A further 3,105 #COVID19 cases in the UK over the past 24 hours. UK trajectory following pretty much bang in line with France & Spain. Should we be panicking already...? Quick thread (and short answer: no)
As in Mar/Apr, UK's epidemic seems to be following closely France & Spain. And what we are learning from there is that cases & deaths are rising but much less rapidly than in Apr/May. Just compare the death trajectories: Spain this time vs last time (the two yellow lines here)
Side note: why am I using deaths to compare this episode with last time around👆? Because last time there was so little testing that the existing case figs don't give a good indication of the prevalence of the disease. So grisly as it is, deaths are a better yardstick
Sidenote 2: since case data from Mar/Apr wasn't v reliable, a better measure is % of positive cases. Compare these charts & u see what I mean. Look at cases alone and it looks like we are facing a bigger epidemic than in March. Look at positivity and we're well down on then.
Now it's possible cases may yet accelerate in Spain and France but we aren't seeing it. Latest numbers out of Madrid this pm: 9437 cases in past 24 hours. Sounds scary, but if you average out cases over the past week they're creeping up, not catapulting higher. That's v important
Last time around the prevalence of the disease (as best as we could determine) was doubling every 3/4 days. This time around it's doubling every 15 or so days. If you're wondering what kind of a difference that makes, it's enormous. Bigger than the gap between these two lines
Last time around, the trajectory of deaths seemed to follow the trajectory of cases. But look at the gap between black line (deaths) and white line (COVID positivity rate) this time around. The link seems to have been broken - though it's too early to be absolutely sure.
None of this is to dispute that hospitalisations and deaths are rising in Spain & France. But so far not as fast as in the spring. Exponentiality is what matters here. We need to keep remembering that. And keeping an eye on the data - as it's not impossible it worsens
Some conclusions: 1. UK cases of #COVID19 will continue to rise. Will prob be 10k within a few wks 2. Hospitalisations will rise 3. Deaths will rise 4. But the increases should, if it's anything like Spain/France, be gradual 5. These are ingredients for caution - but not panic
There are crucial provisos. Spain's cases seem to be coming under control not in the absence of action but following measures imposed by govt. In Spain they have limited gatherings much like the UK via the "rule of 6" (their rule is, I think, 10). They are not "letting it rip"
Second, nothing in the above thread precludes the possibility of things going worse here than they are in France/Spain. If anyone is telling you with confidence they know what's going to happen, they DON'T.
Including me. I'm just keeping an eye on the numbers 🤓
Is it time to panic about the rise in #COVID19? Here’s a video which almost answers that question. It’s 14 minutes and the powers-that-be at @skynews say they’d be amazed if anyone kept watching beyond 3m. So now’s your opportunity to prove the MSM wrong!
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🧵Some thoughts re inflation.
Not the data today, but two deep issues we should prob spend more time thinking about. 1. While economists and policymakers may have convinced themselves that the cost of living squeeze is over, for millions of households, it doesn't feel that way.
The key thing to remember here is that when economists talk about inflation what they're really talking about is the ANNUAL RATE at which a basket of goods and services changes price. And certainly, that rate is much lower than the 2022 peaks...
But, as I say, what that number is is simply looking at the difference in the LEVEL of prices over the past year. This chart is that level. (The actual consumer price index!).
And yes, look over the year to May and it's up 3.4%.
🧵Why, barely 24 hours after the Spending Review, is everyone already going on about tax rises?
Are they REALLY coming?
Or is this an "incoherent argument", as one leading minister calls it?
Well here's a thread explaining what's really going on here.
Bear with me...
First things first.
Key thing to remember is that the main job of HMT is to generate enough money, mostly via taxes (left hand bar here), to finance all its spending (right hand bar).
If that left hand bar isn't high enough, we have to borrow to fill the gap.
That's the deficit!
This week's Spending Review was about the right hand column, obvs. But not ALL of the column.
Actually more than half of govt spending is on stuff that WASN'T covered by the spending review - on benefits, debt interest, pensions etc. It's called "annually managed expenditure"
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You may recall a spate of stories a few years ago about appalling working conditions & abysmally low pay in Leicester's clothes factories.
The hope was those stories would shame businesses into improving working conditions.
But here's what ACTUALLY happened next...
👇
Instead of staying in Leicester, most brands abandoned it & shifted production to N Africa & S Asia.
Today Britain's biggest centre of textile & apparel manufacture is battling the threat of extinction.
It's a mostly untold economic story we've spent recent months documenting
Once upon a time Leicester was the beating heart of UK clothes manufacturing.
The city was dotted with factories making clothes for big name brands.
Now, according to one estimate, the number of clothes factories has dropped from 1500 in 2017 to under 100 this year. A 95% fall.
How big a deal is the new trade agreement unveiled between the US and the UK? Here are some initial thoughts.
Start with this: this is total UK exports to the US over the past 5yrs: £273bn. Right now most of this will face a 10% tariff. Some things (eg cars) face 25% extra
Let's break down that total. The biggest chunk is cars. Just under £30bn. That's covered under the agreement. So too are steel/aluminium exports. Much smaller at £2.7bn...
These sectors will benefit from special deals (though much of the detail still remains vague).
Rolls Royce will apparently get tariff free access for its jet engines. That mostly helps Boeing, but also Rolls Royce. Jet engines comprise a surprisingly large chunk of UK exports to the US, about £17.3bn. So let's shade that red too...
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The Chinese owners of British Steel say they are now considering shutting their blast furnaces and end steelmaking at Scunthorpe in early June - only a few months away.
It would mean an end of virgin steelmaking in the country that invented it during the industrial revolution
British Steel say the main question now is timing: whether the operations will close in June, in September or later.
It says tariffs are one of the reasons the blast furnaces are "no longer financially sustainable".
Press release 👇
The news means @jreynoldsMP faces two interlocking crises in the coming months: 1. The imposition of US tariffs on an ever growing segment of British exports 2. The end of virgin steelmaking (the UK would be the first G7 country to face this watershed moment).
This is big stuff
Donald Trump just announced 25% tariffs on anyone importing oil from Venezuela.
This is odd.
Because the country importing the most crude from Venezuela is... the US.
Capital Economics chart of Ven oil exports by Capital Economics via @rbrtrmstrng
But it raises a bigger point
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Why does the US import so much oil from Venezuela?
Mainly for the same reason it imports so much oil from Canada.
And no it's not just because they're close.
It's because most US refineries are set up to refine the kind of oil they have in Venezuela and Canada.
To understand this it helps to recall that crude oil is actually a broad term. There are LOTS of different varieties of crude - a function of the geology of where the oil formed and the organic ingredients that went into it millions of years ago.
It's called "crude" for a reason