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Trita Parsi Profile picture
@tparsi
Sep 15, 2020 • 7 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
/THREAD/
Hate to rain on Pompeo, Bibi and MBZ’s parade, but here’s why this “deal” will intensify tensions and give another lease on life for America’s counterproductive military presence in the Middle East. >>
2. Contrary to Pompeo's talking points, this will not create peace or make it easier to bring home US troops from the region. The focus on the “Iran threat” is designed to lock the US into a Cold/Hot War in the Middle East for decades to come. >>
(newrepublic.com/article/159010…)
3. We will be hearing endless arguments going forward - from many different sides - that now that the Israelis and the "Arabs" (though its only UAE and Bahrain) - have united, the US is obligated to support them against the “Iranian menace.” >>
4. This new “obligation” will keep the US bound to their ever-growing security demands while forging a bipolar structure that will cement, not resolve conflicts. And as we know, blind US support has incentivized US partners to be more reckless and warprone
quincyinst.org/2020/07/17/end…
5. The defense, pro-Likud, and pro-Saudi lobbies will unite around the goal of keeping US forces in the region in order to protect Israel and “moderate” Arabs against Iran. Keeping them there will no longer be endless war, it will be the protection of the “peace.”
6. This will make it even more difficult to move the region towards a new, inclusive security architecture - which actually has the potential of offering real peace and stability. And if we follow QI’s recommendations, it would also bring US troops home.
7. In short, the American people just got played. Because America will now be stuck in the Middle East instead of coming home.

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More from @tparsi

Trita Parsi Profile picture
Oct 21, 2023
A 🧵on Israel’s current strategy

The last pages of @ronenbergman’s book on Israel’s assassination policy are quite prescient. He describes how Israel's head of the Mossad, Meir Dagan, underwent a “profound change in attitude” in favor of true peace >>

amazon.com/Rise-Kill-Firs…
2. “Dagan, along with Sharon and most of their colleagues in Israel's defense establishment and intelligence community, believed for many years that force could solve everything. That the right way to confront the Israeli-Arab dispute was by separating the Arab from his head.”>>
3. “But this was a delusion. And a dangerously common one at that." Mossad and the Israeli intelligence agencies were remarkably successful - tactically. >>
Read 9 tweets
Trita Parsi Profile picture
Oct 15, 2023
🧵US is way closer to getting dragged into a larger war than most realize. Paradoxically, we’re rushing towards war despite none of the main actors seeking it. It’s in this context that Biden’s prevention of de-escalation in Israel/Gaza is so problematic>>
responsiblestatecraft.org/biden-ceasefir…
2. There is little to suggest that Israel was preparing for or planning a larger war. And while it may be tempted to go after Hezbollah later, it is not seeking a two-front war. Nor does Hezbollah appear to favor escalation. Same goes for Iran, Saudi, Egypt etc. >>
3. Finally, don't believe Biden wants a larger war. Between Ukraine & Taiwan, Biden simply cant afford a broader Mideast war. The administration’s focus — however misguided —has instead been on a normalization agreement between Israel & Saudi. War has not been on Biden’s agenda>>
Read 16 tweets
Trita Parsi Profile picture
Oct 6, 2023
🧵Difficult to think of anyone deserving the Nobel Prize more than #NargesMohammadi!! It’s a major blow against the repressive government in Iran - but also against Diaspora figures who have slandered Mohammadi and sought to hijack the women’s movement in Iran. >> Image
2. It’s a recognition of her relentless AND PRINCIPLED work for human rights, but also that of ordinary women who continue to struggle for their rights in Iran. It puts a much-needed spotlight on the Iranian regime’s shameful treatment of Mohammadi and other rights defenders.>>
3. But it also puts the spotlight on a few other things. Diaspora figures who sought to hijack the #WomenLifeFreedom to push their own agenda often slandered Mohammadi (and others) precisely because of her opposition to broad sanctions.>>
Read 9 tweets
Trita Parsi Profile picture
Aug 24, 2023
🧵This is a rather stunning development. Few expected there to be such a concrete step for expansion, as well as the inclusion of Iran in it. A few thoughts:
2. This shows that a key leverage the US had versus Iran - Washington being the gatekeeper for who is in and who is out of the community of nations - is now almost completely lost. This is a leverage the US had during the earlier JCPOA negotiations. >>
3. As the world moves away from unipolarity, the US is also losing the GateKeeper power. No one single state can any longer decide who is in the community of Nations and who is a pariah. >>
Read 6 tweets
Trita Parsi Profile picture
Aug 9, 2023
🧵Biden began his presidency by promising to make Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman a pariah and now–in the mother of all flip flops – is considering offering up American women and men to die for that same crown prince. >>

wsj.com/articles/u-s-s…
2. Instead of systematically seeking to reduce tensions in the region and bring US troops home, this is a giant step in the opposite direction that makes it more likely that Americans once again will be dragged into a military confrontation in the Middle East.>>
3. The Saudi-Iranian normalization in March was not organized against anyone. The Saudi-Israel normalization, however, explicitly targets Iran & China. That’s the difference between seeking de-escalation and creating blocks, which create structural obstacles to de-escalation.>>
Read 19 tweets
Trita Parsi Profile picture
Aug 4, 2023
🧵The Washington Post reports that Biden is preparing a "remarkable escalation" in the Persian Gulf that could lead to a US-Iran war. Biden is primarily responsible for having created this situation due to two policy paths he has chosen. >>

washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
2. First, he chose to negotiate America’s return to the JCPOA rather than reentering it via executive order while also disregarding many of the key factors that made Obama’s diplomacy with Iran successful.>>
3. Though Iran has created its fair share of problems in the talks by choosing a negotiated return, Biden also kept Trump’s sanctions in place - even though key Biden officials are on record blasting Trump’s max pressure strategy as a dismal failure.>>
Read 10 tweets

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