11% is a long way from what we need to prevent a second wave, but even small improvements can have big benefits. There’s more to contact tracing than epidemic suppression. 2/12
Contact tracing finds people who are getting other people sick and helps them stop.
If you stop people from getting sick, you prevent suffering. Stop enough people from getting sick and deaths are prevented. Preventing suffering and death is a good goal all on its own. 3/12
The contact tracing situation is also holding back reopening. Contact tracing is the only Pima Co. Health Dept. benchmark still stuck in the red. 4/12
According to the memo to the Pima Supervisors, contact tracers were only able to reach 1,002 out of 2,392 (42%) of cases. 5/12
To simplify the process described in the memo, investigators call people who have tested positive and interview them. If nobody answers, they leave a voicemail.
If close contacts are identified, contact tracers call them, and leave a message if the person doesn't answer. 9/12
The memo describes a thorough contact tracing protocol, but it can't work if tracers can't contact people!
We need to improve this situation.
What can the community do?
What can Pima County Health Department do?
Let me know what you think. 10/12
My idea for improving the efficacy of contact tracing is weekly reporting of contact tracing statistics.
Weekly reporting of contact tracing statistics would raise awareness of contact tracing, which may result in more people answering contact tracing calls. 11/12
Here are the proposed metrics for contact tracing from the May 26 memo. I think these should be in the media every week to keep people thinking and talking about contact tracing. 12/12
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Newly reported ELR Diagnostic positives/tests from samples collected in last 7 days:
293/6,566 = 4.5%
Arizona Covid-19 cases, Diagnostic tests & positive rate by sample collection date as of June 6, with the cases added in the last 3 days color coded by date added.
Newly reported ELR Diagnostic positives/tests from samples collected in last 7 days:
313/6,061 = 5.2%
Arizona Covid-19 cases, Diagnostic tests & positive rate by sample collection date as of June 5 , with the cases added in the last 3 days color coded by date added.
-57 newly reported cases (38 added - 95 withdrawn)
• 32 from samples collected in the last 7 days.
7 day average is now 57.9;
• a week ago it was 37.6 (+54.0% change).
The 7 day average of newly reported cases is still distorted on the high side because of hundreds of old cases being newly reported on May 30. The cases by sample date charts are the most reliable indicator of current trends.
563 newly reported Pima ELR Diagnostic tests on June 5 (705 added - 153 withdrawn + 11 fudge factor).
Newly reported ELR Diagnostic positives/tests from samples collected in last 7 days:
351/7,506 = 4.7%
Arizona Covid-19 cases, Diagnostic tests & positive rate by sample collection date as of June 4 , with the cases added in the last 3 days color coded by date added.
4 newly reported cases (61 added - 57 withdrawn)
• 54 (1,350%) from samples collected in the last 7 days.
7 day average is now 73.7;
• a week ago it was 36.3 (+103.1% change).
The 7 day average of newly reported cases is still distorted on the high side because of hundreds of old cases being newly reported on May 30. The cases by sample date charts are the most reliable indicator of current trends.
820 newly reported Pima ELR Diagnostic tests on June 4 (1,038 added - 207 withdrawn - 11 fudge factor).