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Liam Donovan Profile picture
@LPDonovan
Sep 15, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Yeah, the biggest shock of all this has been how little things have changed amid profound upheaval in every facet of our lives.
Which goes back to this point--we have largely taken these seismic events and fit them into our existing worldview.
OTOH, that 3pt shift in the popular vote is the difference between an electoral rout and a nailbiter, so even marginal movement is huge.
And maybe more importantly for Rs (and perhaps for a Biden agenda), could easily be the difference between a trifecta and Cocaine Mitch being the most powerful man in Washington.

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More from @LPDonovan

Liam Donovan Profile picture
Oct 2, 2024
Here's an issue that is totally unknown to all but the true sickos, a situation that stands to turn tens of millions of Americans into unwitting felons in the next 90 days. And now it's showing up in OHSEN.
Classic case of a well-intentioned (or at least well-named) law that no one in the federal govt has bothered to inform the citizenry of, despite creating affirmative new requirements on any owner/partner/officer of a small business, for profit or non-profit alike, effective 1/1.
Realizing how insane it would be to let this law go into effect with no possibility of compliance--and w/ CTA itself facing constitutionality questions--the House actually passed a one year filing reprieve more then ten months ago, 420-1 (you read that right.) Image
Read 7 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
Jun 22, 2024
First time I have seen this tactic. Pennsylvania Values is a super pac funded almost entirely by the building trades that was most active in 2018 the last time Casey was up, spending $1.1M against Barletta. Spent another $285k in 2020 against Trump.
Full spot here. The message is... not subtle. But without a firm grasp of the subtext you'd have no idea this was coming from the left.
Interesting
Read 4 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
May 10, 2024
Respectfully this is totally backwards in my experience
Most of DC is increasingly inured to a Trump win and it's a GOP House that's unthinkable. Lotta compartmentalization.
People aren't ready to hear this, but if the polls are to be believed, the mode outcome is a GOP trifecta. If they're not, it's a Biden win with a Dem House and GOP Senate. Trump presiding over divided govt is a non-zero--and fascinating!--but relatively unlikely scenario.
Read 9 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
May 22, 2023
Our debt limit state-of-play conversation on @TheLobbyShopPod ICYMI: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…
On the time crunch, and the utility of an interim deal to do a deal.
On the structure of a deal, particularly the "limit" piece as that re-emerges ad the central point of contention
Read 4 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
May 19, 2023
Because this seems to be CW at this point, let's be clear--there's nothing easy about pulling together permitting reform language that both parties can support in the immediate term. Spending side is far simpler (and more necessary) to resolve. Image
Otoh, this is an interesting flag to plant. If the bar is simply not spending more than FY23 that's the best deal Ds were ever going to get regardless. And it's the most open acknowledgement yet that nobody is prepared for a rollback borne entirely by NDD. Image
Permitting for Rs: NEPA reform, 401, lands, oil & gas leasing
Permitting for Ds: Transmission, federal role in siting, cost allocation

Hard to imagine Ds allowing any of column A w/o any of column B, and both aren't happening at this juncture. At best you get a deal to do a deal
Read 7 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
May 18, 2023
Tell me you've lost the plot without telling me you've lost the plot.

(I kid. Not picking on Doc here but this is the wrongheaded view of most of this website.)
A deal isn't done until it's done, nor passed until it's passed, but this thinking betrays a misunderstanding of the dynamics at play, and a failure to adjust to what happened on and since Jan 7.
I really should write this up, because too few people grok this, but I got into it in my discussion with @MichaelRWarren a few weeks back.
Read 7 tweets

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