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Henry Gao Profile picture
Henry Gao
@henrysgao
law professor. Tweet on China, trade, WTO etc. All tweets are in my personal capacity and do not represent the views of institutions I'm affiliated with.
2 subscribers
Dec 21 • 13 tweets • 1 min read
@guoguang_wu兄的精彩演讲探讨了后中共时代政治转型中必须面对的若干重要问题，这些问题也是当前国内外华人普遍关注的焦点。如何回答这些问题，将直接关系到中国民主化的成败。我对此有一些初步思考，在此抛砖引玉，与国光兄商榷。

一、经济增长
国光兄提到的第一个问题是后中共时代的经济增长前景。 过去四十多年，坊间普遍认为中共的合法性主要来自其推动经济增长的能力。但我认为将经济增长完全归功于中共统治是片面的。改革开放前20年的经济增长，实际上主要得益于中共放松了对社会在政治经济领域的管控，释放了民间经济的活力，举凡个体经济、乡镇企业，还是民营经济，莫不如此。
Oct 10 • 23 tweets • 5 min read
In an attempt to save its economy, China published a draft Private Economy Promotion Law today.

Will it save the ailing Chinese economy?

Highly unlikely.

Yet, this Law is still very useful, in that it reveals the many problems plaguing China’s private economy. Image 1. The very first Article states that the goal of the law is to “promote the healthy development of the private economy”.

But “healthy” according to whom? Should’t the private entrepreneurs be the ones to decide? Why should someone else decide this?

Jul 31, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
秦晖教授的精彩演讲回答了关于中国民主化的几个重大问题：

1，民主制度是否适用于像中国这种文化和宗教传统都与世界主要民主国家截然不同的国家?

民主化的实现并不以特定文化或宗教为先决条件，基督教、君主制可以促成民主化，儒学同样可以也可以促进民主化。

2，像中国这样长期实行社会主义、 自由传统薄弱的国家，是否能够实现民主化？

无论是左派还是右派，都可以促进民主化：左派可以要求增加政府责任，右派可以要求限制政府权力。而与之相反，在中国，那些只要求政府扩权、却反对相应扩大政府责任的左派都是伪左派；同理，那些不要求限制政府权力、只要求限制政府责任的右派也是伪右派。
Jun 29, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Ban on forced transfer of source code is one of the key obligations in the CPTPP. It has long been regarded as one of the main obstacles for China’s accession, with many claiming that China would never accept the obligation.

But this changed today with a State Council document. In this document called “Notice of several measures to promote institutional opening-up in free trade pilot zones and pilot free trade port in line with the international high standards”, the State Council states that the relevant authorities shall not
Jun 29, 2023 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
China adopted its first Foreign Relations Law yesterday.

Why the law now & what are the implications for foreign businesses? I explained in this @SCMPNews story.

‘Rule of law’: China adopts new legislation to help combat foreign sanctions via @scmpnewssc.mp/kiqq?utm_sourc… In addition to my quotes along with @georgemagnus1 below in the story, I'd like to point to the following features of the law which will make it harder for businesses, both Chinese and foreign, to operate:
Mar 24, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Key changes in the State Council Working Rules:
1. The guiding thoughts section deleted all previous references to Marxism, Leninism, Mao, Deng, Three Represent, & Scientific Development Outlook, and keeps only XJP Thoughts on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in the New Era 2. All major decisions and problems MUST be reported to the CCP Central Committee first.
Feb 15, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Xi's speech at the Central Economic Works conference in Dec is published today.

Titled "Several Major Issues in Current Economic Work", it puts the first issue as expanding domestic consumption, i.e., "Prioritize the recovery and expansion of consumption... It is necessary to ... innovate consumption scenarios, and fully release consumption potential. It is necessary to increase the consumption capacity of low- and middle-income residents who have a high propensity to consume but are greatly affected by the epidemic."
Jan 22, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
New Chinese TV drama #三体电视剧 (Three Body) is interesting to watch, not only because it is based on a @HugoAwards-winning novel, but because it helps to understand China’s highly-confrontational wolf warrior diplomacy which kept emphasizing "struggle". As stated in the first episode by a Chinese general, the fact that we humans have survived from the Neolithic age until today without major catastrophes is a pure coincidence.

Similarly, the Chinese leadership believes that the peaceful period since 1978 is a pure coincidence.
Jan 18, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
In case anyone thinks that the tech crackdown is over with Didi allowed back on the app stores, China has just announced that a national ride-hailing platform will be online soon, and it will cover 90% of the market capacity, which, btw, was Didi's market before the crackdown. Why a national platform?
Because data, esp geolocation data, is deemed too sensitive to be left to private firms, as I explained 2 years ago:
Jan 12, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Who is China’s new US Ambassador Xie Feng?

Hints can be drawn from the Party Class he gave last Oct entitled “Study and implement XJP Thought on Diplomacy, Promote Big Power Diplomacy with Chinese characteristics”, where he spoke on how to “stick to principles, dare to fight”. He described the three major encounters with @JoeBiden administration in military terms, and called the Mar 2021 Anchorage meeting an “ambush” where “the US ignored the basic rules of decency and hospitality & went beyond the fixed agenda to interfere in China’s domestic affairs”
Nov 7, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Great story from @WSJ confirming my earlier predictions
that China is on the road to reopening. But I do not think that the reopening will be slow with no fixed timeline as mentioned in the article.
wsj.com/articles/china… I agree that the bureaucrats have various concerns, but these concerns do not matter as I have been saying.

To understand how reopening would happen, we only need to understand the action pattern of one person.
Oct 18, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Interesting comparison but I'd caution that this comparison is not accurate as it's based on the full-text version of the 18th v orally-delivered version of the 20th. If you compare the full-text version of the 20th the results are different. For example, reform appeared 48 times while open appeared 28 times, rather than 16 and 14 times as listed in the chart.

But I'm always skeptical of the value of simple word frequency comparisons. As I warned on @VOAChinese program last night, bigger problem is that Xi has been putting new wine in the same old bottle
Sep 7, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Want to know China's policies for the next 5 years (or maybe longer)?

Just look at the meeting summary of the 27th meeting of the Central Committee for Comprehensively Deepening Reforms, which passed 5 major documents: 1.”Opinions on Improving the New Whole-nation-efforts System for Tackling Key Problems in Key Core Technologies under the Conditions of a Socialist Market Economy",
2”Several Opinions on Deepening the Reform of the Academician System",
3”Opinions on Comprehensively
Aug 28, 2022 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
For a long time, the inward-looking “闭关锁国” (Seclusion and Lockdown) policy in the Ming and Qing Dynasties has been regarded as one of the main reasons for China’s decline in the 500 years before 1949. However, a new paper tries to challenge that view. Image Titled <A New Probe into the Problem of "Seclusion and Lockdown of the Country" in Ming & Qing>, the paper argues that the policy shall be called “自主限关” (Autonomous Self-restriction), which is “intended to safeguard national sovereignty & prevent Western colonial aggression”. Image
Jul 9, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Top headline on People's Daily today:
"Xi Jinping Sends Message of Condolences to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the Death of Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe".

Now try to read between the lines: The message reads:
"Xi Jinping expressed deep condolences over the untimely death of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and condolences to the relatives of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe".

1. The words used are 深切哀悼, or "deep condolences", which is one notch down from
Jul 9, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Patriotism is only meaningful when it is the result of active choice.

If you are taking a long-distance coach and your only meal option is some random hole-in-the-wall place chosen by the bus driver, you are not supposed to love the restaurant. But, if you are self-driving and have your lunch break at a place carefully researched and chosen, of course you are more likely to like the restaurant.

In this sense, the patriotism of an immigrant is usually more authentic than the one who is born into a country, unless the
Apr 29, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
豆瓣再次挥刀自宫，不知道这样鸡鸡复鸡鸡，还能活多久。

干脆未雨绸缪，把自己的影评保存一下：
1. 大象席地而坐 ImageImage 2. 太阳照常升起 (2007) Image
Mar 5, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Russia saved China 30 years ago. Will it save China again?

1. According to the uncensored version of Deng's 1992 Southern Tour speeches, the collapse of the Soviet Union was the "direct cause" for his tour.
cnbnews.tumblr.com/post/182972515… Image Without economic reform, the economy will collapse, and, in Deng's own words: "The Soviet Union's Today is Our Tomorrow." Image
Jan 8, 2022 • 20 tweets • 7 min read
Thanks to @GeringTuvia for alerting us to Jiang Shigong's recent papers on trade and human rights. I'm not a big fan of Jiang, but I'd still recommend everyone to read the papers for two reasons:
1. Jiang's 2010 book on HK has deeply influenced China's view and policies there, as reported by @ChuBailiang in his excellent story on "The Chinese Thinkers Behind Xi’s Hard Line" in the @nytimes 2 years ago.
nytimes.com/2020/08/02/wor…
Dec 25, 2021 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Shen Haixiong is the hottest (unspeakable) name on Chinese social media these days, hotter than even the other unspeakable name.

His rise to notoriety is due to his rumored (now confirmed) marriage to Tong Liya, aka "Princess of Xinjiang", but who is he?

Mystery unveiled here. 1. He is the newsman.

Having worked in Xinhua for 26 years, Shen climbed steadily through the ranks to Vice President of the state news agency. His career path is eerily similar to the disgraced former Propaganda Czar Lu Wei, who is celebrating Christmas in prison right now.
Dec 14, 2021 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
“What is Xi’s vision for Chinese economic system?” This's the question puzzling China-watchers for the past 9 years.

Look no further than this little-known article from 20 years ago-“Re-visiting the development of Socialist market economy”–published when Xi was Gov of Fujian. Key summaries:
1.Xi argues that market economy is just a way to run the economy, rather than patent to Capitalism. The so-called concept of “Socialist Planned Economy” is just an idea forced upon Marx by later generations, and a “big joke in history”.