I seriously doubt a prosecutor would want to charge Bolton for what's in his book. Even if it contained classified, the fact that the lead NSC classification official told him she did not believe it contained classified info would be enough to tank a successful prosecution. 1/
Instead it looks like DOJ may be focused on going after Bolton for what he shared with S&S in the early draft manuscripts, which presumably contained much more class info.  This may be facially legitimate since it's an unauthorized disclosure, but it would be unprecedented. /2
To my knowledge DOJ has never prosecuted someone for sharing with their publisher (or a ghost author) too early in the pre-publication review process. The dirty secret is that this happens ALL THE TIME, esp. with former senior officials, and the gov't turns a blind eye to it.  /3
To be clear, the government tells authors not to share drafts with publishers or co-authors prior to clearance, but it still happens ALL THE TIME and the gov't doesn't do anything.  These former officials aren't writing these books on their own. /4
Thus, going after Bolton for disclosing classified info to his publisher would be unprecedented and would raise serious selective prosecution issues (combined with everything Trump has said), even if that's normally a losing defense. /5
Also curious to know whether DOJ followed the media guidelines in issuing a subpoena to S&S for its communications with Botlon. It would depend on whether DOJ considered them to be "news media" under its regs. Arguably they are, but DOJ presumably determined otherwise.  /6
If Simon & Shuster was considered to be "news media," Barr would have to sign off on the subpoena, and DOJ would need to show that it couldn't obtain the records from other sources (otherwise they would be cumulative and not essential as required by regs).  /7
Here, Bolton should have copies of what he shared with Simon & Shuster -- so unless he destroyed them, DOJ could get them from him without going to S&S.  This leads me to believe DOJ is not applying the media guidelines, not faithfully at least. /8
Although the possibility that Bolton may have destroyed those records and therefore Simon & Shuster is the best source should not be completely dismissed. /9
To be clear: Bolton has acted in a dishonorable and inappropriate manner, both with impeachment and in the publication of his book. But disgorgement of profits is the appropriate remedy for the latter, unless we are going to start prosecuting every former who does the same thing.

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