"During the 2004 campaign, legendary ad man Lionel Sosa was leading Hispanic strategy for George W. Bush, and Maria Cardona was spearheading NDN's $6 million Hispanic Project, an effort that sought to target specific segments of the Latino community" newsweek.com/cavalry-coming…
Any story that looking at the Hispanic vote needs to differentiate between Cubans/Puerto Ricans in Florida from the heavily Mexican-American Southwest/West; and decide whether it's an Hispanic problem or a late deciding, disinterested youth problem.
In 2018 there was a divergence in the Hispanic vote. Dems gained ground nationally but lost ground in Florida.
There is something going on Florida we need to better understand.
Biden's strength in AZ, CO, NV, TX suggest Mexican-Americans are holding.
Don't trust a lot of polling of Hispanics that we see. Many polls have very small sub-samples, and if they aren't using truly bi-lingual instruments can have too few Spanish speakers, recent immigrants. Good polls of Hispanics are expensive, hard to do. So a lot of junk.
So, I don't know if Joe Biden has an Hispanic problem. Some of the chatter around this feels like BS. What we know, and this is true for all groups, is that if you don't spend to talk to, engage a community they will under-perform. Critical Biden end strong w/Hispanics, youth.
For all the Florida chatter, in this new Monmouth Florida poll, Biden is beating Trump with Florida's Hispanics 58/32 (+26). In 2016 Clinton won them by 27 points, 62/35.
So in this poll Trump is behind his 2016 Hispanic share by 3 pts. Not good.
In other news it is now undeniable that there is a Russian fifth column operating in United States trying to destroy the country and the global democracy movement from within.
In the last week Kennedy made it clear he is seeking to become a leader of this fifth column.
That MAGA is a Russian fifth column is now being openly discussed by Republican leaders themselves as they look on in horror at what has become of the party of Reagan.
Could RFK have constructed a more pro-Russian position?
“This is the reality that every American Citizen faces — from Ed Snowden, to Julian Assange to the J6 activists sitting in a Washington DC jail cell stripped of their Constitutional liberties.”
With another roaring jobs report - 303,000!!! - my monthly jobs tracker now comes in at:
33.8m jobs = 16 yrs Clinton, Obama
15.2m jobs = 3+ yrs Biden
1.9m jobs = 16 yrs 2 Bushes, Trump
8 times more Biden jobs than last 3 R Presidents COMBINED. 1/
The rate of job growth has been 40 times higher under Biden than it was under the last 3 GOP Presidents. 40 times. Last month's 303,000 jobs would be 2 1/2 years of job growth under Republicans. 2/
Since 1989 51 million jobs have been created in America. 49 million - 96% - of those have been created under Democratic Presidents. Essentially all of them, over 3 and half decades. 3/
Morning after Michigan thread:
- Biden wins big, breaks 80%, uncommitted at a very modest 13%. Opposition to Biden foreign policy limited, but intense.
- Trump underperforms public polling again, 4th state in a row. Trump/RNC are struggling. More 👇1/
For Dems, big takeaway - there just isn't a big backlash in party against Biden's handling of Israel-Hamas:
- Uncommitted got 11% vs Obama in 2012, 13% vs Biden
- In Econ/YouGov Dems approve of Biden for pol 71-21, 18-29s year olds give good marks. 2/
As @Lawrence and I discussed last night on @TheLastWord, Dems are having a real debate about foreign policy right now, and that's healthy. What democracies do.
Biden has work to do to get his coalition together, as all candidates do 8-9 months out. 3/
Stop calling Trump a strong candidate. He
- isn't leading or favored in national polling 👇
- was outraised by Nikki Haley last month
- is burning through $$$$
- underperformed NH polls by 10-15 pts
- is losing all his court cases, badly
- his party is broke, struggling
- NY-3!
The GOP = unprecedented shitshow:
- got beat in 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023, struggling in early 2024
- leadership ousted, dozens indicted
- broke, burning cash
- House Members abandoning ship
- flacking Russia disinfo, serially betraying the country
- nominee is bat shit crazy
THIS IS A MASSIVE SCANDAL. It’s an unbelievable betrayal of the country. Media has to stop covering these guys as any thing other than rancid Russian fifth columnists.
Dems have won more votes in 7 of past 8 Presidential elections, the best popular vote run of an American political party in history.
In the last 4 Pres elections, we've averaged 51%, Rs 46%. It's our best run since FDR's 4 elections 80+ yrs ago. 2/ hopiumchronicles.com/p/the-democrat…
In 2016 Trump barely prevailed, even with:
- extraordinary intervention by Russia
- decapitation of the DNC
- FBI's unprecedented intervention
He never was a strong candidate, with a special connection to the electorate. Polls weren't wrong - Comey changed election at end. 3/