 4 decades after launch of reforms, private businessmen are still only shown from behind - suggesting they remain a face the CCP prefers not to see, much like a chamber pot Image you avoid unless absolutely necessary.

2. With only one person talking—Xi—and private businessmen busy taking notes, the message is clear:

there is no real dialogue, only directives.
Jan 12 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
How Might the CCP Fall?

The fall of the CCP could occur in several ways, though some scenarios appear more plausible than others.

One possibility, akin to the USSR, is a top-down dissolution where the Leader announces its end. However, this seems increasingly unlikely under Xi. A more probable scenario might resemble the collapse of East Germany—an accidental unraveling triggered by unexpected events.

As China’s anti-corruption campaigns hang like a Damocles sword over officials, the fear of prosecution might push some to act preemptively:
For example,
Jan 1 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Bloomberg confirmed that China is raising salaries for civil servants, as I mentioned 3 days ago. The move is supposed to kill two birds with one stone: boost both consumption and the morale of officials.

However, it not only won't achieve either objective but, instead, reveals deeper structural problems within the Chinese governance system.

1. The primary cause of weak consumption lies in the plummeting incomes of private-sector workers. In contrast, most civil servants already benefit from low housing, food, and healthcare costs, which diminishes the
Dec 27, 2024 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Who’s Gonna Decide the Fate of @tiktok_us?

Not @realDonaldTrump.
Not the US Supreme Court.
Not the US Congress.

Instead, it might just be a former Chinese gymnast: Wu Liufang.

Wu, whose 6 million followers vanished overnight on Douyin—the Chinese version of TikTok—represents a cautionary tale of control and censorship.

A former national team gymnast, Wu struggled to make a living after retiring. To survive, she turned to flirty dance videos on Douyin. Her account, briefly suspended in Nov, was reinstated on Dec 1, skyrocketing to over 6 million
Dec 21, 2024 • 13 tweets • 1 min read
@guoguang_wu兄的精彩演讲探讨了后中共时代政治转型中必须面对的若干重要问题，这些问题也是当前国内外华人普遍关注的焦点。如何回答这些问题，将直接关系到中国民主化的成败。我对此有一些初步思考，在此抛砖引玉，与国光兄商榷。

一、经济增长
国光兄提到的第一个问题是后中共时代的经济增长前景。 过去四十多年，坊间普遍认为中共的合法性主要来自其推动经济增长的能力。但我认为将经济增长完全归功于中共统治是片面的。改革开放前20年的经济增长，实际上主要得益于中共放松了对社会在政治经济领域的管控，释放了民间经济的活力，举凡个体经济、乡镇企业，还是民营经济，莫不如此。
Oct 10, 2024 • 23 tweets • 5 min read
In an attempt to save its economy, China published a draft Private Economy Promotion Law today.

Will it save the ailing Chinese economy?

Highly unlikely.

Yet, this Law is still very useful, in that it reveals the many problems plaguing China’s private economy. Image 1. The very first Article states that the goal of the law is to “promote the healthy development of the private economy”.

But “healthy” according to whom? Should’t the private entrepreneurs be the ones to decide? Why should someone else decide this?

Jul 31, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
秦晖教授的精彩演讲回答了关于中国民主化的几个重大问题：

1，民主制度是否适用于像中国这种文化和宗教传统都与世界主要民主国家截然不同的国家?

民主化的实现并不以特定文化或宗教为先决条件，基督教、君主制可以促成民主化，儒学同样可以也可以促进民主化。

2，像中国这样长期实行社会主义、 自由传统薄弱的国家，是否能够实现民主化？

无论是左派还是右派，都可以促进民主化：左派可以要求增加政府责任，右派可以要求限制政府权力。而与之相反，在中国，那些只要求政府扩权、却反对相应扩大政府责任的左派都是伪左派；同理，那些不要求限制政府权力、只要求限制政府责任的右派也是伪右派。
Jun 29, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Ban on forced transfer of source code is one of the key obligations in the CPTPP. It has long been regarded as one of the main obstacles for China’s accession, with many claiming that China would never accept the obligation.

But this changed today with a State Council document. In this document called “Notice of several measures to promote institutional opening-up in free trade pilot zones and pilot free trade port in line with the international high standards”, the State Council states that the relevant authorities shall not
Jun 29, 2023 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
China adopted its first Foreign Relations Law yesterday.

Why the law now & what are the implications for foreign businesses? I explained in this @SCMPNews story.

‘Rule of law’: China adopts new legislation to help combat foreign sanctions via @scmpnewssc.mp/kiqq?utm_sourc… In addition to my quotes along with @georgemagnus1 below in the story, I'd like to point to the following features of the law which will make it harder for businesses, both Chinese and foreign, to operate:
Mar 24, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Key changes in the State Council Working Rules:
1. The guiding thoughts section deleted all previous references to Marxism, Leninism, Mao, Deng, Three Represent, & Scientific Development Outlook, and keeps only XJP Thoughts on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in the New Era 2. All major decisions and problems MUST be reported to the CCP Central Committee first.
Feb 15, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Xi's speech at the Central Economic Works conference in Dec is published today.

Titled "Several Major Issues in Current Economic Work", it puts the first issue as expanding domestic consumption, i.e., "Prioritize the recovery and expansion of consumption... It is necessary to ... innovate consumption scenarios, and fully release consumption potential. It is necessary to increase the consumption capacity of low- and middle-income residents who have a high propensity to consume but are greatly affected by the epidemic."
Jan 22, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
New Chinese TV drama #三体电视剧 (Three Body) is interesting to watch, not only because it is based on a @HugoAwards-winning novel, but because it helps to understand China’s highly-confrontational wolf warrior diplomacy which kept emphasizing "struggle". As stated in the first episode by a Chinese general, the fact that we humans have survived from the Neolithic age until today without major catastrophes is a pure coincidence.

Similarly, the Chinese leadership believes that the peaceful period since 1978 is a pure coincidence.
Jan 18, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
In case anyone thinks that the tech crackdown is over with Didi allowed back on the app stores, China has just announced that a national ride-hailing platform will be online soon, and it will cover 90% of the market capacity, which, btw, was Didi's market before the crackdown. Why a national platform?
Because data, esp geolocation data, is deemed too sensitive to be left to private firms, as I explained 2 years ago:
Jan 12, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Who is China’s new US Ambassador Xie Feng?

Hints can be drawn from the Party Class he gave last Oct entitled “Study and implement XJP Thought on Diplomacy, Promote Big Power Diplomacy with Chinese characteristics”, where he spoke on how to “stick to principles, dare to fight”. He described the three major encounters with @JoeBiden administration in military terms, and called the Mar 2021 Anchorage meeting an “ambush” where “the US ignored the basic rules of decency and hospitality & went beyond the fixed agenda to interfere in China’s domestic affairs”