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Liam Donovan Profile picture
@LPDonovan
Sep 15, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Yeah, the biggest shock of all this has been how little things have changed amid profound upheaval in every facet of our lives.
Which goes back to this point--we have largely taken these seismic events and fit them into our existing worldview.
OTOH, that 3pt shift in the popular vote is the difference between an electoral rout and a nailbiter, so even marginal movement is huge.
And maybe more importantly for Rs (and perhaps for a Biden agenda), could easily be the difference between a trifecta and Cocaine Mitch being the most powerful man in Washington.

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More from @LPDonovan

Liam Donovan Profile picture
May 22, 2023
Our debt limit state-of-play conversation on @TheLobbyShopPod ICYMI: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…
On the time crunch, and the utility of an interim deal to do a deal.
On the structure of a deal, particularly the "limit" piece as that re-emerges ad the central point of contention
Read 4 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
May 19, 2023
Because this seems to be CW at this point, let's be clear--there's nothing easy about pulling together permitting reform language that both parties can support in the immediate term. Spending side is far simpler (and more necessary) to resolve. Image
Otoh, this is an interesting flag to plant. If the bar is simply not spending more than FY23 that's the best deal Ds were ever going to get regardless. And it's the most open acknowledgement yet that nobody is prepared for a rollback borne entirely by NDD. Image
Permitting for Rs: NEPA reform, 401, lands, oil & gas leasing
Permitting for Ds: Transmission, federal role in siting, cost allocation

Hard to imagine Ds allowing any of column A w/o any of column B, and both aren't happening at this juncture. At best you get a deal to do a deal
Read 7 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
May 18, 2023
Tell me you've lost the plot without telling me you've lost the plot.

(I kid. Not picking on Doc here but this is the wrongheaded view of most of this website.)
A deal isn't done until it's done, nor passed until it's passed, but this thinking betrays a misunderstanding of the dynamics at play, and a failure to adjust to what happened on and since Jan 7.
I really should write this up, because too few people grok this, but I got into it in my discussion with @MichaelRWarren a few weeks back.
Read 7 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
May 18, 2023
To Ben's point, the deal is there if people want to get to yes. When the poles are howling that's usually a signal that something is afoot in between. And as it happens, angry progs/HFCers are a feature to the respective rank and file types. Key will be Rs carrying their weight.
Remember--none of these people, on either side, were ever going to support a deal. Registering their dissatisfaction was just a matter of time. To the extent their public comments capture their true angst, this is them going through the motions and playing their part.
Astonaut meme here, but the universal key is everyone feeling like they fought the fight as hard and as well as it could have been waged. That nothing significant was given away/left on the table. That's the threshold, not whether opposers oppose.
Read 4 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
Jan 11, 2023
twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
I don't want to be overly doomer-ish because I do think something will give, but it takes a reaction from the folks currently winking at the camera. Consider this peace of mind is predicated on a process available 2 days/mo after 30 days of ripening & a 7 legislative day layover.
Early, sustained discharge effort can apply pressure and create a failsafe should worse come to worst. It is a terrible option for what is sure to be an urgent and fluid situation that requires a nimble response, legislative or otherwise.
Read 10 tweets
Liam Donovan Profile picture
Jan 9, 2023
Shot:
Chaser:
Market wise guys are hopelessly inured to DC dysfunction to the point where there will eventually be a lot of gratuitous pain.
Read 4 tweets

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