Trita Parsi Profile picture
15 Sep, 7 tweets, 2 min read
/THREAD/
Hate to rain on Pompeo, Bibi and MBZ’s parade, but here’s why this “deal” will intensify tensions and give another lease on life for America’s counterproductive military presence in the Middle East. >>
2. Contrary to Pompeo's talking points, this will not create peace or make it easier to bring home US troops from the region. The focus on the “Iran threat” is designed to lock the US into a Cold/Hot War in the Middle East for decades to come. >>
(newrepublic.com/article/159010…)
3. We will be hearing endless arguments going forward - from many different sides - that now that the Israelis and the "Arabs" (though its only UAE and Bahrain) - have united, the US is obligated to support them against the “Iranian menace.” >>
4. This new “obligation” will keep the US bound to their ever-growing security demands while forging a bipolar structure that will cement, not resolve conflicts. And as we know, blind US support has incentivized US partners to be more reckless and warprone
quincyinst.org/2020/07/17/end…
5. The defense, pro-Likud, and pro-Saudi lobbies will unite around the goal of keeping US forces in the region in order to protect Israel and “moderate” Arabs against Iran. Keeping them there will no longer be endless war, it will be the protection of the “peace.”
6. This will make it even more difficult to move the region towards a new, inclusive security architecture - which actually has the potential of offering real peace and stability. And if we follow QI’s recommendations, it would also bring US troops home.
7. In short, the American people just got played. Because America will now be stuck in the Middle East instead of coming home.

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More from @tparsi

14 Aug
So Trump & Pompeo just massively embarrassed the US on the world stage with a humiliating loss at the UNSC. Passionately fighting losing battles has become the hallmark of Trump and Pompeo's Iran policy, but this takes it to an entirely new level. >>
Only two votes in favor, two against and 11 abstentions.

It would be a mistake to solely look at this as yet another example of Trump's diplomatic vandalism as it misses the real point: The structural stupidity of US Middle East policy that long predates Trump. >>
From embarrassing the U.S. at the Council, Trump and Pompeo will now move on to create an existential crisis for the Council. Even if the US manages to trigger snapback, other P5 states will challenge the legitimacy of the move and leave the Council in an unprecedented crisis.>>
Read 9 tweets
25 Aug 19
/THREAD/

1. Zarif unexpectedly attending the G7 meeting may lead to a much-needed deescalation. If the reporting on Macron's proposal is correct, it would also be signal an abysmal failure of Bolton's maximum pressure strategy.
>>
2. Macron reportedly proposes that Iran returns to full compliance to the JCPOA in return for Trump reissuing sanctions waivers and thus removing his illegal sanctions against purchasing Iranian oil.
3. This would bring the situation back to the status quo pre-May 2019. The US will continue to violate the deal and sanction Iran, Tehran will continue to adhere to the deal but will also sell its oil. It's a status quo no one is happy with, but one that is relatively stable.
Read 6 tweets
19 Jul 19
/THREAD/

With the seizing of the British ship, the Iranians are clearly signaling: The countries who succumb to Trump's pressure and agree to become tools in his maximum pressure policy on Iran will pay a price for targetting Iran.

>
2. The UK seized an Iranian tanker 2 weeks ago, now Iran has seized a UK tanker. No one should be surprised by Iran's response. The more intriguing question is: Why did the UK agree to become a party to Trump's lose-lose game?
>
3. I am a bit surprised by the surprise. Some have called this a bold move by Iran. Perhaps that's a conclusion one could have reached if one assumed that Iran was a push-over. That's a perilous assumption.
>
Read 5 tweets
16 May 19
/THREAD/ Iran's counter-escalation comes across as making a bad situation worse. But there may be a sound logic behind it. Here's what I think the Iranian game plan is:

nbcnews.com/think/opinion/…
2. Tehran’s strategy is predicated on two assumptions:

A. There is an important — but not yet determinate — wedge between Trump and Bolton. As long as this wedge is limited, Trump’s pressure on Iran is costly to Iran but carries no cost to Trump. >>
3.
B. This wedge is rooted in Trump’s lack of interest in Bolton's desired war with Iran. Trump genuinely believes that maximum pressure will force Iran to capitulate and give him an easy victory (a highly unlikely turn of events.) >>
Read 5 tweets
8 May 19
/THREAD/ Tehran’s retaliation against the Trump administration’s violations of the landmark 2015 nuclear deal is making the costs and dangers of Trump’s disastrous Iran policy clear for all to see. 1/
The #IranDeal closed off Iran’s paths to a nuclear weapon. Now, a year after Trump pulled out, Iran is acting on its warnings that it cannot uphold the agreement unilaterally. As such, Trump has initiated a chain reaction that will make America and the world less safe. 2/
It is not surprising that Iran has taken this step. It is surprising that it's taken Iran so long to take this step. Trump had created a bizarre situation in which Iran was more sanctioned for abiding by a nuclear agreement than it was when the US accused it of violating one. 3/
Read 9 tweets
26 Feb 19
1. Zarif's resignation has mobilized the public and elements of the political establishment favoring moderation behind him, while revealing the common interest between Iran's hardliners and hawks in Israel, DC and Saudi.

If Zarif stays, he'll be in stronger position than before.
2. If Ayatollah Khamenei refuses to accept his resignation, Zarif will be serving BECAUSE of Khamenei's insistence. This will give him an important layer of protection against his hardline critics.
3. The public outcry in support of Zarif will make it all the more difficult for Rouhani and Ayatollah Khamenei to accept his resignation. It's a reminder that while hardliners have stepped up their attacks on Zarif, they enjoy far less public support than he does.
Read 4 tweets

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